2021 First Look Fantasy Values: Outfielders

Nicklaus Gaut uses the first Steamer projections for the 2021 season to project early fantasy values, comparing them to early ADP, covering outfielders in part three.

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently, in regards to accuracy and do better in some years better than others. Some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

We started with first and second base, seeing the ascension of Baby Vlad to full-size status and Nick Madrigal standing tall. And then we tried to burn it all down with the most contentious topic America could ever discuss...Adalberto Mondesi, top-five (overall!) fantasy asset. Luckily, RotoBaller is all paid-up on our "Thunderdome" insurance policy, so now we can move on to the outfield and let me get back to doing what I do best...Waxing poetic about Randy "Macho Man" Savage-zarena.

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Methodology

*If you've already read part one on 1B and 2B or part two on SS, thank you! Please skip ahead to p. 349 (Outfielder) to avoid rereading.

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is applied to each category (although the method is different for ratio stats) and each z-score is added together. This total z-score is then divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, using your chosen split.

This isn't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minimum and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this when we get to them but the values for the other positions are being done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might only be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

Outfielders

We start with a big disagreement right at the jump, as Steamer strongly disagrees with Mookie Betts being on top of the 2 Early mocks. Well, pardon me but I think I strongly disagree with Steamer. I'm not saying he's my number-one but these projections feel pretty light, especially on batting average.

Since when is Betts a .272 hitter?

Projecting Betts to a .284 AVG instead (seven more hits) and keeping everything else the same, would move Betts from sixth to third, finishing behind only Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Speaking of Ronald Acuna Jr., he is in a place where Steamer and ADP definitely agree on his phenomenoness. The only difference is that Steamer thinks he's not only the number-one outfielder but exists in a class of value all by himself:

Remember when people were worried about Acuna after he started slow, hitting just one home run and stealing one base in his first 15 games and slashing .214/.353/.357? That worry was quickly forgotten after Acuna proceeded to hit 8 HR in his next 11 games, finishing the year with a .413 wOBA and 157 wRC+.

But he also added an all-new wrinkle to his game...Did you know that he had an 18.8% BB%?  There is zero doubt about his power and Atlanta doesn't seem inclined to take away his green light on the basepaths anytime soon. So pitchers can either challenge Acuna and take their chances with the wicked hit stick, or put him on and let him potentially steal his way around. Regardless, that's fantasy gold for us, players.

Just because Juan Soto comes in second in fantasy values doesn't make him any sort of second fiddle. Having only recently turned 22-years-old, Soto continues to put up silly numbers, and going to his Baseball Savant page shows you a sea of red:

Just for good measure, Soto also had a .494 xwOBAcon and 20.9% BB% that was in the top-1% in 2020, in addition to the 1% accolades above, as well as a 14.3% K% that was in the top-9%. He just doesn't have any holes. Like, at all. And no, not on the basepaths either, as Soto continues to be a crafty base stealer. He had 12 SB (1 CS) in 2019 and then had 6 SB (2 CS) in just 47 games in 2020. Steamer projects 12 SB in 2021 but I see that as more of a floor and think 15+ SB is at least on the table.

Well, Steamer thinks the White Sox outfield is going to be pretty decent, with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert clocking in as the sixth- and seventh-best fantasy outfielders.  Robert and his speed potential is going to make him more appealing to fantasy players, in fact going about nine picks before Jimenez in early ADP. But Steamer sees Eloy as the better overall option, being projected significantly better in every category besides stolen bases, including a nearly 30-point advantage in batting average.

Jimenez raised his average exit velocity on FB/LD from 96.6 mph to 97.7 mph and his barrel-rate from 12.8% to a 16.4% Brl%, putting him in the top-4% of baseball. His K% and BB% both roughly stayed the same from his rookie year, as did his xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon, but his 55.7% hard-hit rate was an eight-point increase - and in the top-2% of hitters.

But Jimenez didn't just hit the ball harder, with more barrels. He did it across all pitch groups while seeing fewer fastballs, more breaking balls, and still passing with flying colors. Looking at his x-stats, his performance stayed steady against breaking and offspeed pitches but saw significant jumps against fastballs, even as he saw less of them.

Besides that, Jimenez's exit velocities on fastballs and offspeed pitches saw big jumps, giving more indicators that he's not getting fooled by non-fastballs and isn't missing when he does see one:

No one has ever paid off for me as well as Marcel Ozuna did in 2020 after I ran my mouth on him incessantly (and obnoxiously) throughout the offseason and drafted him on literally every last one of my redraft teams. The payoff was handsome, in terms of fantasy value, with Ozuna earning as a virtual consensus top-five hitter, hitting 18 home runs in 60 games, with 38 runs, 56 RBI, and a .338 AVG. More like, Boom-zuna, am I right? (I slay myself).

There's no sneaking up on your competition in 2021, however, with Ozuna clocking in at a 37 ADP. Steamer ( and me) still thinks that's a fair price, as the projections and ADP both have him as the ninth-best outfielder and a top-25 hitter. The biggest question is where the current free agent will land, as Ozuna spent 2020 in a favorable ballpark with two of baseball's best hitters hitting in front of him.

