RADIO
Wildcard Weekend is here for the National Football League, with four compelling matchups and plenty of possibilities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The first game on Saturday sees the Buffalo Bills in Houston to take on the Texans. Buffalo has a stifling defense but the challenge will be generating enough offense to keep up with a Texans team that is not especially consistent but has high-end talent that can make the difference.
After a disappointing Week 17 loss to Miami, the New England Patriots are involved in a wildcard game that they probably didn’t expect a few weeks ago. The Patriots may be vulnerable, particularly if Titans running back Derrick Henry can control the game on the ground but going against the Patriots in the playoffs has not been an easy road.
On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints have won six of their past seven games, with their only loss coming in a 48-46 classic against San Francisco. Can the Minnesota Vikings stop a Saints team that looks like a powerhouse, at least by wildcard standards?
Finally, the Seattle Seahawks are in Philadelphia to take on the Eagles and both teams are staggering into the postseason with lineups decimated by injuries. The Eagles have scrambled to put together a receiving corps for quarterback Carson Wentz while the Seahawks lured Marshawn Lynch back into action due to an urgent need at running back.
Here are some angles to keep in mind when making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight for the first weekend of the NFL playoffs.
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BUFFALO-HOUSTON
MORE OR LESS
Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 250.5 PASSING YARDS – The Texans quarterback has been up and down in terms of yardage, going over 250 yards eight times and under eight times on the way to averaging 256.5 passing yards per contest. However, going against Buffalo, one of four teams to allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and 6.2 yards per pass attempt, would seem to tilt this towards lower production for Watson.
Josh Allen LESS THAN 220.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Bills quarterback was held under 220 passing yards in four of his last five starts, not including Week 17 when he threw five passes, he does get the benefit of facing a Texans Defense that has struggled against the pass, allowing 267.3 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt. However, the Houston defense should get a shot in the arm by the return of defensive end J.J. Watt, whose ability to rush the passer should keep Allen off balance.
Cole Beasley MORE THAN 4.5 RECEPTIONS – The veteran slot receiver has been targeted 41 times in the past five games, finishing with more than four catches in three of those games. With the Bills underdogs in this game, they may very well need to throw the ball more and that should give Beasley enough opportunities to hit the over.
RAPID FIRE
John Brown +16.5 receiving yards vs. DeAndre Hopkins – As much as Hopkins is a stud, his production was down a bit this season, averaging 77.7 receiving yards per game, and faces a strong Bills secondary, whereas Brown averaged 70.7 receiving yards per game and goes up against a more vulnerable Texans secondary.
Devin Singletary +2.5 rushing yards vs. Carlos Hyde – Hyde was surprisingly consistent early in the season but faded late, while the rookie Singletary took some time to become the featured back in Buffalo but finished strong, averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game in the last eight games of the regular season. The Texans are also giving up 4.8 yards per carry compared to 4.3 per game for the Bills, which is another reason to like Singletary as the underdog.
TENNESSEE-NEW ENGLAND
MORE OR LESS
Tom Brady MORE THAN 259.5 PASSING YARDS – The Patriots may be sleeping giants but one of the very real concerns about this team is that they don’t have enough weapons in the passing game. Brady has been held under 260 passing yards in five of the past seven games. Thing is, though, that Brady has passed for at least 260 yards in 12 straight playoff games. When the games matter, the Patriots will put the ball in Brady’s hands and let him operate.
Ryan Tannehill LESS THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS – Since taking over as the Titans starting quarterback in Week 7, Tannehill has averaged 259.8 passing yards per game but he’s going up against a Patriots Defense that has been stingy against the pass, allowing 180.4 passing yards per game and 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
A.J. Brown LESS THAN 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Tennessee’s star rookie receiver has been an impact player down the stretch, going for more than 100 yards in four of the last six games of the regular season. Can he get loose against Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore, the favorite to be the Defensive Player of the Year? That’s a little more challenging.
RAPID FIRE
Derrick Henry -28.5 rushing yards vs. Sony Michel – A furious finish to the season, which included 149.3 rushing yards per game in his last six games, left Henry with a league-leading 1,540 rushing yards this season, averaging 102.7 yards per game and the Titans will likely want to ride Henry against the New England defense. Michel isn’t the most consistent threat and averaged 57 rushing yards per game. That’s not enough reason to like him even with the big spread.
Julian Edelman -1.5 receptions vs. James White – Edelman has been banged up this season and was targeted 18 times in the final three games after an eight-game stretch in which he was targeted in double digits eight times. If Brady is going to be his typically productive playoff self, he likely needs Edelman to be a central part of the passing game.
MINNESOTA-NEW ORLEANS
MORE OR LESS
Drew Brees LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS – Since returning from injury, Brees is averaging 285.7 passing yards per game, throwing for more than 305 yards in four of nine games, but Minnesota’s pass defense is better than average so we’ll try the under.
Kirk Cousins LESS THAN 261.5 PASSING YARDS – Perhaps there should be consideration that if the Vikings are trailing they will be forced to throw a lot, and that could prop up Cousins’ passing yardage, but he averaged 240.5 passing yards per game this season and the Saints Defense is allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which is better than average.
Alvin Kamara MORE THAN 59.5 RUSHING YARDS – The question for Kamara is whether he gets enough carries. In the last seven games of the season, he averaged 57.1 rushing yards per game, while gaining 4.9 yards per carry. Minnesota’s run defense is around the middle of the pack and if the Saints are winning, that should be enough opportunity for Kamara to hit the over.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -36.5 receiving yards vs. Stefon Diggs – During the regular season, Thomas held a 32.5-yard edge on Diggs (107.8 – 75.3) when it came to average receiving yards per game and he’s certainly the more trustworthy option but that is a monster spread considering that Diggs is a productive No. 1 receiver for a team that may need to throw the ball a bunch to keep pace.
SEATTLE-PHILADELPHIA
MORE OR LESS
Carson Wentz MORE THAN 267.5 PASSING YARDS – Despite having his receiving corps depleted by injuries, the Eagles quarterback averages 301.8 passing yards per game in the last five, throwing for more than 267 yards in four of the five games. Seattle’s pass defense is solid enough, allowing 6.8 yards per attempt, but they also allow 263.9 passing yards per game, the most among NFC playoff teams.
Russell Wilson LESS THAN 251.5 PASSING YARDS – Wilson has averaged 256.9 passing yards per game this season but that dropped in the second half when he was held under 250 passing yards in six of the last seven games.
Miles Sanders MORE THAN 46.5 RUSHING YARDS – Sanders emerged as a reliable threat down the stretch, going for at least 47 rushing yards in five of the last six games and Seattle is giving up 4.9 yards per carry, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
RAPID FIRE
Tyler Lockett +0.5 receptions vs. Zach Ertz – Eagles tight end Ertz has been great this season but is also dealing with broken ribs that may reduce his effectiveness somewhat and the Eagles have Dallas Goedert available to handle a bigger role at tight end if Ertz isn’t 100%. Lockett battled injuries in his own right but was good for 19 receptions in the last four games, good enough to be a lively underdog in this matchup.
D.K. Metcalf -23.5 receiving yards vs. Miles Sanders – While Sanders is an effective receiver out of the backfield, Metcalf really emerged as a consistent threat for the Seahawks. Given the choice between the rookies, side with the receiver when it comes to receiving yards.
