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The chaotic, wild, and confusing 2020 COVID season is now thankfully behind us, am I right fellow Red Sox fans? But now is the hardest part in terms of fantasy implications from the pandemic as we try to decipher how much of 2020's statistics are actually viable data for 2021 projections.
Small playing time samples, players out of their elements, completely different buildup to the season, literally everything was different and just weird. So let's see how RotoBaller's rankers consisting of myself, Pierre Camus, and Big Pick Nick Mariano sorted through the COVID filth for 2021 Mixed League rankings, starting with the fantasy minefield that is the catcher position.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
| Ranking | Tier | Player | Position |
| 1 | 1 | J.T. Realmuto | C |
| 2 | 1 | Salvador Perez | C |
| 3 | 2 | Will Smith | C |
| 4 | 2 | Yasmani Grandal | C/1B |
| 5 | 3 | Willson Contreras | C |
| 6 | 3 | Travis d'Arnaud | C |
| 7 | 3 | Christian Vazquez | C |
| 8 | 4 | Daulton Varsho | C/OF |
| 9 | 4 | Sean Murphy | C |
| 10 | 4 | Austin Nola | C |
| 11 | 5 | Gary Sanchez | C |
| 12 | 5 | James McCann | C |
| 13 | 5 | Mitch Garver | C |
| 14 | 5 | Jorge Alfaro | C |
| 15 | 6 | Carson Kelly | C |
| 16 | 6 | Alejandro Kirk | C |
| 17 | 6 | Pedro Severino | C |
| 18 | 6 | Buster Posey | C |
| 19 | 6 | Yan Gomes | C |
| 20 | 6 | Yadier Molina | C |
| 21 | 6 | Wilson Ramos | C |
| 22 | 6 | Joey Bart | C |
| 23 | 6 | Danny Jansen | C |
| 24 | 6 | Roberto Perez | C |
| 25 | 6 | Ryan Jeffers | C |
| 26 | 6 | Jacob Stallings | C |
| 27 | 6 | Sam Huff | C |
| 28 | 6 | Martin Maldonado | C |
| 29 | 6 | Elias Diaz | C |
| 30 | 6 | Jonah Heim | C |
| 31 | 6 | Max Stassi | C |
| 32 | 6 | Omar Narvaez | C |
| 33 | 6 | Tyler Stephenson | C |
| 34 | 6 | Tom Murphy | C |
| 35 | 6 | Kurt Suzuki | C |
| 36 | 6 | Chance Sisco | C |
| 37 | 6 | Francisco Mejia | C |
| 38 | 6 | Victor Caratini | C |
| 39 | 6 | Luis Torrens | C |
| 40 | 6 | Adley Rutschman | C |
Tier One
J.T. Realmuto is unanimously the top choice behind the plate for fantasy owners, and deservedly so. Since 2015, no catcher has more plate appearances than Mr. Reliable. While he might not lead the position at any given category, you know Realmuto is going to give you volume and steady contributions in all five categories, something that cannot be said for any other at the position. The shortened 2020 saw a five-year low .266 BA, but was accompanied by a career-high 13.6 Barrel% that ranked top 88% in the league. He finished tied atop the position with 11 HR and four SB, while his sprint speed trailed only speedy youngster Daulton Varsho among catchers.
Fresh off a record-setting catcher contract with the Phillies, JTR should slot right back into the cleanup spot for the Phillies in 2021. ATC projects a 79/25/80/9/.268 season, and while one may argue whether that production at the position is worthy of a top-50 pick, you can't argue with the confidence in Realmuto being the top-ranked fantasy catcher.
While Realmuto probably deserves a tier to himself, Salvador Perez enjoyed a fantastic 2020 sample, and hovering right at the century mark in our ranks, he squeaks into tier one for 2021. After missing all of 2019 for Tommy John surgery, we didn't know what to expect out of Perez in 2020. Then tack on testing positive for COVID right off the bat, and it was truly unexpected to see the power return along with the early-years BA. Sure it was a small sample of 156 PA, but Salvy ranked in the top 98% for xBA and xSLG. The .375 BABIP certainly won't carry over but it is worth noting he lowered his LA which led to his highest LD% since his 2011 rookie season.
