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Week 17 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

Ben Rolfe analyzes the first 16 weeks of NFL player data, measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions.

Week 17 is here and it comes with mixed feelings. On one hand this is one of the most thrilling weeks on calendar. All 32 teams are playing in the space of 12 hours and the playoff scenarios could change hundreds or thousands of times on Sunday. However, this is also the end of regular football, pretty much the end of fantasy football, unless you play DFS. Week 17 always brings a time for reflection for fantasy owners, what were my good decisions? Why did I draft that player? How did I get lucky enough to pick him up off the waiver. Hopefully the article below will give you some insight into how players have performed as a whole this season. Starting next week I will be reviewing the year and looking what lessons we can learn. This week is about helping those people with finals this week.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 15 401.7 26.78 7.03 19.75 33.81 0.26 128.79
2 Matt Ryan 15 331.6 22.11 7.75 14.36 29.85 0.35 85.21
3 Ben Roethlisberger 15 323.2 21.55 7.44 14.11 28.98 0.35 83.97
4 Russell Wilson 15 293.6 19.58 5.99 13.59 25.56 0.31 83.59
5 Andrew Luck 15 301.4 20.09 6.73 13.36 26.83 0.33 80.08
6 Philip Rivers 15 270 18 5.42 12.58 23.42 0.3 77.75
7 Cam Newton 14 278.6 19.9 7.01 12.89 26.91 0.35 76.43
8 Aaron Rodgers 15 311.5 20.77 7.77 13 28.54 0.37 76.32
9 Deshaun Watson 15 315.7 21.05 8.98 12.07 30.03 0.43 70.38
10 Baker Mayfield 13 221.1 17 5.46 11.55 22.46 0.32 69.99
11 Kirk Cousins 15 280.2 18.68 7.2 11.48 25.89 0.39 67.13
12 Carson Wentz 11 202.3 18.39 7.02 11.37 25.41 0.38 66.56
13 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
14 Tom Brady 15 257.7 17.18 6.61 10.57 23.79 0.38 61.85
15 Dak Prescott 15 262.4 17.49 7.14 10.35 24.64 0.41 60.32
16 Eli Manning 15 223.7 14.91 4.92 9.99 19.84 0.33 60.11
17 Joe Flacco 9 139.2 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
18 Drew Brees 15 303.9 20.26 10.64 9.62 30.89 0.52 58.85
19 CJ Beathard 5 81 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
20 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.8 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
22 Andy Dalton 11 174.5 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
23 Case Keenum 15 204.4 13.63 4.64 8.99 18.27 0.34 53.66
24 Jared Goff 15 288.4 19.22 10.88 8.35 30.1 0.57 53.2
25 Jameis Winston 10 171.9 17.19 8.4 8.78 25.59 0.49 52.34
26 Mitchell Trubisky 13 252.9 19.45 11.65 7.81 31.1 0.6 51.95
27 Nick Mullens 7 104.4 14.91 6.3 8.61 21.22 0.42 50.21
28 Josh Johnson 3 43.6 14.52 6 8.52 20.52 0.41 49.65
29 Derek Carr 15 225.3 15.02 7.49 7.53 22.5 0.5 45.14
30 Matthew Stafford 15 201.7 13.45 6.41 7.04 19.86 0.48 41.65

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 16 weeks from largest to smallest. This week will be about navigating the start and sit decisions and finding not just the best players but also the players most likely to play 60 minutes. You ca get away if a player only plays 45 minutes but you need him to absolutely torch the opposition in those 45 minutes. Anything less and you might be in trouble.

