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New Philadelphia Phillies outfielder (OF) Jay Bruce finds himself in a favorable environment to resurrect his fantasy baseball value. Nicklaus Gaut digs into Bruce's power profile and Statcast numbers to decide if owners should add or buy-low for the rest of 2019.
It appears we've been here before. Is it already time to resurrect Jay Bruce as a fantasy option once again?
Bruce has seemingly been playing in the majors for two decades but is actually only 32 years old, playing in his 12th season. Annually underappreciated for his steady but unflashy production, Bruce has lost a lot of fantasy luster after a hot start and now starts over again with a new team.
Is Bruce destined to be forgotten again or should we pay attention now that he finds himself in the midst of a potent Phillies lineup?
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Don't Let Them Bury Me, I'm Not Dead Yet
Bruce was buried for the first time after the 2014 season, when he hit only 18 home runs with a career-low wOBA of .288 - despite three straight seasons of 30+ HR with wOBAs north of .345. Bruce then bounced back in 2015 with a wOBA of .309, along with 26 HR, and stellar years in 2016-17 followed, with Bruce posting HR totals of 33 and 36, along with respective wOBAs of .340 and .350.
Then 2018 came and the Bruce of the previous years didn't come with it, as his numbers fell off a cliff and he was once again left for dead. In his 94 games with the Mets, Bruce had career-lows in HR, RBI, and Runs with underlying statistics that weren't any better, as he only posted a lower ISO, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+ in the aforementioned 2014. The only seemingly bright-spots were a career-low K-rate and a career-high walk-rate. Bruce was then shipped along with Anthony Swarzak to the Mariners in the offseason, in a deal for Robinson Cano and just like that, Jay Bruce was buried again.
However, like Jason Voorhees, Jay(son) Bruce cannot just be buried and forgotten. Instead of staying put in the graveyard of fantasy irrelevance, Bruce instead thrust a fist up through the ground and said, "Not today!" In 48 games with Seattle, Bruce hit 14 HR with a .351 wOBA, a .349 ISO, and a 127 wRC+. Even with these successes, there still wasn't a lot of belief in the sustainability of his output, as some underlying metrics gave observers pause. His walk-rate was back down from last year's high watermark, and his K-rate had spiked to a career-worst 27.7%. A .227 average had only been worse in the bad years of '14 and '18, and his OBP sat at only .298 - 17 points lower than the disaster of the previous season. Bruce had seemingly risen from the dead, but the fantasy world remained a collective Doubting Thomas, confident that he would drop back dead at any moment. Jerry DiPoto and Mariners concurred, trading Bruce to the Phillies last week for infield prospect Jake Scheiner.
Even with some seemingly red flags with his 2019 performance, the Phillies traded for Bruce as they were getting desperate for depth, power, and left-handed bats - and desperation is a stinky cologne. Before answering whether or not Bruce will smell like perfume for his new team, where exactly does he find himself?
The Current Situation
Bruce arrives back in the NL East, where he had spent most of the previous two seasons. The Phillies have 100 games left, 50 of which are at home in the virtual bandbox that is Citizen Bank Park. This is bad for the Phillies pitching staff but fantastic for Bruce, as Citizens Bank is one of the best stadiums in baseball for left-handed power, with park-factors landing it consistently in the top-five. But don't neglect the road stadiums, as Bruce will have a combined 12 games at Miami, Boston, and San Francisco - the three worst stadiums for lefties.
Putting stadiums aside, a lot of Bruce's value will hinge on how much he'll actually play. That question became a lot clearer after starting center-fielder Andrew McCutcheon was lost for the season to an ACL injury last Monday. Overnight, Bruce went from probably occasionally platooning with Scott Kingery in left, to likely having the job all to himself, with Kingery taking over center. With playing time now seemingly locked in, can we trust Bruce to continue the success he had with Seattle or is regression waiting to smack him back into the grave?
Old Dog, New Tricks
The bounce-back in 2019 after a lackluster '18 may feel familiar to Bruce's rebound after the dregs of 2014, but digging deeper reveals some key differences - namely a possible change in approach. Looking at his Statcast metrics from 2019, one number jumps off the page - a 17.1% Barrel rate - which is not only in the top-4% of the majors, it also almost doubles Bruce's average barrel-rate since Statcast data became available in 2015. And it's not just more barrels that he's hitting,
Bruce is also hitting the ball harder - posting a 43.5% Hard Hit % that's nine points higher than 2018 and five points higher than his career average. While his average exit-velocity is still around his career average of 90 mph, Bruce has made significant changes to his launch angle in 2019, hitting at a career-high angle of 24.7 degrees. This is 3.5 degrees higher than last year and 6.5 degrees higher than in 2017.
His Statcast numbers seem to tell of a change in approach; but it's also about when he's swinging and how much swinging, as well as where the ball is going - and there is a lot of evidence to back up that he is attacking pitchers in a different way than previously in his career.
- First-pitching swinging - Bruce's has a 41.2 F-strike%, nine points higher than his career average.
- Pitch selections - A career-high 53.3% Swing% is backed up by increased swings at both balls inside and outside the zone, posting respective career-high marks of 80.7% and 34.3%.
- Using all fields - While Bruce's Pull% has stayed mostly static at 43%, the big change is what seems to be a concerted effort to go the other way, as he's posted a career-high 28.4 Oppo% - a stark difference from last year's career-low of 18.4%
Put everything together, and it appears that Bruce is swinging earlier, more often, and at a higher angle - all while trying to go to the opposite field more. This could explain the spike in K-rate and the drop-off in walks, but it also might explain why he has career highs in ISO and wRC+ in 2019. If this is a 'new' Jay Bruce with a new 17.1 Barrel%, then the past success in Seattle is easy to project into the rest of this year with Philly, given he's on a better team and in a more friendly stadium.
His new approach won't do your fantasy team any favors in the average and OBP departments, but if you're struggling for HR, RBI, and Runs - then grab Bruce before someone else realizes that his boring old numbers just keep going and going.
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