The potential for 30 HR is there with a BA similar to Realmuto, along with similar RBI projecting to hit third in the Royals lineup potentially behind Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi. Where the rank disparity comes into play between the two, aside from safety level, is runs scored and SB. While the Royals did add Carlos Santana this off-season to pair with Jorge Soler's power bat in the middle of the lineup, a career .300 OBP limits the run-scoring category. Maybe it was the year off in 2019, or the fact that he's been in the league for three more seasons, but it is often overlooked that Perez is less than a year older than Realmuto.
Tier Two
It's honestly not difficult to imagine Will Smith finishing the season as fantasy's top catcher, especially when you look at a by-PA basis. But therein lies the only downfall. In 2020, Will Smith saw 137 PA compared to 104 for Austin Barnes. A similar trend could very well carry over into 2021, as ATC projects Smith at 416 PA, which is easily lowest among the top seven at the position. With that being said though, his tier-two ranking shows just how good this kid is when he is in the lineup. Just 25 years old, a catcher, and boasted xwOBA and Whiff% in the top 95 percentiles last year. He also hit eight bombs with a .289 BA. The sky really is the limit with Smith, unfortunately, the sky is controlled by Dave Roberts who has a very defensively-sound option B (Barnes) for his lineups every night.
If you've ever played in a points league, at some point you've certainly targeted Yasmani Grandal and his appealing OBP. If Realmuto is Mr. Reliable, Grandal is Mr. Consistent. JTR might have him slightly beat in PA, but it is Grandal who owns the highest wRC+ among catchers since 2015. He now gets to enjoy his first FULL (hopefully) season with the Chicago offense, and with James McCann gone and possessing elite framing skills, he could very well lead the position in PA. Moderate power, low BA, high OBP, healthy run-scoring and producing. You know what you are getting from Grandal. 2020 was no different as he boasted a top 12 BB% in the league. His BA will remain putrid against offspeed/breaking pitches, but he did post his lowest swing rates and highest LD% of his career last season, so at the very least we could see the BA climb back into the .245 range from 2017-2019.
Tier Three
Tier three is the last tier of catchers that I like to call "No-Brainers." I don't have questions or doubts that could put their ADP value in jeopardy. Good hitters in good lineups with good playing time.
After experiencing a career-low BA and seeing his SLG drop over 100 points in 2020, fantasy owners were probably disappointed in Willson Contreras after tantalizing us all with 24 HR and a .272 BA the season prior. Unfortunately, there's not really anything in his batted ball profile or plate discipline numbers that would point towards a rise back to that .272 BA in 2021, if there was he would surely be a tier higher in these rankings. But the good news is 2020 saw career-highs in EV, LA, and Hard%, which leads me to believe that SLG could be headed right back into that 2019 territory. He's still just 26 years old and hits in the heart of a lineup surrounded by the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez. You won't be disappointed after drafting Contreras this season.
What's the opposite of disappointment? Whatever it is, it was Travis d’Arnaud in 2020. I mean, talk about a Statcast dream-season. Fantasy owners have been waiting for the TdA breakout since he was a highly-touted prospect with the Mets. Of course its the Mets so we did not see it, until his 31-year-old season with the division-rival Braves. Again, yes 2020 was a wild short sample size, but we are talking about top 10% in the league in EV, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, and second to only Fernando Tatis Jr. in hard hit percentage. I'm not saying that we'll never see him hit at that level again, but I'd place all of my money on the under for the .411 BABIP and 144 wRC+ carrying over to 2021. Regardless, he obviously found something that works for him, and there's no reason to expect a hard-hitting catcher in the middle of the Braves lineup not returning great fantasy value.
I am absolutely a Red Sox homer, but Christian Vazquez in my mind is still the most undervalued catcher in fantasy. He doesn't have the ceiling like Willson Contreras, and I guess not even d'Arnaud if 2020 was his ceiling, and he is far from a standout with his Statcast and peripherals. But the dude is a gritty baller who has out-slugged Yasmani Grandal the past two seasons. In the past three years, the Red Sox have gone from happy to have his glove behind the plate, to needing his bat in the lineup. The production will never be flashy or sexy, but it will continue to surprise, like the .290 BA in 2017, or 23 HR in 2019, or the four SB in 2020. Never count out the Vaz.
