Later-Round TEs with Upside and Safer TEs to Avoid

June 19, 2020

Michael Florio explains his fantasy football draft strategy of avoiding low-ceiling players by naming high-upside tight ends to target in the middle to late rounds of your drafts and 'safe' TEs to avoid.

This season I will be implementing a new fantasy football strategy. If you have been keeping up with this series, you know that by now! But for those who haven’t, I can give you a quick recap! My strategy is to build a safe base in the early rounds and then target pure upside players.

Those “safe” floor players that you draft in the middle or later rounds and then hold onto all year in case a player in your lineup gets hurt or to use them as a bye week replacement. But having to slide these players in for one of your starters is already making your team worse. Suddenly, your lineup’s upside is capped, and you need teams to not have a big week against you in order for you to win. At the same time, while you are using a draft pick on those players and then holding them all season. That is both a valuable draft pick that could have been used on a player with difference making upside. The bench spots you use to stash them could be used to take shots off the waiver wire. These “safe” players may win you a week, but not a championship.

But any experienced fantasy football player can tell you that having a strategy is just the first step. The next part is to identify the players that fit that strategy. That way, you know both who to target and who to avoid. Knowing what players, you want in the middle and late rounds before drafting also gives you flexibility in the early rounds. I have previously given you upside and safe QB, RB and WR, but now it is time for the final positional breakdown of this series, the TEs!

High-Upside TEs in Round 6 or Later

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Higbee is the TE6 going in the sixth round. So, you do have to pay for his upside, but I believe it is worth paying up to nab him. Higbee was nothing more than waiver-wire fodder for much of the 2019 season, but that all changed in the final five weeks. The Rams began running more 12 personnel (using two tight end sets) rather than 11 (which is one TE, three WR). They ran 12 on 35.7 percent of their plays in the final five weeks, and with that, Higbee exploded. He averaged 21.44 fantasy PPG in the final five weeks and the Rams selling Brandin Cooks makes me believe Higbee will continue to be heavily involved in this offense.

I wrote an entire breakdown of the Rams’ offense, but this table will help highlight just how good Higbee was down the stretch. I am buying into the breakout and think you should too.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Engram has the talent to be a Top 5 tight end and we all know that. He only played eight games last season but did finish as the TE7 in points per game. He also averaged 7.5 targets per game, which put him in a tie for second with Travis Kelce, only Zach Ertz (8.0) averaged more. So he has the talent and when he is healthy, he had the volume. Engram has been a TE1 since entering the league, averaging over 11 fantasy point per game in each of his three seasons. The only real concern with Engram is health. But, knowing what his ceiling is, I am fine taking him in sixth or seventh round.

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons

This is one tight end that simply has not been getting enough love this offseason. He is currently going as the TE11 in the eighth round of FFPC drafts, but he goes even later on other sites. He may not have ever lived up to the first-round hype with the Ravens, but don’t hold that against him with the Falcons.

First, he is a big-bodied, athletic tight end that can replace Austin Hooper in this offense. His 40-yard dash time (4.67) ranked in the 80^th percentile among tight ends. Plus, playing with Matt Ryan is only a good thing for tight ends. Ryan has had a tight end see over 50 targets in all but two of his NFL seasons. He’s had a tight end top 200 fantasy points four times. Last season, each of the top-five tight ends topped 200 fantasy points. Ryan has also had a tight end top 150 fantasy points seven times. Last year, only nine tight ends scored over 150 fantasy points.

Throughout his career, Ryan has averaged 6.2 passes per game to tight ends. But that number has often eclipsed eight per game, and last season was 7.27. Let’s not forget that Hooper was the TE1 before getting injured in Week 10. The fact that the Falcons may be trailing a lot only has to make you like Hurst more. In fact, I would take Hurst over Hooper this season.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Here is the first of two young tight ends that I think can make the jump into fantasy stardom. Gesicki flopped for the first half of last season, but then came on really strong in the second half, basically doubling his numbers across the board and finishing as the TE8 in Weeks 9-17. But his big breakout did come after Preston Williams tore his ACL. Working against him is also the fact that new OC Chan Gailey has never really had any success with a tight end. But it is fair to say that Gesicki is the best TE talent he will have ever worked with. He can be considered as a high-end TE2 just outside the top 12 tight ends.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

The Iowa alum is a great athlete who looks to build off his success from last season, but is on an offense that suddenly has many other mouths to feed. Fant, like any rookie TE, struggled with consistency his rookie season but he certainly flashed his upside. The only concern is that he has to compete for targets with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, amongst others. Still, he is going off the board as the TE14, in the ninth round of FFPC drafts. At that price, it is easily worth taking a shot on his upside.

Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers

Every year fantasy players chase the second wide receiver on the Packers. This season it is Allen Lazard getting the hype. But Sternberger is as good an option as any on the Packers. Sternberger hardly saw the field as a rookie, but do not judge him based on that. In his junior season at Texas A&M, he racked up 48 catches for 832 yards and 10 scores. He is a strong athlete who outside of football played basketball and ran track. You gotta love the basketball background for a tight end. I mean, name a good tight end who didn’t play basketball??? All kidding aside, Sternberger is a good athlete and in a spot where a ton of volume is up for grabs behind Davante Adams. The best part is it only costs a 15th-round pick as the TE24 to draft him.

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

are two veteran tight ends that I think could surprise. Doyle gets an instant bump with Philip Rivers as his QB. Rivers loves throwing to TEs. Since 2009, he has averaged 7.6 passes per game to tight ends, including multiple seasons with 9+ throws per game to the position. Doyle is not a sexy name by any stretch, but he could see the volume alone to finish as a TE1 this season. Yet all he costs is an 11th round pick as the TE18 off the board.

Greg Olsen, Seattle Seahawks

Olsen goes even later as the TE25 in the 15th round of FFPC drafts. He is definitely up there in age and his health is a concern, but we do know Russell Wilson also incorporates the tight ends, averaging 6.3 passes per game to them in his career. We saw last year that Will Dissly was a red zone favorite of Wilson’s and it is very possible Olsen replaces him in that role. Dealing with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett he may not see consistent volume each week, but I think he can still perform as a borderline TE1 if he remains healthy.

Deeper Tight Ends with Upside: Irv Smith Jr, Chris Herndon, Dawson Knox

‘Safe’ Tight Ends to Avoid

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints

Cook finished last season with 43 catches for 705 yards and nine touchdowns. One of those numbers should really jump out at you. His nine touchdowns were the second-most among all tight ends. Cook scored 32 percent of his fantasy points last season off of touchdowns, the most among any TE that played regularly throughout the season. Cook finished as a top-10 tight end in six weeks, meaning he was outside the top 10 in the other eight games he played. He also now has to deal with Emmanuel Sanders coming in and stealing work.

At best, I think Cook competes with Sanders to be the third target, behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. If you add in some TD regression, you can see why it would be difficult for Cook to duplicate last season and finish as a top-10 tight end.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

You should not go chasing waterfalls or career seasons propped by high touchdown numbers. That is exactly what everyone is still chasing with Ebron. In 2018, Ebron scored 14 total touchdowns for the Colts. In his other five NFL seasons combined he scored 15. Ebron has never posted more than 750 yards in any season. Outside of 2018, he’s never scored 150 fantasy points

Ebron is in a favorable situation now with the Steelers, but he still has JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, Chase Claypool and Vance McDonald to compete for targets. I truly fear a TE committee here with McDonald being used more between the 20s and Ebron being used more in the red zone. Similar to what we saw between Doyle and Ebron with the Colts.

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys & Ian Thomas, Carolina Panthers

These two were popular breakout picks at times this offseason. However, I just can’t get too excited for them. Both are in offenses with plenty of other weapons around them. At best, maybe they will be the fourth target? And for Thomas, I do not trust Teddy Bridgewater to make him a consistent option every week, not while also having to prop up D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey each week. These two are players that will have a big week here and there, but good luck guessing when those will occur. The difficulty in predicting them has me leaving them for others to draft while I target the upside names about.

If you have any questions on this strategy, or anything fantasy sports-related, hit me up on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio

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