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Ed Sutelan analyzes the performance of recently promoted MLB prospects and how they factor into the 2017 fantasy baseball picture in week 10.
Welcome to the 2017 edition of the Recently Promoted Prospects! Here I discuss some recently promoted prospects and what to make of their production for fantasy owners.
We are getting closer and closer to the Super Two deadline for many players in the minors. In the coming weeks, we could start to see guys like Yoan Moncada, Austin Meadows and Franklin Barreto called up to the majors to help fantasy owners. But while you wait for those guys to reach the majors, you should read about the guys who were recently promoted.
So without any further ado, let’s get right into talking about the recently promoted prospects for week 10!
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Hitters:
Brett Phillips (OF, MIL) - 1% owned
Last year, MLB Pipeline ranked Phillips as the 63rd best prospect in baseball and the seventh best prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers system. This season, he is unranked in the top 100, and sits as the 10th best prospect in the Brew Crew’s system. Should you be concerned by the drop in stock? Maybe not. While the biggest concerns with Phillips were plate discipline, and his strikeout rate has only gone up, he has only built on his biggest strengths.
His walks have gone down 2.4 percent and his strikeout rate has gone up 0.5 percent. Bad news. His batting average has gone up .068 to .297 and he now has 11 home runs in 49 games compared to 16 in 124 games last season. Good news. The strikeouts aren’t going away, but the power is emerging as a plus tool for him, and he certainly has the defense to earn starting time in Milwaukee. The problem is, he was only called up to help the outfield with Ryan Braun out, and the Brewers have guys like Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana manning the other two positions. And with Lewis Brinson tearing up Triple-A, Phillips could soon find himself behind Brinson as well. Phillips could be a decent trade candidate at the deadline if Milwaukee wants to be buyers, but until then, he doesn’t need to be owned in any leagues.
Austin Slater (OF, SF) - 0% owned
Slater is one of those players whose minor-league numbers exceed the scouting report. He has received 50 grades across the board, yet has always shown promising numbers in the minors. Last season, between Double- and Triple-A, he compiled 18 home runs and eight stolen bases with a .309 batting average in 109 games. Those numbers might look like a top prospect, but scouts aren’t entirely sold, and mostly see a fourth outfielder, with a ceiling of a league-average starter. His stay might be brief in the majors with Michael Morse and Jarrett Parker returning from their injuries. And while he could still reach his upside at some point, he may not have enough playing time in the majors to reach that level this season.
Francisco Pena (C, BAL) - 0% owned
Does the catcher eligibility get you excited? It should. Pena once looked like a decent hitting prospect, tallying 27 home runs in 2014 despite playing in only 96 games at Triple-A. He was promoted briefly to the majors, and did nothing. Part of that was because he has always struggled to make contact, and also because he’s a defensive liability behind the dish. Recently, he was called up to replace Wellington Castillo, and showed why he hasn’t had a major impact in the big leagues as he made a crucial throwing error that ultimately cost his team the game. Though he does have some power, his taste of the big leagues is limited, and he is not expected to have a starting role in the majors anytime soon.
Matt Olson (1B/OF, OAK) - 0% owned
Olson has been dominating the minors and received a brief promotion to the majors, but was optioned back to Triple-A on Tuesday. The 23-year-old has compiled an impressive .285/.374/.575 slash line with 14 homers and a pair of steals. And while his demotion is somewhat disappointing, owners should expect to have not seen the last of Olson, as some are speculating he could come back to the majors in the second half of the season and replace a struggling Matt Joyce as the team looks to get a bit younger. But until such a time occurs, he can be left on the waivers.
Tyler Smith (2B/SS, SEA) - 0% owned
Smith was recently promoted by Seattle to serve as a bench bat/utility defender for their ball club. His bat does not have much to promise owners, but his glove could prove valuable for the Mariners as he is capable of playing all infield positions. However, without much of a bat to bring owners, Smith can just be left on the waivers.
Pitchers:
Jeff Hoffman (SP, COL) - 12% owned
Guess who’s back?! It’s Hoffman, making his third appearance on this list. Hoffman has been up and down all season, but with yet another outstanding start behind him, he could be making a case for an extended stay in the majors. Hoffman has now made back-to-back spot starts in which he went seven innings, allowed only a run on three hits and walked none. He fanned seven the first time out, and nine the second time. I should be clear though, those starts came against Philadelphia and San Diego . . . so it’s not like he was facing any All-Star lineups. But this Saturday against Chicago will be his first real test to see if he’s big-league ready.