Tier Four
Tier four is a collection of catchers that have high potential but limited big league track records. This is where the question marks start coming into play. Will the volume of playing time be there? How will they handle big-league pitching over a full season?
What if you could get 18 HR, 21 SB, and a .301 BA from your fantasy catcher? Well, it is not likely, but those are the numbers Daulton Varsho put up over 452 Double-A PAs in 2019. He completely skipped Triple-A with there being no minor leagues in 2020 and struggled to a .188 BA in the bigs, so there is a real possibility he starts the season in the minors. The catcher position with the Dbacks is blocked by Carson Kelly and Stephen Vogt, and they could very well be intent with Tim Locastro and Josh VanMeter playing outfield. Oh yeah, did I mention this guy is athletic enough to also play outfield? He is the Version 2.0 of Blake Swihart. You may need to draft a fill-in for the early part of the season but fantasy owners who take the chance could be rewarded handsomely.
Sean Murphy has a nice even 200 PA at the big league level. Despite only owning a .237 BA over that span, his .254 ISO is very intriguing. In 2020, he was in the top nine percent in EV and Hard Hit%. He also saw a 12 point increase in his fly-ball percentage, even though it came at the expense of his line-drive rate. But what I love even more than the pop is the patience he showed at the plate in 2020. His 17.1 BB% led all catchers with at least 100 PA and was top 10 in the league. The volume should definitely be there, and from the middle of the Athletics lineup his power could do some damage, but just how far can the BA continue to fall?
Despite only having 451 big league PA under his belt, it always shocks me when I see that Austin Nola is already 31 years old. I guess eight years in the Marlins system can have that effect. But across the 451 PA, Nola has accrued 17 HR with .271 BA which is definitely in the Christian Vazquez output region. Hitting at the bottom of a stacked Padres lineup should provide ample opportunity to drive in runs, the question mark is how many opportunities will it be with the addition of Victor Caratini this off-season? We know Caratini will probably be catching Yu Darvish every five games, but how much more playing time will he eat is to be unseen at this point. For reference, ATC projects Nola for 420 PA while THE BAT projects 447. He is certainly the safest option in the tier, but does not possess the same ceiling as Murphy and Varsho.
Tier Five
I know we aren't supposed to put too much stock into 2020 statistics, but it is extremely hard to ignore the season Gary Sanchez had. Ultimately losing his spot to Kyle Higashioka in the playoffs when it mattered most capped off a year to forget which saw the lowest BA in the league (at least 100 PA) and a dismal 68 wRC+. Over one-third of his at-bats ended via the strikeout. The good news is he still hit 10 HR and was top three percent in the league for Barrel%.
It feels like a while ago but Sanchez is just one year removed from hitting 34 HR with a more-respectable .232 BA. His shot at reaching 525 PA again like 2017 is probably long gone thanks to his glove and Higashioka, but FWIW he has hit 30+ bombs in every odd-year season in the bigs. (I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious...) If you target speed and average at the front end of your draft, no other catcher has the potential to make up for lost-power like the Kraken.
Despite being a career .249 hitter, James McCann really came into his own at the plate once he left Detroit. Over the past two seasons with the White Sox he owns the second-highest BA among catchers and the fifth-most runs scored, and that was while playing with Yasmani Grandal. Now McCann gets his chance to be the main guy behind the plate for the Mets, and while there is not much to get excited about, he presents a nice safety net for those waiting at the catcher position in fantasy drafts.
