Giant Problems: Projecting Daniel Jones and Receivers ROS

Joe Gallina evaluates the New York Giants offense after Saquon Barkley's injury to determine what fantasy football value Daniel Jones and his receivers have in 2020.

No one expected the Giants to be able to challenge for a playoff spot in “real life” football this season, but fantasy football players were optimistic that their roster could be a good resource that might help them reach the playoffs in their own fantasy leagues. Now that the dust has cleared after what has been a cataclysmic week for the Giants, let’s take inventory and try to determine if their offense still has enough fantasy firepower left for fantasy football managers to exploit. Will the loss of Saquon Barkley create a negative domino effect that will cause the Giants offense to sputter and force fantasy players to look elsewhere for fantasy productive talent?

The Giants’ new offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, was obviously counting on Saquon Barkley and the Giants’ run game to be the focal point of the team’s offense. Barkley’s season-ending torn ACL put an end to that plan, but Garrett still has a lot to work with.

In short, the Giants’ offensive line has to improve for their offense to have a chance at making a fantasy impact. The Giants are confident that the addition of rookie LT Andrew Thomas and veteran OT Cam Fleming, along with the continued development of third-year Guard Will Hernandez will help solidify their offensive line as the season progresses. Collectively, the Giants offensive line has gotten off to a slow start. It does take some time for a young offensive line to gel and without any preseason games, it might take a little longer for that to happen. Let’s take a closer look at a few individual components of the Giants’ offense and try to forecast what their rest of season fantasy production might potentially look like.

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Quarterback

Daniel Jones

Jones has a strong arm and throws a crisp, accurate ball. His rushing ability is often overlooked. There was a lot to like about Jones’ rookie season. He threw for at least 300 yards in five games and recorded 24 passing TD in 13 games despite never having Barkley, WRs Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Golden Tate, or TE Evan Engram on the field at the same time.

Jones did have some issues. He tended to remain in the pocket, (waiting for plays develop), a bit too long. While that can sometimes be a good thing, it contributed to his leading the league in fumbles (18) and fumbles lost (11) last season. Garrett’s timing-based, fast-paced offense is designed to help Jones with that issue. It’s known for being QB friendly and many believe it was instrumental in the development of Dallas Cowboys QBs Tony Romo and Dak Prescott’s success.

So far this season, Jones’ pocket time (average time he’s had in the pocket before it collapses around him) has dropped from 2.5 last season to 1.2 this season. With less time to set and throw the ball, Jones’ on target percentage has dropped from 71.1 in 2019 to 39.2 this season. Improved play from the Giants’ offensive line can help in this area.

Fantasy Evaluation: Jones remains a work in progress, but there is hope. He possesses some real tools and should benefit from Garrett’s offensive scheme. He’s tied for 21^st in fantasy points scored per game per Fantasy Football today, valuing him as a potential starter in Superflex leagues and as a bye week replacement. Jones needs another season under his belt and some more talent around him before he can take that next step and reach QB1 status. The Giants’ schedule eventually eases up and his offensive line should play better as the season progresses, which should help his fantasy production.

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

Freeman’s got some mighty big shoes to fill. With his skills eroding over the past few seasons and the fact that he’ll be running behind what is currently a poor offensive line, don’t count on him to provide you with RB1 type fantasy production. He’s very good at catching the ball out of the backfield, averaging 54 receptions per season between 2015 and 2017.

Fantasy Evaluation: You probably saw some very sizeable FAAB dollars invested in Freeman this week, and just about any RB with a pulse has some fantasy value, but he’s probably more of a flex play or bye week replacement at this stage of his career. Based on his skill set he might have slightly more value in PPR scoring leagues.

Dion Lewis

With Freeman’s skills in decline, there’s a chance that Lewis will have a sizeable role in the Giants’ offense. His role probably won’t be big enough to give him much fantasy value, but he might be awarded the smaller share of a 60/40 or 65/35 split backfield workload. He’ll probably occupy a change of pace role moving forward and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield should give him some third-down opportunities as well. Don’t be too surprised if he gets a bunch of carries in Week 3 as Freeman eases back into game shape and spends time learning the Giants’ playbook.

Wayne Gallman was a healthy scratch in Week 2. That should give you an idea about what the Giants think about his abilities and his role on the team. Rod Smith is a member of the Giants’ practice squad and could be called upon if needed, but neither he nor Gallman have any fantasy value right now.

Wide Receivers

Sterling Shepard

Shepard is an outstanding receiver who averages just over seven targets and close to five catches per game for his career. The Giants have tinkered with having him play on the outside but he’s more comfortable and effective when lining up in the slot. Injuries and specifically, his history of suffering concussions are concerning.

Fantasy Evaluation: When healthy, Shepard needs to be in your starting lineup, but if you roster him, you have to accept the risk that he might miss time. He’s currently on the IR due to turf toe and is eligible to return to action once three games have passed. If someone in your league drops him and you have room on your bench or an IR spot, pick him up. He might even present a good buy-low opportunity depending on your risk tolerance.

Golden Tate

The Giants actually have another slot receiver who can take Shepard’s place while he’s on the IR! Yes, it seems kind of dumb that the Giants have two WRs in Tate and Shepard who, at their core, are slot receivers. However, Tate should see an uptick in production with Shepard sidelined. He breaks tackles and according to Pro Football Focus, he leads all receivers with 1003 yards after the catch over the past five seasons.

Fantasy Evaluation: He’s worth adding off the waiver wire if available with Shepard on the IR. He averaged just under nine targets and six catches per game between Week 6 and 10 with Shepard sidelined. He’ll have a short shelf life. His fantasy value takes a modest hit with Shepard in the lineup. Overall he’ll likely provide lower WR3/flex play type fantasy production. If he has a good Week 3, he might be a nice sell high option.

Darius Slayton

Slayton is the Giants’ primary deep threat. His 10 TDS since Week 5 of last season leads all WRs. He has good chemistry with Jones, tracks the ball well, and has excellent contested-catch ability.

Fantasy Evaluation: He’s a good trade target based on his potential production but right now you’d be paying top dollar in any transaction. It’s going to be difficult for him to keep up his extraordinary pace of catching TDs (one TD for every six catches) but as the Giants’ big-play threat and as one of Jones’ favorite receivers, he will continue to get plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.

C.J. Board and Damion Ratley round out the rest of the Giants’ receivers. Head coach Joe Judge has been talking them up this week and their roles are expected to gradually increase. Board has five catches and 9.8 yards per reception, and Ratley has yet to catch a pass so far this season. Neither has any fantasy value as of yet.

Tight End

Evan Engram

Garrett historically has heavily utilized TEs in his offenses. Of course, it didn’t hurt that he had a very good one in Jason Witten on his roster for many years. Engram is a TE that plays like a WR. He’s actually lined up in the slot and on the perimeter 66 times so far this season. Unfortunately, Engram has missed 14 out of a possible 50 games in his young career nursing hamstring, knee, and foot injuries.

Fantasy Evaluation: He’s a high risk, high reward player. When healthy he’s one of the best receivers at the TE position, averaging just over seven targets and 4.5 catches per game for his career. If he can stay healthy for a full season he can provide your fantasy team with 65 to 75 catches and upwards of six TDs. Like Shepard whether you roster him or trade for him depends on your risk tolerance.

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