***We Now Interrupt Our Regularly Scheduled Programming to Bring To You the Latest Player That Nicklaus Will Talk About Incessantly From Now Until Forever Or Until He Runs Out of Gas. Which is Never...We're Sorry***

In a way, I'm more than a little annoyed that the entire world knows about Randy Arozarena after he broke records for the most home runs, hits, and total bases in a single playoff run. After following him through the minors as a Cardinals fan and then being furious that Tampa Bay rooked John Mozeliak again, I had fully planned on sneakily drafting my man Savage-zarena on every team in 2021. Alas, the only cheap profit I'm going to earn is picking up him up for pennies of FAAB after the Rays traded Jose Martinez, because Randy won't be going cheap after hitting 10 home runs during Tampa's postseason run.

Putting my man(dy) crush aside, I'm not the only one that thinks Arozarena is the real deal because Steamer essentially sees him as Luis Robert -lite ("Now without the 22% SwStr%, only while supplies last!)

I'll just leave this here:

Their early ADP suggests that fantasy players believe in 2020's production and are ready to move Trent Grisham and Teoscar Hernandez into a new tier of superstar, but Steamer is projecting caution. That's the rub with projections, isn't it though? Sometimes they can be slow on the uptick with players that either lack a ton of major league plate appearances or have recently leveled up in talent.

In Grisham's case, Steamer really only doubts the speed, projecting him for just 15 SB after he stole 10 bases in the abbreviated 2020 season. If you keep everything else the same but bump him to 25 SB (not outrageous considering he was pacing for 27 SB in 2020) than Grisham's value would jump from OF 26 (#58 overall hitter) to OF 13 (#32 overall hitter). This is right in line with his current draft price of OF 14 and the #36 overall hitter.

There is a much bigger sample for Hernandez, who lit up for 16 HR in 50 games, after hitting a combined 48 home runs in 259 games in 2018-2019 after coming over from Houston in a 2017 trade. Hernandez showing that much pop isn't a big surprise, as he's always had good exit velocities and hard-hit rates. But a .289 AVG in 2020 after a .230 AVG and .239 AVG the previous two seasons, is quite a leap.

That leap, however, is backed with a lot of x-shininess, with Hernandez's large jumps in average, slugging, and wOBA all backed up by their expected-counterparts:

Never soft-hitting, Hernandez took his hardness to a new level in 2020:

Having an elite barrel-rate and exit velocities doesn't guarantee success, or else Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and Gary Sanchez would be the best players in baseball. But it's a solid start. What's just as inspiring is Hernandez's continued improvements against the different pitch grouping, particularly against offspeed pitches and fastballs:

Steamer definitely doesn't agree with his early draft price. Hernandez was drafted around the 40th hitter (64th-overall) in the 2 Early mocks but Steamer projects him as just the 81st-hitter. Only 31 home runs feel light but the big discrepancy is the projected .240 AVG that his drafters have to be assuming is going to be a lot higher.

Speaking of breakouts that Steamer doesn't believe in, Dominic Smith is projected wa-aay below where he's being drafted around pick-100. I disagree pretty strongly with Steamer here, both in terms of his talent and playing-time projections. First, his projected 550 PA feels super-light after he took over full-time duties in New York last season and finished with 199 PA in 50 games. Granted, that was with a DH that the Mets won't have available* in 2021 but considering his competition, I think Smith's bat keeps him in the lineup most every day.

Update: Shortly after this was published, Buster Olney reported ($) that the universal DH is now a "safe bet" for 2021. This would seem to virtually assure that Smith has an everyday role.

In terms of talent, Smith was smoking the ball all season long. He had a .304 xBA (top-5%), .568 xSLG (top-6%), .374 xwOBA (top-8%), and .454 xwOBAcon (top-8%). And while moving from 88.3 mph to 89.8 mph was only a modest boost for his average exit-velocity, it was much more impressive seeing his max EV go from 108.5 mph to 110.7 mph and his EV on FB/LD jump from 91.8 mph to 94.9 mph. All in all, Smith ended with a 46.8% hard-hit rate that was up 12-points, not to mention a barrel-rate that rose nearly five-points to 13.5%.

The power is for real and so is the batting average, in my opinion. I really wish that his ADP wasn't already in the top-100 but I'm still pretty sure that I'll have plenty of exposure. Especially because of his dual-eligibility and the fact that I think first base is sneaky weak. I'm sorry but I'm just not excited about relying on Pete Alonso, Luke Voit, Paul Goldschmidt, or Matt Olson at their current ADP. In drafts where I don't end up with a premium option like Freddie Freeman or Jose Abreu, picking up Smith at his current price is going to feel pretty juicy.

This is the part of the article where I very quietly mention that one of my 2020 favorites, Victor Reyes, is projected by Steamer to return roughly the same value as Nick Castellanos. And this is the part where I quietly tiptoe away.

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