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Ben Holmes evaluates starting pitchers to pick up or add off waivers in week four of the 2020 fantasy baseball season. These SP could be sleepers and breakouts worth rostering.
As week four approaches, the season is starting to take shape. Sample sizes for all statistics and analytics are getting larger, therefore becoming more indicative of future outcomes. Both pitchers and hitters are starting to show their true colors, making it easier to identify good matchups.
With that being said let’s delve into the waiver wire and grab some arms to help dominate week four and beyond. All the matchups are based upon the schedule as of Friday, August 7th. Of course, in the midst of a pandemic, no game seems to be guaranteed.
The starters are listed by waiver claim priority.
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Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
23% rostered
It would appear that the highly-touted Spencer Howard will make his debut on Sunday against the Braves. It’s a 1:05 pm start so hopefully, he is already rostered before the game. If he takes the mound and looks dominant, there will be a lot more competition to acquire his services.
In many deeper leagues, the 24-year-old has been stashed since week one in anticipation for his debut, which likely already would have happened if not for COVID-19 related postponements.
As mentioned in the previous waiver wire article:
“The 45th overall pick in 2017 had a 2.35 ERA, 11.15 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, and 0.59 HR/9 in 30.2IP in Double-A last season. Those were all career-worst numbers by the way. He pitched 35 innings at High-A and had better stats in every category.”
Make sure that he is rostered even if he gets blown up by a fierce Braves lineup. His potential to make an impact on a fantasy team is higher than any rookie pitcher this season.
Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins
2% rostered
How about those Marlins? There may be a movie written about this 2020 team of misfits one day, but for now they’re sitting at atop the NL East. There aren’t many fantasy-relevant players in their lineup but their rotation is certainly worth paying attention to.
On Wednesday, August 5th Elisier Hernandez gave up just two hits to the Orioles, striking out five, and walking one in 4.1IP. Granted Baltimore’s offense doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing pitchers. However, they are actually a not-terrible 18th in baseball at 4.01 runs per game. Oh, and look who Hernandez is slated to face next, the Toronto Blue Jays, who happen to be the worst offense in baseball to date. They average 3.10 RPG and their highest run total of the season (six) came in their very first game against the Rays. On Thursday night, they made Toukki Toussant look like Greg Maddux.
If all goes well for Hernandez this waiver wire claim won’t just be a one-week streamer. His Triple-A numbers were Christian Javier like, a 1.13 ERA and 12.94 K/9 in 48IP which is really exciting. The Venezuelan did get 15 starts in the Majors last season and even though his ERA (5.03) was too high, he still had a nice 16.7 K-BB%.
In the Tuesday night matchup Hernandez will have a longer leash and be more stretched out. A quality start could easily be in the books here if so his ownership rate will rise rapidly.
Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins
11% rostered
From the Week 2 Waiver Wire article:
“Pablo Lopez is slated to be the fourth starter in the Marlins rotation entering the season. However, all projections have him leading the team in ERA ad WHIP this season, as he did last year. There is also a little breakout appeal with Lopez this season. Entering this season Marlins pitching coach Mel Sottlemyre Jr. said that Lopez has added a cutter and enhanced his sinker and other breaking balls.”
The 24-year-old then proceeded to throw five scoreless innings against the Orioles while only allowing two hits. Needless to say, this supported the theory that Lopez is primed for a breakout season. He’ll go up against a struggling Mets team on Sunday and try and ride the momentum of the Cinderella Marlins.
Brandon Bielak, Houston Astros
9% rostered
Brandon Bielak is so good that in one start this season he already has two wins. Of course, that’s down to some good luck and two solid relief outings, but when the Astros call up one of their minor-league arms it’s definitely worth investing in the upside. This certainly isn’t a Christian Javier “everyone stop what you’re doing and run to the waiver wire” level of upside, but it’s worth taking a flier.
In 14 starts at Triple-A, last season the righty had a 4.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and had a 10.2BB%. However, Javier also struggled with walks all through the Minors, now in two big-league starts, he’s issued just two in 12.2IP. The Astros coaching staff has proven how much they can improve their pitchers and there is no reason to think they can’t do it with Bielak.
Regardless of his Minor League numbers, Bielak earned his chance to secure a spot in the Astros rotation. He impressed in two relief appearances and was deemed the next man up to replace the struggling Josh James who is now back in the bullpen. He only struck out one Diamondback in his first start but he also only limited them to two hits in five innings.
He now has a 0.87 ERA in 10.1 IP and should be able to keep those numbers nice and low as he faces the Giants on Tuesday. San Francisco has proven they aren’t as offensively inept as some initially thought, but Bielak should still provide a stellar outing for fantasy owners in week four and hopefully beyond.
Randy Dobnak, Minnesota Twins
25% rostered
Randy Dobnak is not on this list because he is a 6’1” 230lbs pitcher with goggles and a handlebar mustache… but it certainly helps. In all seriousness, no one saw this great start coming for the 25-yea-old. He only has 8Ks in 15 IP but in that span, he has only given up just one run and nine hits.
A .200 BABIP is obviously unsustainable but Dobnak does profile to have a BABIP below league average. He throws his sinker 44.1% of the time leading to a 68.2% GB rate, if he can maintain numbers close to that he should have continued success.
He faces the underperforming Brewers on Monday at Miller Park and then will face the Royals at home later in the week. Kansas City are averaging 4.14 RPG, and considering they have games where they scored 13 and 14 runs respectively, that’s not very good. Dobnak should fair quite well in the coming week.
Dobnak is fully stretched out and according to CBS, his manager Rocco Baldelli said his place in the rotation is secure, even with Rich Hill, Homer Bailey, and soon Jake Odorizzi all coming back.
