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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel NBA DFS lineup picks for 12/18/17.
We have a monstrous slate tonight. I, for one, am very happy about this. I'm always happy about DFS basketball, but this excitement may or may not be elevated thanks to the very disappointing day I had in football yesterday. Anyway, 10 games on deck tonight, with tip (and lock) at 7 pm EST and only one game (Warriors at Lakers) taking place after 8:30. In the no-late-swap world we currently live in, this is a blessing not just for our viewing pleasure, but also because we're that much more likely to know injury news before lock, and therefore much less likely to have our collective night ruined by a late scratch.
It's important to take a look at Vegas data and try to get a read on it - whether or not you believe in or chose to work it into your strategy. I mean, it should be a part of your strategy, but that's besides my point, which is to say it's been shown that there is a pretty high correlation between Vegas lines (particularly games with very high over/under totals) and player ownership. Having that knowledge prepares you for tournaments - who to lock in, who to fade, which games are the most attractive, which games are sleepers, etc. - and ultimately gives you an edge. In cash games, it has high importance as well, but the ownership component isn't as big a piece of the pie there. I'm without a few Vegas lines to talk about at the moment, but for the time being it looks like a slate with okay totals (200-207 range) and fairly tight spreads (2-6 points). I can live without totals over 215 if we have tight competition, as we'd likely see more minutes from starters. The Warriors at Lakers will likely have a huge number, but no listing as of now. The most attractive games for game stacking look like 76ers at Warriors (209), Celtics at Pacers (205) and Suns at Mavericks (208). The largest spread of the aforementioned games is just six points (Suns) and my favorite (76ers at Bulls) is just a one point spread.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel on 12/18/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and value plays on FanDuel.
FanDuel DFS Guards
Kyrie Irving - PG, at IND ($8,100)
I really like Kyrie in all formats tonight. He hasn't been super consistent, but I think the matchup is strong enough to use him in cash games and the ceiling is excellent, too, which puts him on my tournament radar. There are a lot of good point guards on the slate tonight, but he's sticking out to me for a number of reasons. He's flashed 50+ upside lately and if the tight Vegas spread (Boston -3) is any indication, this game should be a close contest and that means lots of Kyrie minutes and shot opportunities. Looking through his game logs, you'll find a number of games lately with a Usage rate above 30, which is outstadning and gives him a sturdy floor and raises his ceiling higher than a few of his peers who operate pass-first. Another thing to like about Irving (and his teammates, for that matter) is that the Pacers are on a back-to-back. Despite being big favorites on the road last night against the Nets, the game was fairly close and a lot of their starters and major contributors played big minutes. (Victor Oladipo, for one, played 41 minutes. That, a pretty high price tag, and the Celtics tough defense takes him out of cash play for me, but pairing he and Kyrie in tournaments is fun idea with a high ceiling.)
Tyler Ulis - PG, at DAL ($4,500)
The minutes just aren't stable enough to use in cash, which is unfortunate because he'd be a great value with his 30 minute projection. Guessing the minutes of any Suns player is a nightmare and a fools' errand at this point. This is a good matchup for Tyler though and I like him as a value in tournaments with about a 35 point ceiling. Dallas has been very soft against point guards this season, the Vegas total is relatively high and Ulis' Usage rate is usually in the 18-20 range and he's been producing .74 fantasy points a minute. Considering all that and the game context, that's a nice package for this price range.
Will Barton - SG, at OKC ($6,700)
One thing I love about Will is that, while he comes off the bench, he generally gets a starters allotment of minutes and is never cheated on shot opportunities. He's projected for 34 minutes tonight and a 23 Usage rate, which is right on par with what we get from a rested Barton. The Thunder can be a tough defense, but I do like the fact that since Barton comes off the bench and overlaps with both units, he'll see less of the Thunder defense I'd like him to avoid. This is a pretty solid price, too, as Barton has put up 44+ Fanduel points four times in just the last three weeks. With his point per dollar expectation tonight, I think he's a good cash play. In tounaments, I have interest as well thanks to the aforementioned ceiling and high minutes.
Lou Williams - SG, at SAS ($7,100)
Cash game players, feel free to browse at the other guards to consider and then move to the forwards - this one's just for tournaments. Williams has had a pretty damn good year thus far, putting up effective and three point field goal percentages quite a few notches higher than his career average and at a high volume, with a high volume at a 28 Usage rate. He is a bit volatile, though, is coming off a bad game (which should supress his ownership, I hope) and the Spurs defense can be tough, so reserve this play for tournaments. That said, if the shot is falling, the ceiling is high and this looks like a game he could be called upon early and often.
Other DFS Guards to Consider: Victor Oladipo - SG, vs BOS ($9,300); Donovan Mitchell - SG, at HOU ($7,400)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Harrison Barnes - SF, vs PHX ($7,100)
There are some small forwards that look worth paying up for in cash in Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler, but a back issue for Butler worries me he could be hampered or even sit (currently listed as Questionable) and paying for Durant is tough on a day with so many studs that look worthy of your FanDuel cash. This looks like a potential smash spot to me, in the sense that this is a soft opponent where the Mavericks will have more possessions thanks to their opponents' pace, and in the sense that I think his ownership could be a little depressed thanks to the aforementioned Durant and Butler.
Dario Saric - PF, at CHI ($6,500)
Any time Joel Embiid is ruled out, wings and fours like Robert Covington and Dario Saric immediately become of interest - especially with Ben Simmons emphasizing his pass-first role over the past few weeks. Despite a price hike of $1,100 over the past 10 games, Saric has beaten his price implied value in seven of those 10, doing so by an impressive margin of more than three FanDuel points per night. It doesn't appear that Embiid's absence was factored into his price, and as such, I think he's in a pretty good smash spot. He should see a minutes and Usage rate increase, and projections have him for 34 and 23 tonight, respectively. Being that he's been a .89 FanDuel point per minute guy this season, that creates a pretty stable floor and higher-than-usual ceiling tonight.
Other DFS Forwards to Consider: Jordan Bell - PF, at LAL ($4,700); Ben Simmons - PF, at CHI ($9,900); Kevin Durant - SF, at LAL ($10
FanDuel DFS Centers
Richaun Holmes - C, at CHI ($4,300)
With so many positions worth paying up for tonight, I'm glad there are a handful of value centers. A rested Holmes is currently my favorite, as he's been excellent this season from a point per minute perspective (1.05) and should see 22+ minutes in Joel Embiid's absence. Holmes has been playing very well of late, too, smashing value in three of his last five. Tonight, I have him projected for a 20 Usage rate and Chicago's soft interior should hand him some second looks and easy rebounds.
Other DFS Centers to Consider: Dwight Howard - C, vs NYK; DeAndre Jordan - C, at SAS ($8,200); Tyson Chandler - C, at DAL ($5,000)
