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Joe Williams' MLB betting picks for 7/20/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Saturday, July 20th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
- Last Week's Picks: 3-1 (75.0%) +155
- Year-to-Date: 17-15 (53.1%) +112
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like addition content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.
Here are my picks for Saturday, July 20th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs (-130)
O/U: OFF
The Padres and Cubs square off in a battle of southpaws, as LHP Joey Lucchesi and LHP Jose Quintana face each other at Wrigley Field. San Diego hasn't had a lot of luck against lefties, going 17-38 in the past 55 vs. LHP, and 15-41 in the past 56 on the road against lefties. In addition, they're 0-4 in the past four against teams with a winning record, and 0-4 in the past four against a starter with a WHIP over 1.30. They're also 1-5 in Lucchesi's past six outings in Game 2 of a series, too.
On the flip side, the Cubbies have handled their business against lefties, going 32-15 in the past 47 at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field vs. LHP. In addition, they have cashed in 22 of Quintana's past 32 starts at home, and 11 of his past 15 at Wrigley against teams with a losing overall record. Despite the impressive trends, you won't have to eat a ton of chalk in this one.
My Pick: Cubs (-130)
Oakland Athletics (+120) @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 10
The Athletics have been on fire lately, while the Twins have really struggled, even with All-Star RHP Jose Berrios on the bump.
Oakland has won five consecutive outings by LHP Brett Anderson, and they're 6-1 over his past seven starts and 4-0 in the past four road outings against a team with a winning overall mark. The A's are surging, having won 43 of their past 54 against American League Central opponents while going 19-7 in the past 26 against right-handed starting pitchers. They're also 20-7 in the past 27 on the road, and 7-2 in the past nine on the road vs. RHP.
For the Twins, their double-digit lead in the American League Central has been whittled down to just three games heading into play on Saturday. Minnesota has won just once in the past six starts by Berrios, while going 3-9 in his past 12 appearances against AL West opponents. While they're 25-8 in his past 33 home outings, the Twins have won just once in the past five at Target Field, and they're 0-5 in Game 3 of a series, too. Oakland has won 35 of the past 51 meetings in this series, and four of the past five meetings in the Twin Cities.
My Pick: Athletics (+120)
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-155)
O/U: 10
You'll have to munch on quite a bit of chalk, but it's worth it backing Braves All-Star RHP Mike Soroka and the home side.
The Braves are an impressive 6-0 in Soroka's past six home outings, while going 17-4 across his past 21 starts overall. Atlanta is also a perfect 9-0 over his past nine outings inside the NL East, while going 7-0 in his past seven while working on five days of rest. They're also 15-3 in Soroka's past 18 starts on a grass surface. The Braves have won 15 of their past 20 games at home, while going 22-9 in the past 31 vs. RHP, and 9-4 in the past 13 at home against teams with a winning overall record.
On the flip side, the Nationals have won 18 of the past 23 games inside the NL East, while going 23-8 in the past 31 against righties. They're also 12-5 in the past 17 on the road. And while the Nats are 7-2 in the past nine starts overall by RHP Anibal Sanchez, they're 2-5 in his past seven against winning teams, including 1-4 in the past five road outings against a winning side.
If you're looking for a parlay opportunity, especially while eating moderate chalk, the 'under' is the play in this one. The under is 7-1 in Washington's past eight on the road, and 13-3 in the past 16 overall. The under is 12-2 in Washington's past 14 vs. RHP. For the Braves, while the over is 4-0 in Soroka's past four outings, the under is 5-1 in his past six against winning teams, and 14-6-2 in the past 22 overall.
My Pick: Braves (-155) and UNDER 10
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
O/U: 9
The Brewers get LHP Gio Gonzalez (arm) back from a long-term absence due to a dead arm. As such, he isn't expected to go very deep into the game. He'll run into an Arizona offense which has been a buzzsaw lately, scoring nine or more runs in three of the past four outings.
Milwaukee has won just three of the past 12 games on the road, and they're 3-10 in the past 13 games against National League West foes. In addition, they have won just two of their past 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers, while going 1-6 in the past seven road outings vs. RHP.
For Arizona, they have won seven of the past 10 games overall, and they're 5-1 in the past six games at home. They're also 8-1 in RHP Zack Greinke's past nine starts against winning teams, while winning six of his past eight outings overall. They're also an impressive 37-17 in the past 54 starts at home overall, and 5-1 in his past six against NL Central opponents.
My Pick: Diamondbacks (-135)