There are a lot of names in the top-10 who I expect to play a reasonable amount on Sunday. Cam Newton is obviously injured but all of the other nine could conceivable be on the field the whole time. I might look to avoid names like Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson who have tough matchups, but otherwise most of them are good to go. Lower down, Dak Prescott and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks with everything already locked up. However, Brees is going for the MVP and is facing the defense of a team which seems to be giving up somewhat.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Keith Ford 2 13 6.5 0.28 6.22 6.78 0.04 155.88
2 Melvin Gordon 11 261.9 23.81 6.3 17.51 30.1 0.26 113.86
3 Todd Gurley 14 369.1 26.36 8.11 18.26 34.47 0.31 112.11
4 Saquon Barkley 15 360.6 24.04 7.88 16.16 31.92 0.33 97.36
5 Christian McCaffrey 15 376.5 25.1 9.35 15.75 34.45 0.37 92.47
6 Ezekiel Elliott 15 335.2 22.35 8.12 14.22 30.47 0.36 83.83
7 Alvin Kamara 15 348.2 23.21 10.73 12.48 33.95 0.46 73.42
8 James Conner 12 267.6 22.3 10.72 11.58 33.02 0.48 68.68
9 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
10 Joe Mixon 13 233.7 17.98 7.33 10.65 25.31 0.41 62.08
11 James White 15 261.7 17.45 8.73 8.71 26.18 0.5 52.29
12 David Johnson 15 238.9 15.93 7.35 8.58 23.27 0.46 50.45
13 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
14 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
16 Phillip Lindsay 15 222.8 14.85 7.01 7.84 21.87 0.47 46.31
17 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
18 Dalvin Cook 10 146 14.6 7.73 6.87 22.33 0.53 42.18
19 Chris Carson 13 185.5 14.27 7.35 6.92 21.62 0.52 41.98
20 Leonard Fournette 8 120.4 15.05 9.24 5.81 24.29 0.61 39.56
21 Tarik Cohen 15 228.4 15.23 9.71 5.52 24.94 0.64 39.11
22 Lamar Miller 13 163 12.54 6.4 6.13 18.94 0.51 37.08
23 Aaron Jones 12 173.5 14.46 9.32 5.14 23.78 0.64 36.89
24 Marlon Mack 11 158.3 14.39 10 4.39 24.39 0.7 35.09
25 Kenyan Drake 15 197.7 13.18 8.02 5.16 21.2 0.61 34.84
26 Adrian Peterson 15 194 12.93 7.69 5.24 20.63 0.59 34.67
27 Theo Riddick 13 114.1 8.78 2.98 5.8 11.75 0.34 34.66
28 Mark Ingram 11 138.2 12.56 7.23 5.34 19.79 0.58 34.4
29 Austin Ekeler 13 161 12.38 7.01 5.37 19.4 0.57 34.26
30 Darren Sproles 5 55.4 11.08 5.33 5.75 16.41 0.48 34.1
31 TJ Yeldon 14 177.1 12.65 7.63 5.02 20.28 0.6 33.63
32 Jalen Richard 15 156.8 10.45 4.86 5.6 15.31 0.46 32.96
33 Jordan Howard 15 157.6 10.51 4.93 5.57 15.44 0.47 32.88
34 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
35 Tevin Coleman 15 181.2 12.08 7.5 4.58 19.58 0.62 31.53
36 Matt Breida 14 164.5 11.75 7.84 3.91 19.59 0.67 29.36
37 Elijah McGuire 7 80.7 11.53 7.71 3.82 19.23 0.67 28.78
38 Sony Michel 12 136.1 11.34 7.54 3.8 18.88 0.66 28.41
39 Nick Chubb 15 192.5 12.83 10.66 2.17 23.5 0.83 28.28
40 Nyheim Hines 15 156 10.4 6.24 4.16 16.64 0.6 27.73
41 Kenneth Dixon 5 43.5 8.7 4.03 4.67 12.73 0.46 27.47
42 Dion Lewis 15 157.4 10.49 6.64 3.86 17.13 0.63 27.08
43 Derrick Henry 15 191.2 12.75 12.07 0.68 24.81 0.95 26.21
44 Peyton Barber 15 146.5 9.77 5.84 3.93 15.6 0.6 26.11
45 Isaiah Crowell 13 142.7 10.98 8.46 2.52 19.44 0.77 25.22
46 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
47 Ito Smith 13 97.7 7.52 3.52 3.99 11.04 0.47 23.55
48 Jaylen Samuels 8 78.3 9.79 7.4 2.39 17.19 0.76 22.73
49 Jeff Wilson 5 47.5 9.5 7.07 2.43 16.57 0.74 22.27
50 Javorius Allen 11 95.7 8.7 6.03 2.67 14.73 0.69 21.26

