NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Wild Card Saturday Slate

January 9, 2021

Brian Entrekin analyzes optimal DFS cash game value plays for Wild Card Saturday slate of the NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy games.

We have made it through the NFL regular season and to the playoffs. We kick off the playoffs with something new for 2020, a MEGA-WILDCARD WEEKEND!!!!! Triple headers on Saturday and Sunday to get the playoffs started. On Saturday, we have one AFC game and two NFC games to look at for DFS purposes. Two games have spreads of a touchdown or more, and only one game has a total projected over 50 points. The Bucaneers and Bills should be rather popular, but there is some nice value to pay up for some of the studs on those two teams.

There is some nice value when looking at the Wild Card Saturday slate. Most of the value has more of a tournament appeal, but there is still some nice cash action for those looking to play a little cash on the weekend. When it comes to quarterback, it's pretty much paying up for Josh Allen for now. He will be chalky, but he is the play unless pivoting to Tom Brady or hoping Russell Wilson cooks. The running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions have some elite options when paying up, especially when stacking, and some nice value. I would most likely pay up at the tight end, grab a Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin, and then save some money. The way to be really different on this slate besides fading the Bills and Bucs is to stack a team or some players from the Rams/Seahawks game. Those two teams have already played two, low-scoring games and the game total is only 42.5, which will lead many to stay away from either offense.

This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's look at the cash value plays for the Wild Card Saturday slate of the 2020 NFL season.

Wild Card Saturday Quarterback Value Plays

Philip Rivers, IND at BUF | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900

The only way I am playing Rivers is to look for some savings at quarterback to get a couple of top-priced wide receivers. If playing Rivers, there are a few things that look good from a fantasy standpoint. He will be facing a Bills Defense that ranks 19 versus quarterbacks in the last four weeks, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game. The Colts are also seven-point dogs but do have a 22 point implied team total, meaning the air attack could be needed early and often on Saturday. The air attack could be used a lot since the Bills have allowed 37.4 pass attempts over their last nine games. Before the last two weeks, the Jonathan Taylor weeks, Rivers had scored 17 or more points in six straight games, which would not be too shabby at his price tag. Rivers brings a nice floor into Saturday's game with some upside if the Colts are behind early and often.

Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs TB | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,000

Keep an eye on the health of Alex Smith. If Smith somehow can't go on Saturday, then Heincke brings a nice duel threat into a game that he will need to score a lot to keep up with the Bucs.

Wild Card Saturday Running Back Value Plays

Cam Akers, LAR at SEA | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100

Over the last four weeks, Akers has asserted himself as the lead back for the Rams. He has 15 or more carries in four straight games, 21 or more in three of four games. He has also been targeted at least three times in three straight games. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four games over that four-game stretch yet has only scored one touchdown. Akers will take on a Seahawks Defense that has allowed over 24 fantasy points to opposing backs in the last four games and has given up nearly a touchdown a game on average to backs over the last nine games. Akers brings a solid floor into Saturday's game where the spread is 3.5, and most project it to be a low-scoring slugfest.

J.D. McKissic, WAS vs TB | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,400

With the football team struggling at quarterback in recent weeks, McKissic has seen his role return as a passing back. He has been targeted at least eight times in each of the last three games and has scored eight or more points in five straight games, with double-digit scoring in four of those five games. He is more of a DK play due to the PPR upside but still brings a FD tournament appeal. McKissic takes on a Buccaneers Defense that has allowed seven receptions and over 20 fantasy points per game to backs in the last four games. The Football Team are 8.5 point underdogs and should be throwing early and often to keep pace with Brady and Company.

Nyheim Hines, IND at BUF | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,600

Hines is a pure GPP play and only a play if you believe the Colts are often throwing to keep up with the Bills. Hines will not be used much in the running game but will see his share of targets. He has seen four or more targets in six of his last eight games, including seven targets in Week 17. Hines has also scored double-digit fantasy points in six of his last eight games, bringing some nice GPP appeal. Lastly, he takes on a Bills defense that has only allowed 80 rushing yards to backs over the last four weeks but has allowed over five receptions and near 25 fantasy points per game over that same four-game stretch. Most will look to Taylor if playing a Colts back, but do not forget Hines as a nice tournament value.

Wild Card Saturday Wide Receiver Value Plays

John Brown, BUF vs IND | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,700

Brown made his return to the Bills lineup last week, and it was his first action since Week 10. It did not take long for Brown to dust off the rust as he caught all four of his targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. Before his injury, Brown was being targeted on average four or so times a game and averaging over 10 fantasy points per game. From Week 1 to Week 10, Brown accounted for nearly 18% of the target share and 17% of the red-zone targets. He should be back to a similar workload on Saturday as Diggs gets all the attention, hopefully freeing up a couple of big plays we've come to expect from Brown.

Cam Sims, WAS vs TB | DK: $3,900, FD: $4,900

Like McKissic over the last three games, Sims has been a safety valve for the Football Team's quarterbacks. He has been targeted at five or more times in all three games, has scored nearly eight or more points in all three games, and has yet to find the end-zone. Sims has accounted for 29% of the team's air yards, 17% of the targets, and 17% of the red-zone targets. If Sims can find the end-zone, he could be a huge value as the targets and receptions should be there once again versus the Bucs pass defense that ranks 23 on the season versus wide receivers.

Zach Pascal, IND at BUF | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,300

Another value coming from the Colts on this Wildcard Saturday. Pascal is definitely a tournament only play as the Colts can be inconsistent with their passing game. With that being said, he has been targeted at least four times in three straight games, so maybe Rivers has found a liking to Pascal. Rivers especially like Pascal in the red-zone as he has a 25% target share over the last three games with three touchdowns. The Bills do have a nice secondary, but the Colts will likely be throwing a lot on Saturday, and Pascal should be a benefactor when Rivers is slinging it around.

Wild Card Saturday Tight End Value Plays

Gerald Everett, LAR at SEA | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,600

The value at the tight end is not great on Saturday. Everett is an option due to his reliable volume, being targeted at least three times per game in all but one game since Week 5. He is also going up against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18 over the last four games versus tight ends, allowing over seven receptions and 14 fantasy points per game over that four-game stretch. The LAR/SEA game players will likely be low-owned, so look for Everett as some low-owned value on Saturday. (Jack Doyle is another value if you have to punt.)

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