RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series circuit heads to Wine Country this weekend, with its first race at Sonoma Raceway since 2019. So much has happened in the sport since the series last visited northern California.
But one thing that has remained the same since then, Chase Elliott and Martins Truex Jr. are stellar on road courses. Since last visiting Sonoma 24 months ago, the No. 9 team has won five road course races. Truex has had near misses a couple of times.
Of course, they should be highlighted going into Sunday's 110-lap event. But who can bring value to your team? Let's find out.
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Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +400)
Coming into the weekend, Martin Truex Jr. is the highest priced driver on DraftKings. In FanDuel, he ranks second, only to the No. 9 team and he's also second on the board of favorites to win the race, according to DK SportsBook.
Look, over the past decade, not many drivers have been better at Sonoma than Truex. He's won three of the last seven races in northern California -- and led at least 51 laps in each of those races. In his 2017 championship season, he led 25 laps before blowing an engine.
The scary thing about Truex is, it's been feast or famine at Sonoma: He's either really, really good or is involved in some sort of skirmish on the track or has an engine expire. Don't let that fool you, though, as he's arguably the second best road races in Cup right now. Want another positive? Truex starts mid pack in 19th, meaning there's bunch of points to be gained should he make it to the front.
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +225)
So, who is the best current road racer in NASCAR? Hands down it's Chase Elliott.
As noted above, five of Elliott's six road course triumphs have come since the series last visited Sonoma. In all honesty, had there not been an untimely caution late in the February race on the Daytona road course, we'd be looking at Elliott entering the weekend with six consecutive wins on road courses. Unheard of.
But Sonoma has been a different beast for Elliott, which makes me hesitant to say he's the favorite on Sunday. He has a pair of top-10 finishes (best outing of fourth in 2018) and blew an engine in 2019 while running inside the top five. The No. 9 Chevrolet starts second, meaning if he gets out front early, it could be a long day for his competition.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +1000)
Ever since entering the Cup Series in 2006, Denny Hamlin has been a respectable road course racer. Surprisingly, he didn't get his first win going left and right until 2016 at Watkins Glen International.
But who can forget the battle Hamlin and Tony Stewart had earlier that season at Sonoma, which ultimately was Stewart's last Cup victory. A little bump and nudge doesn't hurt, unless you're on the wrong end of it, like Hamlin was that day.
Hamlin enters Sonoma with four consecutive top-10 finishes at the track. In his first 10 starts at the track, he had just two such finishes. The No. 11 Toyota is due for a win, and it wouldn't surprise me if it came Sunday.
Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $8,500 | DK SportsBook +5000)
Talk about someone that needs things to go right this weekend, it's Kurt Busch. Luckily, for him, the series heads out west.
Entering the 350 km race, Busch sits 19th in points, 83 points below the coveted cutline. Very surprising for a No. 1 team that had been ultra consistent his first two years at Chip Ganassi Racing.
Busch is no slouch at road courses, in fact, it's much the opposite. He dominated the 2011 race running for Team Penske, leading 76 of 110 laps. The following year in James Finch's No. 51 Chevrolet, he finished third with a damaged racecar. Since the 2011 win, he's got seven top-10 finishes and nine straight results of 13th or better.
Another potential positive, Busch starts deep in the field (30th) virtue of his last-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. In two road course races this season, the No. 1 car finished a season-best fourth at Daytona and was on pace to place inside the top 10 at COTA, until he lost control under braking in the wet conditions.
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Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $10,500| DK SportsBook +1800)
Another veteran that runs well at Sonoma is Kevin Harvick. And though not running nearly as poorly as Busch has this season, the No. 4 team needs a strong run to show its dominance from past seasons.
Everyone knows Stewart-Haas Racing is off from previous years, but fortunately, that doesn't really matter at a place like Sonoma. In 19 starts at the track, Harvick has 10 top-10 finishes, and is on a streak of five straight races of finishing sixth or better. Included in that is his 2017 victory. The following year, Harvick led 35 laps but crew chief Rodney Childers and the No. 4 team was fooled by Truex's pit strategy. Harvick could only get back to runner-up.
This weekend has the feel that it could be a breakout run for Harvick -- one that could potentially get him into the winner's column, like it did in 2017. With odds of 18-1 to win the race, that should peak your interest of laying some money down on the No. 4 Ford.
Christopher Bell
(DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,000 | DK SportsBook +3000)
Christopher Bell's 2021 season has been a mystery. It's been filled with a mixture of standout performances -- including his win on the Daytona road course -- and lackluster results at tracks you'd typically think the No. 20 Toyota would run well at. So I don't know what to predict for Sonoma.
However, it is known that Bell has never competed at Sonoma. On the same hand, he's a proven road course winner, scoring his first Cup victory just over three months ago at Daytona after running inside the top five for the majority of the race.
The No. 20 car starts 20th on Sunday, which is intriguing because of the potential of gaining points for your team. Surprisingly, his odds to win the race sit at 30-1, so that might be worth an investment.
Michael McDowell
(DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $8,000 | DK SportsBook +8000)
Even more of an investment would be Michael McDowell at 80-1. No, the No. 34 Ford likely won't win the race, but it's possible he has another top 10, which he already has a career-high five of them this season.
Prior to getting to NASCAR, McDowell was a proven road racer. This season, he's one of four drivers to have top-10 results in both road course races (the others are Joey Logano, Alex Bowman and AJ Allmendinger who isn't competing at Sonoma).
With the No. 34 car taking the green flag in 21st position, I think he's a little underpriced. So if you want a value pick to round out that lineup, McDowell is a good option. In eight starts at Sonoma, he's got a best result of 14th.
Ryan Newman
(DraftKings $6,300| FanDuel $5,000 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Speaking of underpriced, Ryan Newman is severely underpriced this weekend. Because honestly, he's another respectable veteran road course driver. And statistically, he's far better at Sonoma than a place like Watkins Glen, which are the two road courses the Cup Series had primarily visited throughout Newman's career up until 2018.
In 18 starts at Sonoma, Newman has eight top-10 results, including his seventh-place finish in 2019, his lone start at the track for Roush Fenway Racing. Compare that to Watkins Glen where he hasn't finished inside the top 10 since 2006, yup, Newman is a better value pick at Sonoma than in two months at the famed New York road course.
The road courses haven't treated Newman well this season, with finishes of 20th and 24, respectively. But his knowledge of getting around Sonoma could be the pick you need to fill out your lineup. The No. 6 team starts the race in 24th.
