The Masters DFS Prop Picks - Round 1 MKF (11/12/20)

The 2020 Masters Tournament is teeing up at Augusta in November. Not exactly the traditional time of year for this major tournament but this year has caused some major upheaval. Nevertheless, a little scheduling shuffle and there will be a Masters and that means lots of props to play with Monkey Knife Fight.

Bryson DeChambeau may be the most compelling golfer in the field because his unmatched length of the tee threatens to crush the course. There are golfers who can finesse their way around the course and there are those that can try to bring a course to its knees. DeChambeau is the latter.

Even if DeChambeau is the favorite going in, and he is in the betting markets, there are a lot of quality contenders because this is a major tournament, where the big boys come to play, year-in and year-out. So, if it’s not going to be DeChambeau, it could be Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy…there should be lots of quality golfers in the mix.

As with most golf tournaments, still, there is going to be interest in Tiger Woods because old habits die hard and, for as much as Tiger has struggled over the past year, he also won the tournament in 2019. Can he turn back the clock one more time?

Here are some angles to consider for Thursday’s first round of The Masters on Monkey Knife Fight.

THE MASTERS - ROUND ONE

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MORE OR LESS

Bryson DeChambeau MORE THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

Bombing his way around The Tour, DeChambeau is averaging 344.4 yards per drive in a couple of tournaments in the 2021 calendar year. He’s going to attack Augusta and his distance off the tee leads to DeChambeau gaining an absurd 3.25 strokes per round from tee to green.

In 2020, his driving average was 322.1, which was also best on The Tour, and he gained 0.91 strokes per round from tee to green. All of that said, DeChambeau has not had a lot of success at The Masters. In 12 rounds at Augusta, DeChambeau has scored 70 or better just twice.

Dustin Johnson LESS THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

In his past six tournaments, DJ has two wins, three second-place finishes and a sixth-place finish. How can you argue against that dominance? Oh here, let’s make it even better. In his past four Masters, Johnson has finished second, tenth, fourth, and sixth. Six of his past seven rounds at Augusta have been 70 or better.

Brooks Koepka MORE THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

Koepka finished in a tie for fifth at the Vivint Houston Open but he’s been spraying his driver in the past couple events, with a driving accuracy percentage of 47.2%. That doesn’t necessarily play well at Augusta but it’s consistent with Koepka’s relatively poor overall performance in 2020. The question is whether Koepka can raise his game as he has tended to in the majors. In four previous trips to The Masters, Koepka has finished 33, 21, 11, and 2 last year. He might be able to dial it up but the overall record of his play in 2020 isn’t encouraging.

Patrick Cantlay MORE THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

Cantlay has been active in the fall season, playing in four tournaments and winning his last start at The Zozo Championship. He didn’t have outstanding results in 2020 but did have some quality underlying numbers. His total strokes gained of 1.32 strokes per round ranked tenth on tour. In three previous appearances at The Masters, Cantlay has finished 47^th, missed a cut, and then ended up ninth last year. His last two rounds in 2019 were in the sixties but those were the only two times he’s done that in ten rounds.

Rory McIlroy MORE THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

The short game has presented challenges for McIlroy but he’s bombing off the tee. In three 2021 events, he is averaging 325.3 yards on his drives, ranking fifth. He ranked fourth in 2020 driving distance, too, so that has been a consistent strength. Unfortunately for McIlroy, the putter has been a consistent problem – in 2020 he ranked 122^nd in strokes gained while putting. He does, however, compete at Augusta. In his past six tries, McIlroy had five Top 10 finishes before ending up 21st last year. Still, that putter is worrying.

Tiger Woods MORE THAN 70.5 TOTAL STROKES

Tiger appears to be a shell of his former self right now. In his past seven tournaments, he hasn’t earned a single finish in the Top 30. His last tournament win was the Zozo Championship in October 2019. Basically, if his name wasn’t Tiger Woods there would be little reason to believe he can contend at Augusta in 2020. But his name is Tiger Woods, he’s the defending champion, and has finished in the Top 6 in nine of his past 12 trips to The Masters. Can he crank it up for another weekend?

RAPID FIRE

Justin Thomas -0.5 total strokes vs. Xander Schauffele

Schauffele is not a massive hitter but has been excellent around the green lately, ranking tenth in strokes gained around the green and 12th in strokes gained putting during the 2021 season. In the 2020 season, he ranked third overall in total strokes gained (1.61 per round) and it’s his consistently solid play that makes him so competitive. He has finished in the Top 25 in 11 straight tournaments. Schauffele has only played in two Masters, finishing 50^th in 2018 and then second last year.

Thomas isn’t necessarily a crusher either but he is a tremendously consistent ball striker. In 2020, he ranked first in strokes gained from tee to green and second in strokes gained overall and that consistency keeps him competitive – he has finished in the Top 12 in his last four tournaments. Thomas has also been getting better each year at Augusta, finishing 39, 22, 17, and 12 in his four appearances, and five of his past seven rounds have scored 70 or better.

Brooks Koepka -0.5 total strokes vs. Tony Finau

As detailed above, Koepka’s performance over the past year has not been encouraging and it effectively requires you to believe that he can turn up his performance for a major tournament, regardless of his overall performance elsewhere.

In Finau’s case, he’s a steady player who ranked 12^th in strokes gained in 2020 and is 12^th in strokes gained early in the 2021 season. Koepka may be more likely to win, because he has shown that he can do it on the biggest stage before, and Finau’s only career PGA win occurred in the 2016 Puerto Rico Open.

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