If Gary Sanchez was a disappointment in 2020, Mitch Garver was a complete disaster. After breaking out with 31 HR in JUST 359 PA in 2019, owners who took the chance on a repeat performance were hitting the waiver wire pretty early for a new catcher. There was plenty of time missed due to injury in an already-shortened season, but when he was healthy Garver looked completely lost at the plate. He hit just .167 and struck out at an eye-popping 45.7% clip in his 81 PA. Of course, we are only talking about roughly a month's worth of playing time, but hitting a whopping .000 when behind in the count shows something went wrong with the approach. Probably the worst part of 2020 for Garver was rookie Ryan Jeffers emerging as a viable option behind the plate for the Twins. Jeffers was better offensively (obviously) and defensively by a long-shot and even if Garver does bounce back in some fashion, the damage may already be done in terms of playing time. If you believe the sustained EV in 2020 shows the results will return, just know that expecting more than 350 PA may prove unwise.
If you have waited this long at the catcher position you are probably looking for an upside flier, and Jorge Alfaro once again carries that title. The owner of an absurd .380 BABIP over his 1073 career PA, Alfaro finally saw his BA bottom-out in 2020 finishing with a .226/.280/.344 slash. He is still "only" 27 years old and is fully capable of taking a step forward at the plate. If he is looking for a place to start he absolutely needs to cut down on his chase rate. He owned the third-highest O-Swing% in the league last year, but that was paired with the eighth-lowest O-Contact%. That is a terrible combination and explains his 36% strikeout rate and minuscule walk rate. If those numbers were ever able to even out the end results could be very promising, considering the very intriguing batted ball profile Alfaro possesses. He was the only hitter in the league with an Oppo% and Hard Hit% both over 40.
Tier Six and Below
In 2019, Carson Kelly showed some real promise in his first season with the Diamondbacks. Across those 365 PA, he hit 18 HR with a .242/.348/.478 slash. Not bad at all for his first full taste of the big leagues. The 13.2 BB% particularly sticks out, because when you fast forward to 2020 that walk rate dropped to 4.7%. The other big difference between the two seasons was his southpaw splits. Kelly destroyed lefties in 2019 (if you play DFS you know) to a tune of a 1.128 OPS. Now back to the small sample of 2020 and his splits reversed and he owned a sad .466 OPS versus lefties. Now with LHB Stephen Vogt on the bench behind him, and Daulton Varsho possibly being moved anywhere on the diamond in order to get him PA, owners who draft Kelly are hoping 2020 was nothing more than a COVID-chaos fluke. If it wasn't, the playing time could get hairy in a hurry.
Alejandro Kirk is quite possibly the most intriguing name amongst catchers this fantasy season. There is a strong possibility that he doesn't even break camp with the Blue Jays, but there is little chance that with the team expecting to contend in the AL East that Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire (still awkward) keep this kid out of the lineup for long. Just 22 years old, Kirk hit 7 HR with a .290/.400/.465 slash across 372 Minor League PA in 2019. He possesses an insane Joey Votto plate approach, evident by the 1.43 BB/K ratio. He only got a small 25 PA sample in the bigs last season, but of course, he hit .375 with a 95 mph EV and 50% Hard hit rate. There is no question Kirk will hit when, not if, he gets his shot this year.
Pedro Severino had one hell of a hot streak in 2020 (again, DFS players remember), and it almost made it feel like he had a really good fantasy season for the O's. But overall he still ended the campaign with just five dongs and a .250 BA, which pretty much is right on par with his 2019 season numbers. The catcher of the day for Baltimore usually hits in the middle of the lineup, but now with Trey Mancini back (shoutout to him) there won't be many DH opportunities for Sisco or Severino this year. That means you can expect a pretty even split in playing time behind the plate and both will be looking over their shoulder awaiting the Adley Rutschman call.
Saving the legends for last, we have Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, and Wilson Ramos, all who have been staples of the catcher position in fantasy for years. Buster Posey took 2020 off so he should be in as good as shape as a 33-year-old backstop can be, and should slot right back into the middle of the Giants lineup where he has been for so long.
Ramos had a very down year in 2020 but got lucky with what appears to be a full-time gig in Detroit to take over Austin Romine's spot. Molina has re-upped to stay with the Cardinals, as it should be. All three options are safe, last-team-to-choose-a-catcher options, and also make for great "2 Catcher Anchors" that you can pair with a young high-upside catcher like Will Smith or Sean Murphy.
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