Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part two of our Week 16 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the second half of the Week 16 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Week 15 Recap

Greatest Hits: Jordy Nelson (WR, GB), Ryan Griffin (TE, HOU), Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

Nelson didn't score for only the second time since Week 8, but still produced WR1 numbers with seven catches for 124 yards. Griffin was a nice sleeper pick at TE that paid off to the tune of eight catches and 85 yards with CJ Fiedorowicz out of commission. Hill came away without a reception and a total of three return yards on the day, yet it took less than five minutes of game time before he rewarded fantasy owners. Hill took a handoff 68 yards to the house, proving that he is always a big play waiting to happen.

Greatest Misses: Andrew Luck (QB, IND), Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI), Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN)

I predicted 250 yards and two TD as the ceiling for Luck in Week 15 and he nailed it exactly. Not a dominant performance that would have won you a playoff game single-handedly, but he certainly didn't need to be benched. Mathews somehow produced his best game of the season against the top rushing defense in the league, stunning everyone by collecting 128 yards and a touchdown. Eifert fell victim to the Steelers' vastly improved defense, as his three-game scoring streak was snapped.

 

Colts @ Raiders - Saturday 12/24 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Andrew Luck (QB, IND) - Luck wasn't slowed by the Vikings defense last week and now he faces an Oakland defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to QBs. The Raiders have improved quite a bit on defense in the second half, so don't expect a 400-yard outburst. Luck should rank among the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points this week, though.

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK) - Murray has caught fire down the stretch, rushing for at least 80 yards in his last three games and scoring four TD in the last four games. Oakland has been feeding him the ball more after the three-headed monster from early season proved to be a failed experiment. If you stuck with Murray or managed to steal him from a frustrated owner, start him with confidence these final weeks. Indianapolis has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season, making Murray a low-end RB1.

Amari Cooper (WR, OAK) - After a massive letdown last week in San Diego, Cooper could be in store for redemption in Week 16. Vontae Davis has been a shell of his former self this year, which gives Cooper every opportunity to exploit this matchup. Cooper has struggled at the wrong time, bringing in 29 and 28 yards in the last two weeks, but it would be a risk to pull him out of your lineup at this point.

Matchups We Hate

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - It's becoming painfully obvious that the dislocated pinky finger is bothering Carr. He's thrown for a total of 590 yards and three TD the last three weeks, which works out to an average of 196 yards and one touchdown. Those aren't the type of numbers that will get it done in your fantasy championship game. The Colts present a favorable matchup, but it's just not clear that Carr can repeat his early season success.

Notable Players

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - Gore isn't showing any signs of wear and tear late into the season, even as he approaches the 250-carry mark. He's also on the verge of his ninth 1,000-yard rushing season. The only issue with Gore is the touchdown vulture that lurks on the sidelines - Robert Turbin. Turbin has taken the goal-line plunge six times, compared to four times for Gore. He does have four receiving touchdowns on the year, however. Gore should remain in all lineups as a steady performer in a fairly good matchup.

 

Bucs @ Saints - Saturday 12/24 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - It's safe to say Brees is back. The two-week stretch in which he shocked and likely angered many fantasy owners was put to an abrupt halt with 389 yards and four TD against Arizona. Now Brees is back at home, looking to redeem himself from his first matchup with Tampa. Just two weeks ago, he had the second of his zero touchdown, three INT performances against these Bucs. Don't bet on a repeat. Brees is too good to bench, as he proved last Sunday.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - Good news for Saints fans and Thomas owners - his foot injury seems to be a thing of the past. Thomas returned to score a touchdown and collect seven receptions for 52 yards against the Cardinals. He should get the better end of the secondary matchup this week, facing rookie Vernon Hargreaves the majority of the time. Place him back into your WR2 spot if you didn't already.

Mike Evans (WR, TB) - The first time these teams met, Evans was surprisingly held to 42 yards on four catches. He hasn't gone over four receptions or 60 yards in the last three weeks, killing owners who have been riding him to the playoffs. What's more concerning is that his enormous target totals have fallen to single digits in each of those games. If you're still in the playoff mix, don't sit him now. The Saints allow the seventh-most yards to wide receivers and were lit up by the Cardinals last week.