Overall on the season, his time in the majors has built up an impressive stat line. He has a 2.61 ERA, 2.71 FIP with a ridiculous 13.00 K/BB ratio, managed by a 33.8 percent strikeout rate and 2.6 percent walk rate. Those numbers are likely unsustainable, but should highlight the fact Hoffman is a top prospect who likely warrants a spot in the rotation. For now, he remains in the rotation until Tyler Anderson returns, and Jon Gray’s impending return complicates things further, but if Hoffman keeps pitching like this, the team may have to try and find room for him. If not, his performance in the majors could make him a valuable trade chip, especially as he sits on a team that is surprisingly loaded with pitching in Colorado.
Ben Lively (SP, PHI) - 3% owned
Now making his second trip up to the MLB active roster, Lively finally got to debut, making a start against San Francisco in which he allowed just one run on four hits and three walks over seven innings. Did I not mention the strikeouts? That’s because there were none. But those who know Lively shouldn’t be altogether surprised. What was more surprising was the three walks.
This is because Lively is known for exceptional control of his pitches, but a lack of a dominant arsenal. He walked only 3.2 percent of opposing batters prior to his promotion, but also only struck out 20.3 percent. Scouts believe in his future as a starter given his command and solid — if ordinary — repertoire and believe that he should be a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater. His lack of strikeouts limits fantasy appeal, but those who considered Ty Blach a worthy own in fantasy leagues ought to consider Lively who is essentially his right-handed equivalent (albeit with slightly more strikeouts). This is assuming, however, that he sticks around in the majors, which looks unlikely if either Clay Buchholz or Vince Velasquez return sometime soon.
Sean Newcomb (SP, ATL) - 1% owned
In somewhat of a surprising move, the Braves revealed they will be promoting their third-best pitching prospect Sean Newcomb on Saturday to start against the Mets. In his first taste of Triple-A, Newcomb has demonstrated why so many are excited about him by posting a 2.97 ERA, 3.24 FIP and stellar 29.7 percent strikeout rate. However, he also has shown why some are skeptical of him, as he has walked 13.3 percent of batters faced.
The 23-year-old is still very young, and scouts all clamor about his electric stuff. But the control issues are legit, and he appears to be almost a carbon-copy of Pirates right-hander Tyler Glasnow, as they are both tall, flame-throwing pitchers with electric stuff who have never shown an ability to limit the walks. The Mets are a patient team, as exhibited by their 9.2 percent team walk rate (ninth-best in the majors) and will wait Newcomb out and make sure he throws strikes. If he can’t control the strike zone, he may not make it to the fifth inning in his start, and could find himself heading back to the minors with Matt Wisler (the rumored starter for the second game of the Braves’ doubleheader) likely to stay in the majors. His strikeout upside makes him an intriguing pitching prospect, but until he proves he can throw strikes, he should only be owned in deep dynasty leagues.
Jacob Faria (SP, TB) - 1% owned
Faria was promoted to start Wednesday’s game for Tampa against the White Sox. And while the game happened before this article was published, the writer wrote the article on Monday because of travel on Tuesday. So, for now, let’s just talk about what to like about Faria.
First off, he is a strikeout machine. Prior to his promotion, he fanned 34.7 percent of opposing batters in the minors, a stat that ranked second among Triple-A starters. He has also demonstrated surprisingly decent command for someone with his electric stuff, walking batters only 9.1 percent of the time. Scouts aren’t sold on his breaking pitches just yet, but love his fastball and changeup, believing that to be his calling card in the majors. If he sticks around the rotation, Faria will give owners high strikeout totals, though it comes at the risk of an occasional clunker given his lack of breaking offerings. But he should be a solid enough starter to own in 12+ team leagues if he sticks around.
Brad Goldberg (RP, CWS) - 0% owned
Goldberg was promoted by the White Sox and made his MLB debut Saturday, giving up four runs on three hits (including a homer) and a walk. So you could say things didn’t quite go as planned. The former Buckeye had been solid at Triple-A Charlotte before his debut, striking out 23.2 percent of opposing batters, limiting the walks to just 9.5 percent and posting a stellar 1.99 ERA and 3.18 FIP. But while he should be counted on to perform better than his debut may have indicated, he is still a long ways away from saves and holds little value in fantasy leagues.