This week we are navigating a lot at the running back position. Not only do we have the usual injuries but now we have the added issue of teams maybe wanting to keep guys fresh heading into the playoffs. Take the Steelers for example, James Conner seems healthy and has had three weeks off, but how much use he will get could depend on the situation. The Steelers may decide if things start looking good for them that they need another week of recovery behind him for the playoffs. It is a delicate line to thread.

There are a lot of injuries in this list but those players names being here still tells you something. If you see a name like Aaron Jones then you know the opportunity is there for a Green Bay running back to have a solid week contributing to your fantasy team. The person who stands in may not be as good but he has an opportunity and that is what matters.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Davante Adams 15 327.6 21.84 5.2 16.64 27.04 0.24 113.57
2 Julian Edelman 11 188.4 17.13 3.93 13.19 21.06 0.23 91.72
3 DeAndre Hopkins 15 315.8 21.05 7.58 13.47 28.63 0.36 79.52
4 Antonio Brown 15 323.7 21.58 8.67 12.91 30.25 0.4 75.27
5 Julio Jones 15 304 20.27 7.66 12.6 27.93 0.38 73.87
6 Adam Thielen 15 301.6 20.11 8.13 11.98 28.23 0.4 69.86
7 Odell Beckham Jr 12 223.1 18.59 6.86 11.73 25.45 0.37 69
8 Robert Woods 15 263.1 17.54 6.58 10.96 24.12 0.38 64.26
9 Keenan Allen 14 249.7 17.84 7.03 10.81 24.86 0.39 63.11
10 Michael Thomas 15 313.6 20.91 10.78 10.12 31.69 0.52 61.44
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15 282.2 18.81 9.15 9.66 27.97 0.49 57.48
12 TY Hilton 13 230.9 17.76 8.27 9.49 26.03 0.47 55.89
13 AJ Green 9 158.4 17.6 8.17 9.43 25.77 0.46 55.5
14 Mike Evans 15 261.8 17.45 8.22 9.23 25.67 0.47 54.51
15 Stefon Diggs 14 251.6 17.97 9.08 8.89 27.05 0.51 53.53
16 Tyler Lockett 15 205.5 13.7 4.74 8.96 18.44 0.35 53.3
17 Tyreek Hill 15 302.4 20.16 12.38 7.78 32.54 0.61 53
18 Emmanuel Sanders 12 194.1 16.18 7.27 8.9 23.45 0.45 52.15
19 Brandin Cooks 14 221 15.79 7.01 8.78 22.79 0.44 51.35
20 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
21 Tyler Boyd 14 222.1 15.86 7.86 8.01 23.72 0.5 47.89
22 Willie Snead 13 134.9 10.38 3.18 7.2 13.56 0.31 44.26
23 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
24 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
25 Kenny Golladay 15 207.1 13.81 7.32 6.49 21.12 0.53 39.86
26 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
27 Alshon Jeffery 12 171.4 14.28 8.61 5.68 22.89 0.6 37.99
28 Curtis Samuel 11 123.6 11.24 4.93 6.31 16.16 0.44 36.86
29 Josh Gordon 12 141.7 11.81 5.61 6.2 17.42 0.48 36.66
30 Jarvis Landry 15 198.4 13.23 7.7 5.53 20.93 0.58 35.95
31 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
32 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
33 Jamison Crowder 8 81.1 10.14 4.08 6.06 14.21 0.4 35.34
34 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
35 Dede Westbrook 15 173.6 11.57 6.05 5.52 17.63 0.52 33.7
36 Larry Fitzgerald 15 168.8 11.25 5.64 5.61 16.9 0.5 33.69
37 Allen Robinson 13 159.3 12.25 7.1 5.15 19.36 0.58 33.39
38 Mohamed Sanu 15 162 10.8 5.21 5.59 16.01 0.48 33.21
39 Adam Humphries 15 181.1 12.07 6.9 5.17 18.97 0.57 33.2
40 DeSean Jackson 12 154.3 12.86 8.18 4.68 21.04 0.64 33.07
41 Christian Kirk 12 126.5 10.54 5.35 5.19 15.89 0.51 31.3
42 Sterling Shepard 15 171.9 11.46 6.72 4.74 18.18 0.59 31
43 Golden Tate 14 175.6 12.54 8.59 3.95 21.13 0.68 30.86
44 Amari Cooper 14 211.3 15.09 14.65 0.45 29.74 0.97 30.65
45 Albert Wilson 7 90.7 12.96 9.55 3.41 22.5 0.74 30.55
46 Paul Richardson 7 59.1 8.44 3.23 5.21 11.67 0.38 30.52
47 Keith Kirkwood 7 45.9 6.56 1.84 4.72 8.4 0.28 29.95
48 Robby Anderson 13 162 12.46 8.94 3.52 21.41 0.72 29.82
49 Calvin Ridley 15 195.6 13.04 10.43 2.61 23.47 0.8 29.35
50 Demaryius Thomas 15 157.7 10.51 5.9 4.61 16.41 0.56 29.25

