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JB reviews the 2020 MLB season and fantasy baseball value of Tampa Bay Rays relievers Nick Anderson and Diego Castillo. Which RP is the best ADP value heading to next season?
As I created my early 2021 Relief Pitcher rankings, I realized how wide open so many bullpens are right now due to free agency. But there is at least one team that can sleep well knowing the back end of their bullpen is solid as bedrock and that's the Tampa Bay Rays. Diego Castillo and Nick Anderson are one of the most lethal relief pitcher-duos in the land and happen to be my favorite.
Prior to 2020, I was imploring the masses to avoid the Nick Anderson hype-train and instead snag Diego Castillo for equal production 20+ rounds later. Of course, the 2020 season turned into something no one expected, but baseball was still played.
Was I right about Diego Castillo? Yes. But was I right about Nick Anderson? Not completely, but the 2020 playoffs sure showed a side of both these pitchers that I was certainly prepared for.
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Year in Review: Diego Castillo and Nick Anderson
After a fantastic rookie season that included being shipped across the state from Miami to Tampa, Nick Anderson was ALL the hype for 2020 Relief Pitchers. He certainly followed it up with an impressive encore, with 2 W, 6 SV, 0.55 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, and 26 K in just 16.1 IP across the shortened 2020 season and finishing as the RP6 in fantasy. Those stellar numbers came in as top-six ERA, top-three FIP, and the league-best WHIP among all relievers.
Anderson relied on his fastball more in the shortened season, and it appeared to set up his slider perfectly as he also led all relievers in O-Swing% and registered a filthy 21.5 SwStr%.
Diego Castillo certainly did not disappoint fantasy owners either. He finished with 3 W, 4 SV, 1.66 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 23 K across 21.2 IP and finished as the RP19. Practically doing away with his four-seam fastball, Castillo threw his slider at a surprising 64.7% clip, and despite the slight dip in K-rate from previous seasons the results were very promising. He posted career-bests in O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr% while boasting a 2.13 GB/FB and 24.1 Hard%.
As I said prior to the 2020 season, this guy is the perfect blend of velocity, stuff, strikeout potential, soft contact, and keeping the ball on the ground. He is essentially the Zack Wheeler of relievers. Castillo was one of only two relievers with a GB% above 60, Hard% below 25, and a K/9 above 9. (Victor Gonzalez was the other).
2020 Postseason
I already recapped the regular season from the Tampa Bay duo. Nick Anderson was amazing, and Diego Castillo was very good. But with the season on the line in the playoffs, my initial fears from Anderson began to unfold.
In his breakout season in 2019, Fangraphs tagged Nick Anderson with having pitched 15 "high leverage" innings. He surrendered 14 ER across those 15 innings. During his fantastic 2020 regular season, he managed only a 0.29 GB/FB ratio with a 41.4 Hard%. Despite the amount of hard contact and flyballs, he enjoyed a measly 4.8 HR/FB%.
The stuff is elite, there is no disputing that, but I knew even the best would eventually fall of that tight rope. Anderson went on to surrender 9 ER in 14.2 playoff innings, blowing a save in Game 4 of the World Series, taking the loss in the final Game 6, and gave up at least one earned run in his last seven consecutive appearances.
Diego Castillo on the other hand, proved he has ice in his veins when it mattered most. He pitched four scoreless innings against the Yankees in the ALDS. He secured two saves against the Astros in the ALCS. He got his third save in Game 2 of the World Series. Combined, he allowed only two earned runs across 11 postseason innings, one year after pitching five scoreless innings in the 2019 playoffs.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again before the 2021 season; one is a closer, and one is the best set-up man in baseball. But of course, Kevin Cash does not care what I say (and for good reason, considering he won Manager of the Year).
2021 Season Outlook
Saves are such a fickle stat to try and predict, which makes rankings relief pitchers so difficult - especially when they pitch for a manager like Kevin Cash who could honestly throw Pete Fairbanks into the closer role at any point in 2021. But for what it's worth, Steamer projects Nick Anderson for 11 Saves and seven for Diego Castillo. Total amount aside, that's roughly a two-thirds vs one-third split for the duo. Due to past performances and my views on how both fit, I actually predict the split will be flipped in 2021. I certainly believe we have seen the best of Nick Anderson. Despite the short resume, he turns 31 this season. Diego Castillo though, is still yet to turn 27 and I see him continuing to make strides in his game.
According to current early NFBC ADP, Nick Anderson is being drafted as the 146th player with Diego Castillo trailing more than 100 spots behind at 295. This presents another great opportunity for massive value with Castillo. My advice for 2021 remains the same as it was for 2020: do not let him fall to someone else late in the draft.
I am fine with taking Nick Anderson at his ADP due to the strikeouts and modest saves he will return. But I am not letting Castillo fall any farther than the early 200s and will 100% draft him prior to the Matt Barnes and Craig Kimbrel types left on the board.
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