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Scott Cullen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for March 10th, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Tuesday night offers up a nine-game NBA schedule, plenty of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
As we pass the three quarter point of the NBA season, a lot of per-game statistical output is settled into a certain range for star players but it’s fascinating to see players that have taken off in the past month or so, like Houston’s Russell Westbrook and Boston’s Jayson Tatum, and how their recent performance clearly exceeds their season averages. That adds another layer to the decision-making process.
Here are some angles to consider before making your Tuesday night prop picks.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
James Harden LESS THAN 33.5 POINTS – Even though the Rockets are facing a Minnesota team that is abysmal defensively, Harden isn’t getting as many looks lately, while Russell Westbrook takes charge of the Houston offense. This doesn’t mean that Harden isn’t scoring at all but he’s been held to 33 or fewer points in five of the past six games.
Bradley Beal MORE THAN 32.5 POINTS – This a big number to cover, considering that Beal is averaging 30.5 points per game at home but he is facing the Knicks and, over the past 21 games, he’s averaging 35.7 points pe game. That scoring surge is enough reason to like Beal for the over.
Russell Westbrook MORE THAN 30.5 POINTS – As noted above, the Rockets offense is giving more touches to Westbrook and he has put up 32.5 points per game in the past 21 games. A home game against a Timberwolves team that is defensively inept should be enough reason to like Westbrook to score at least 31.
Luka Doncic LESS THAN 29.5 POINTS – Not only is Doncic dealing with a wrist injury right now but he has also averaged 27.2 points per game in the past nine games since returning from injury. San Antonio doesn’t have much of a defensive track record this season, allowing 115.0 points per game, so this is more about Doncic than the defense offered up by the Spurs.
Jayson Tatum MORE THAN 24.5 POINTS – Tatum is averaging 23.3 points per game on the road this season and is going up against an Indiana Pacers team that is clearly above average defensively. However, he’s one of the hottest scorers in the game, putting up 29.1 points per game in his past 15, so ride with Tatum while he has the hot hand.
RAPID FIRE
Jonas Valanciunas +1.5 rebounds vs. Andre Drummond – While Drummond has been a beast on the boards, he’s not as dominant since arriving in Cleveland, putting up 10.7 rebounds per game. That’s close enough to like Valanciunas as the underdog in this matchup.
Davis Bertans +0.5 three-pointers vs. Tim Hardaway Jr. – A couple of three-point bombers who are both playing two of the teams with the worst three-point defense, New York and San Antonio, respectively. Somehow, Bertans is the underdog despite knocking down neary four three-pointers per home game while Hardaway has made fewer than three three-pointers per game. So, take Bertans and enjoy!
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Damian Lillard LESS THAN 30.5 POINTS – Damian Lillard is averaging 32.2 points per game at home and is facing a Phoenix Suns team with below-average defensive numbers. Since coming back from injury, though, Lillard is averaging 19.3 points per game in three games. That makes caution the better part of valor.
Devin Booker MORE THAN 28.5 POINTS – On the road this season, Booker is averaging 27.6 points per game, so counting on 29 or more is a bit of a big ask. At the same time, the Trail Blazers are giving up more than 115 points per game, which is enough to nudge Booker towards the over.
Kawhi Leonard LESS THAN 26.5 POINTS – Kawhi is averaging 26.3 points per game on the road and goes up against a Golden State team that isn’t good but should be better now that Steph Curry is back in the lineup. Kawhi has scored 26 or fewer points in five of the past seven games.
LeBron James MORE THAN 25.5 POINTS – He’s dealing with a groin injury and is averaging 25.6 points per game at home this season and LeBron and the Lakers are at home against a Brooklyn team that has below average defensive numbers.
Steph Curry MORE THAN 22.5 POINTS – In his first game back from injury, Curry dropped 23 points on the Raptors and the Lakers aren’t as strong defensively as Toronto, so Steph can score more and it doesn’t hurt that he is getting further away from his injury.
RAPID FIRE
Hassan Whiteside -3.5 rebounds vs. DeAndre Jordan – Whiteside is incredible on the boards, grabbing 15.7 per game at home this season. Jordan is merely very good, with 10.8 rebounds per game on the road. That is still a big enough margin to prefer Whiteside in this head-to-head matchup.