A lot pf players in this list are still active heading into this week. Of course there is the question of who might get pulled but generally this is a case of start your guys and live with it. The thing to be careful of it who receivers have as their quarterback. For example the Panthers have Kyle Allen starting in New Orleans. The Saints may end up sitting players but Allen's presence makes it very difficult to trust Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Travis Kelce 15 285.4 19.03 9.91 9.12 28.93 0.52 55.57
2 Zach Ertz 15 277.8 18.52 10.49 8.03 29.01 0.57 51.22
3 George Kittle 15 228.8 15.25 7.76 7.49 23.02 0.51 45.22
4 Eric Ebron 15 207 13.8 8.13 5.67 21.93 0.59 37.21
5 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
6 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
7 Jordan Reed 12 123.8 10.32 4.42 5.9 14.73 0.43 34.42
8 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
9 Jared Cook 15 187.8 12.52 8.92 3.6 21.44 0.71 30.1
10 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
11 Evan Engram 10 103.6 10.36 5.48 4.88 15.84 0.53 29.96
12 Vance McDonald 14 128.1 9.15 4.96 4.19 14.11 0.54 26.02
13 Rob Gronkowski 12 128.8 10.73 7.93 2.8 18.66 0.74 25.26
14 Lee Smith 6 35.3 5.88 1.79 4.09 7.68 0.3 25.18
15 Austin Hooper 15 150.3 10.02 6.79 3.23 16.81 0.68 24.81
16 Greg Olsen 9 83.1 9.23 5.66 3.58 14.89 0.61 24.3
17 David Njoku 15 136.7 9.11 5.98 3.13 15.09 0.66 23
18 Kyle Rudolph 15 148.5 9.9 7.52 2.38 17.42 0.76 22.93
19 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
20 Chris Herndon 13 114.4 8.8 5.77 3.03 14.57 0.66 22.22
21 Jimmy Graham 15 125.5 8.37 5.23 3.14 13.6 0.63 21.75
22 Trey Burton 15 140.6 9.37 7.3 2.07 16.67 0.78 21.41
23 Mark Andrews 14 97.8 6.99 3.61 3.38 10.59 0.52 20.52
24 CJ Uzomah 15 103.3 6.89 4.05 2.84 10.94 0.59 18.6
25 Anthony Firkser 7 45.7 6.53 3.77 2.76 10.3 0.58 17.83
26 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
27 Ian Thomas 9 64.2 7.13 5.43 1.7 12.56 0.76 16.5
28 Ben Watson 12 82.1 6.84 5.15 1.69 12 0.75 15.92
29 Jake Butt 3 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44
30 Cameron Brate 14 90 6.43 4.75 1.68 11.18 0.74 15.12