Touki Toussaint, Atlanta Braves
5% rostered
A 6.80 ERA is going to scare a lot of fantasy owners away from the 2016 first-round pick. Don’t fall for it, that might be the biggest misrepresentation in the league at the moment. On July 27th, the Haitian gave up six ER in 2.2IP of relief, giving him a 20.25 ERA after his first appearance of the season. Since then Toussaint has been lights out.
In 4IP against the Mets, he struck out five and finished with a 1.50 WHIP. He then one-upped himself on Thursday against the Blue Jays when he struck out nine and gave up four hits in a quality start.
What sets Toussaint apart from most pitchers is how he uses his split-finger pitch. This season he’s thrown it 24.1% of the time for an opposing BA of .118. Last season he threw it 182 times (23.4%) for an opposition AVG of .121. Most pitchers start their split finger in the zone and have it drop out, whereas Touki keeps it over the plate which seems to really catch hitters off guard
Unfortunately, he will run up against the Yankees in his next start, but if he pitches as well as he did on Thursday, he should at least lower that 6.80 ERA. If he manages to recreate his last two stat lines against New York he will really jump onto the fantasy radar.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
3% rostered
With all the hype around Brady Singer, another Royals rookie has flown a little bit under the radar. 22-year-old lefty Kris Bubic has put together a solid first two starts of his Major-League career. Especially considering the highest level Bubic pitched before was High-A where he had an impressive 2.30 ERA in 101IP.
The 40th overall pick in 2018 gave up two ER in both his first start against the White Sox and his second against the Cubs where he went long enough to get a quality start. He left both those games with a 1.00 WHIP. That’s basically just as good as rookie Nate Pearson who’s 73% owned.
He’ll face the Cincinnati Reds in his first road start on Tuesday the 11th. They’ve only put up four RPG this season and are failing to live up all the pre-season sleeper talk. As a team, the Reds are hitting .173 against lefties in 98 ABs, which obviously bodes well for Bubic.
At 22 he’s more of a name for the future than the present for if he can continue this form who’s to say he won’t get some AL Rookie of the Year votes.
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels
40% rostered
It’s surprising that Griffin Canning qualified for this waiver wire column before his Friday start on Friday. His ownership percentage really should have been much higher. When a pitcher of his caliber and potential records a quality start against the Houston Astros, people should take notice.
However, it appears like fantasy owners were right to be cautious. It was relatively smooth sailing for Canning until the fourth inning where he lost all control Friday against the Rangers. He walked two batters in each of his prior two games, but on Friday the 24-year-old completely fell apart.
He walked six, twice with the bases loaded. He also threw the ball to centerfield on a pick-off attempt, bringing home a run. The six walks and the four hits equate to a 2.45 WHIP, which also happened to be his ERA for the night as only one of the four runs were earned. He made it through 3.2IP, throwing only 45 of his 88 pitches for strikes.
His velocity was down slightly in this outing too so keep an eye on any updates to see if he picked up an injury somewhere along the way. It would be devastating news for Canning after injuries cost him most of last season.
The Angels are trying to mount a charge to the postseason now they have Rendon back in the lineup. If so they better hope it was just a bad outing for Canning and nothing more. If he came out and dominated in week 3 Griff would be at the top of this list. However, the fact is that two of his three starts have been duds, but is still worth rostering in deep leagues barring an injury setback.
Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers
9% rostered
In a list full of young, high-upside prospects it’s good to have a veteran presence in the mix. Some fantasy owners don’t always want to take a chance on players with a high degree of unpredictability. Or maybe their waiver priority or FAAB just isn’t high enough and they have to settle for a less exciting name.
The former Minnesota Twin is a career 67-69 which sums him up pretty well. However, here’s the case for the 2009 first-round pick. Last season he had a 3.80 XFIP with a .330 BABIP and struck out exactly one batter per inning. So far, this season he has a 2.45 ERA in 11IP, and on Wednesday he struck out nine Oakland A’s in a quality start. After the two starts, he also has a career-low 3.59 SIERRA and 21.4% fly-ball rate.
He takes the mound at home against the Mariners on Monday where he should provide another good outing. Unfortunately, his second start of the week is at Coors Field against the Rockies. A daily league team would have to be pretty desperate to start him in that game but perhaps the 32-year-old can surprise some people.
Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies
24% rostered
How Senzatela is performing in his first three starts of the season defies logic. However, even with the utmost skepticism, it's worth adding Sanzatela in case his breakout is legitimate, even though there aren’t many signs indicating that it is.
Last season, the Venezuelan posted a 6.71 ERA, 5.49K/9, and 4.11 BB/9. It wasn’t just the Coors factor either, the 25-year old had an even worse 7.29 ERA on the road. Even with these numbers he somehow made 25 starts, so it wasn't a case of a small sample size. In fact, he hasn’t shown this form at any point in the three seasons prior to this one. However, it’s important to give credit where it’s due and in three starts this season the 25-year-old has been impressive.
After doing surprisingly well against the A’s and the Padres, “The Little Prince” went out on Friday and breezed through five innings of work against the Mariners. He did give up two runs in the sixth but still registered his second consecutive quality start.
The reason why it’s hard to fully buy-in is that the peripherals are very similar to last season. He is throwing the same four pitches, essentially the same amount with no real change in velocity. Sure, he likely won’t have the .333 BABIP he did in 2019, but regression will bring his statistics much closer to what they looked like last season. For example, opponents so far are hitting .100 off the slider but according to Baseball Savant, it’s actually dropping and breaking less than last season.
The results can’t be argued with but it’ll be stunning if he keeps this up deep into the season. Although, he will face either the Rangers or D-backs at Coors next week so perhaps he could continue his almost All-Star level charade a little longer.
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