NFL Rookie Spotlight - Trey Lance

May 10, 2021

Dominick Petrillo evaluates San Francisco 49ers rookie QB Trey Lance's fantasy value for the 2021 season in redraft and dynasty leagues.

When the San Francisco 49ers moved up from 12 to three in the 2021 NFL Draft, we were all told it was for Mac Jones. Some believed this façade and others not so much.

Whether you did or did not, it was Trey Lance who ended up going to the cozy confines of a Kyle Shanahan offense. This is great news for Lance believers like me and bad news for Jimmy Garoppolo and his truthers.

The big question remains, what can we expect from Lance in both this season and into the future? It is about time we take a look at the team around him and what we can expect. So let us dive in headfirst and see where to take the rookie in drafts.

Redraft Value

Currently, Lance is a +650 bet to win Rookie of the Year in 2021. While this payout is solid and as much as I love him, I would not make this bet yet.

With the common sentiment being that he needs some more time to develop, the likelihood Lance starts the year as the starter is not 100%. Add to this to the better-than-good chance Jimmy G is not going to be traded due to contractual reasons, and Lance is going to start the season on the bench.

Weapons like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel make this offense potent. Keeping Trent Williams to anchor the offensive line was also a key in what could be a Super Bowl favorite in San Francisco. Therefore, if Lance does eventually get into the starting lineup, whether by bad play or injury, he is set up to succeed. This is much like Justin Herbert did last season although it is fair to say that Lance has far more than Herbert did last season, especially on the offensive line. This means a season rivaling the 40 touchdowns of Herbert would not be out of the question.

Trey Lance will eventually take over this job and it may even be this season. But, it is not going to be early enough to make it worthwhile for you to draft him anywhere in your redraft league. Unless he wins the battle somehow in training camp, he is likely to only start half the season at most. A waiver wire add will be all it takes to get him on your roster. Instead of wasting the draft pick on a hunch, wait a bit and spend your FAAB on him. You will win more games that way.

Dynasty Value

This is where his value could really shine.

Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields are going to be drafted higher than Lance in most dynasty leagues. This makes sense as they all are going to be day one starters for Jacksonville, New York, and Chicago, respectively. But, the 49ers team surrounding Trey Lance is far superior to either roster surrounding the other two players mentioned.

With the previously mentioned George Kittle coming back healthy from his injury-ravaged 2020 and with Raheem Mostert in the backfield alongside rookie Trey Sermon, San Francisco will be formidable in the NFC West. Add in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk at the receiver position, and this can legitimately be considered a top-five offense in all the NFL. Adding in the return of Nick Bosa from injury and a potential return of Richard Sherman at cornerback and the making of a top-five defense also returns to the fold to complement the stellar potential on offense.

With few exceptions like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and to a lesser extent Josh Allen, Lance is one of only a few QBs who has the potential for a 1,000-yard rushing season. Add this into his experience of playing in a pro style offense at North Dakota State, and he has all the intangibles to go along with the strongest arm of the incoming class. While his floor may be the lowest, it is fair to say with the best team around him, he also has the highest ceiling.

Getting the opportunity to work under Shanahan and in a city like San Francisco where the fanbase is not as suffocating as say, New York, Lance will have the needed time to grow and mature before being thrown to the wolves. Those wolves being Aaron Donald and the rest of the defensive stars in the division. He is my favorite QB to take in dynasty rookie drafts, more so than Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields. While I would not take him in redraft, this does not extend to dynasty, where he is an easy first round pick. How high depends on the format.

In super flex or two-QB leagues, Lance is a top-two or three pick. In single QB leagues, depending on the rest of your roster needs, he is still a top-five to seven pick for sure. Do not be scared of the lack of college experience or season in 2020. Instead, be more afraid of someone like Zach Wilson who could not do anything for two seasons in BYU before COVID.

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