You may have gathered that this position drives me nuts for fantasy football. It is is almost impossible to trust anyone but the very best, and even then they let you down. Of the players still active the top six (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Ebron, Cook and Engram) are now must-starts when on the field. Those are the six, with Gronkowski right there as well, that you just start and deal with the outcome. If you sit any of those guys then you are getting too cute, and if it does not work out for you then I assure that you will kick yourself for it Monday morning.

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Egor Demin

Available Against Hornets
Justin Herbert

Planning to Play Through Broken Bone in Left Hand in Week 14
Terance Mann

in Danger of Missing Monday's Game
Sauce Gardner

Likely to Miss a "Couple of Weeks" With Calf Strain
Noah Clowney

Considered Probable for Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed as Probable for Monday's Matchup
Caris LeVert

Expected Back Monday
Duncan Robinson

Questionable to Face Hawks
Jalen Duren

Likely to Return Against Hawks Monday
Brock Bowers

Records Two Touchdown Grabs in Week 13
Alexandre Sarr

Iffy for Monday
Mark Williams

Available Against Lakers Monday
Ryan Dunn

on Track to Return Monday
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Uncertain for Monday
Coby White

Returning to Bulls Lineup Monday
Paolo Banchero

Unavailable Monday
Larry Nance Jr.

to Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jarrett Allen

to Miss a Week of Action
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Listed as Probable for Monday
Anthony Davis

Likely to Play Against Nuggets Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Considered Probable for Monday
Justin Herbert

Suffers Fractured Hand in Week 13, Will Have Surgery
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Won't Play Sunday
Kimani Vidal

has Season-High in Rushing Yards in Win Over Raiders
De'Von Achane

Looks Unstoppable on the Ground in Week 13
Davante Adams

has Another Two-Touchdown Game
Aaron Jones Sr.

is Questionable to Return With Shoulder Injury
Adonai Mitchell

has Career Day With 102 Yards, Touchdown in Win
Andre Drummond

Available Versus Atlanta
VJ Edgecombe

Cleared to Suit Up on Sunday
Bijan Robinson

Compiles 191 Total Yards, Touchdown in Loss to Jets
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start Again in Week 14 Against Titans
Mike Evans

Could Return in Week 14
Keon Coleman

Active for Week 13
Dalton Kincaid

Officially Inactive for Week 13
Kyren Williams

Returns in Week 13 After Injury Scare
Kyren Williams

Suffers Apparent Leg Injury in Week 13, Status Unclear
Woody Marks

Returns in Week 13 After Injury Scare
Sauce Gardner

Colts Rule Out Sauce Gardner With Knee Injury
Woody Marks

Questionable to Return With Foot Injury
Kyler Murray

Not Fully Healthy Yet
Keon Coleman

Expected to Play Against Steelers
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
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Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Henri Jokiharju

Lands on Injured Reserve
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Pavel Zacha

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
David Pastrnak

Out for Second Consecutive Game
William Nylander

Available Saturday
Kyle Palmieri

Out for 6-8 Months With Torn ACL
Jake Walman

Sidelined for Third Consecutive Game
Jack Roslovic

to Miss Two Weeks
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

to Return Saturday
Mattias Samuelsson

in Concussion Protocol
Kyle Palmieri

Sustains Lower-Body Injury
Lukas Dostal

Ruled Out for 2-3 Weeks
Kirill Marchenko

Misses Third Straight Game
Jaden Schwartz

to Miss Six Weeks
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists

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