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Mike Kurland dives into the batting profile of Colorado Rockies 1B/2B Ryan McMahon to project his fantasy baseball value going forward in the 2021 MLB season.
The idea of this article is to discuss in depth a specific player’s current profile and production. We will dive into why he is succeeding or struggling and discuss if there are reasons for concern or brighter days ahead.
The intention here is to figure out what is going on and if there is a way to fix it or if we should ring the alarm bells in fantasy leagues.
First up is Colorado Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon. Please note, all rostered rates are based on Yahoo! formats.
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Ryan McMahon, 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies
91% Rostered
Ryan McMahon started off the year strong and has not slowed down all that much. He has already hit eight home runs in just 28 games. This is coming off a 2020 campaign where he hit nine total in 52 games. We are also seeing changes in plate discipline. He has a career-low walk rate (7%) and the lowest strikeout rate (22.6) since 2017. Furthermore, he is on pace to set career-best marks in most stats and is currently hitting .274/.322/.547 and this batting average is with a .288 BABIP. This is in line with 2020 and still 23 points below his career-norm rate. Of course, this has led to more career-high rates (so far) in wOBA (.369) and wRC+ (118).
So what has changed? Well, McMahon has made a few changes to his game.
First, he is getting the ball in the air more. With the average launch angle up to 17.9 degrees, it has helped with reducing ground balls tremendously. For reference, the average launch angle has never touched double digits prior to 2021 with the highest being 9.2 degrees in 2020. The ground ball rate has sat at 48.7% for his career and he is coming off two-straight seasons where his ground ball rate was just over 50%. Currently, it is at 35.8%. This has allowed for more line drives (25.9) and fly balls (32.1%). Both of which are currently career-best marks.
When taking a look at the expected stats, they all suggest the production to this point has been earned.
| Statcast Data | ||||
| Player | Stats | BA | SLG | wOBA |
|
Ryan McMahon
|
Actual | .274 | .547 | .369 |
| Expected | .286 | .562 | .373 | |
| Difference | 12 | 15 | .004 | |
McMahon has improved when compared to 2020 so far, but he showed flashes of this production in 2019 prior to the rough 2020. This suggests this output in hard hit rate and other metrics are not a fluke as there appears to be some form of a track record here.
| Statcast Data | |||||||||
| Player | Year | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | HH% | Barrel% | SwtSp% | Max EV |
|
Ryan McMahon
|
2019 | .242 | .427 | .323 | .420 | 48% | 9 | 36.6 | 112.9 |
| 2020 | .201 | .384 | .297 | .398 | 43% | 11.2 | 27.1 | 109.7 | |
| 2021 | .286 | .562 | .373 | .462 | 48.1% | 11.1 | 34.6 | 111.5 | |
Not to mention, the improvement comes with a change in approach which makes it more believable.
The dip in K% and BB% can be explained by his approach change. McMahon has increased the Swing% while also increasing contact rates across the board without adding swing-and-miss to his game. This is also coming with an increase in first pitch swing% (44.3%) which is the highest mark since 2018. Again, he is being more aggressive and making more contact simultaneously.
| Plate Discipline | |||||||||
| Player | Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% | 1st Pitch Sw% |
|
Ryan McMahon
|
2019 | 29.2% | 76.7% | 49.5% | 54.5% | 78.3% | 70.3% | 14.7% | 41.6% |
| 2020 | 29.2% | 70.2% | 46.8% | 48.6% | 79.9% | 68.8% | 14.6% | 28.5% | |
| 2021 | 29.7% | 79.3% | 51.2% | 52.1% | 81.9% | 72.1% | 14.3% | 41.5% | |
When you look at it, it is as if he realized something in 2020 did not work, reverted back to his 2019 ways but with more success.
Lastly, it is worth noting that being away from Coors has not completely sapped his power as he has posted three of his eight home runs on the road and has posted a .821 OPS and a 119 wRC+ on the road. So this suggests he is not just a product of Coors. At the end of the day, the improved production comes with changes in the profile and that makes me believe it can be sustained. Pitchers will adjust and when they do, it will be on McMahon to do the same.
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