Cameron Brate (TE, TB) - Brate hasn't just entered the TE1 conversation, he is a bonafide every-week starter. Brate is second only to Mike Evans in targets on the Bucs and actually has more red zone targets (18) than Evans (17). He scored his seventh touchdown of the year in Week 15 and is a good bet to do so against the Saints' soft secondary.

Matchups We Hate

Coby Fleener (TE, NO) - The loss of Josh Hill for the season didn't help Fleener's stock, it somehow did the opposite. Fleener has a total of three receptions and 16 yards the last two games, with three targets in each. He hasn't scored since Week 11 either, making him downright droppable.

Notable Players

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO) - Starting Cooks at the Dome isn't house money like it used to be, but he needs to stay in your lineup nonetheless. His huge game last week was a pleasant surprise, especially on the road. His previous three games, he came away with a total of 12 catches for 134 yards. Tampa Bay has come alive defensively since November began, but suddenly looked vulnerable against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last week. Cooks is looking more like a boom-bust receiver, but one that you must start at all times.

Doug Martin (RB, TB) - If he hadn't found the end zone three times in eight games this season, Martin would have nothing on his resume to prove he belongs on fantasy rosters. His rushing totals the last three weeks are 45, 66, and 42, leaving his yards per game at 52.6 with a miserable 2.9 Y/A. Facing the Saints on the turf is a matchup too good to ignore, however. There aren't too many more reliable options at the RB2 spot, so should probably be starting for you this week.

 

49ers @ Rams - Saturday 12/24 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - Kaepernick has actually scored more fantasy points on the road than at home this season. Now he faces a team in disarray with a defense that is fading in the latter half of the season. The Rams have lost five in a row, with four of those coming in blowout fashion. Since being pulled in Chicago, Kap hasn't put up the same type of numbers as earlier in the season, but his rushing ability keeps his floor relatively high. In two-quarterback leagues, he should be starting but it would be a tough call to put him as your QB1 with a fantasy championship on the line.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) - Hyde has come alive lately, running for 356 yards in the last three games. Hyde scored twice in Week 1 against the Rams, back when Jeff Fisher was running things. The Rams are in the middle of the pack against RB, making Hyde a fairly safe RB2 in Week 16.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - Gurley may redeem himself to some extent as we round out the 2016 season. He predictably fell flat at Seattle last week, but managed 61 yards and a TD in his last home game. If Jared Goff is out with his concussion issues this week, Gurley should get a big diet of carries against the worst rushing defense in the league. Even if he doesn't come up with his first 100-yard effort of the year, he should at least find a way to score.

Matchups We Hate

Tavon Austin (WR, LA) - Austin appears every once in a while to make sure we remember how fast he is before promptly disappearing for three more weeks. He is big-play dependent, with those coming few and far in between this season. Against the Niners in Week 1, Austin was targeted a whopping 12 times and somehow came away with just four catches for 13 yards. The Rams may be going with Sean Mannion at QB this week, which doesn't bode well for any Rams receiver other than Kenny Britt, regardless of the juicy matchup.

Notable Players

Garrett Celek (TE, SF) - Celek could find himself in the same category as Ryan Griffin of the Texans last week - a value TE play for DFS and deep standard leagues. Vance McDonald is on IR, so Celek will become the primary pass-catching tight end. He promptly caught a TD in his first extended action last week. He is probably isn't worth a shot in PPR leagues.

 

Cardinals @ Seahawks- Saturday 12/24 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

David Johnson (RB, ARI) - Possibly the only player reliable enough to start in this game, Johnson cannot be placed outside the top five running backs in any week. Johnson produced 171 total yards on a whopping 33 rush attempts in the first matchup between these teams, proving that he is matchup proof and making him the only Arizona player to love in Week 16.

Matchups We Hate

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - Both Wilson and the defense he faces have been a bit schizophrenic lately. A week after throwing five interceptions at Green Bay, he put up three touchdowns versus the Rams. The Cardinals are statistically one of the best against QBs, but were lit up by Drew Brees for 389 yards and four TD last week. Rolling out Wilson as your starting QB is a huge gamble this week, especially if you remember the touchdown-less 6-6 debacle in Week 7.

John Brown (WR, ARI) - Between Weeks 10-14, Brown had a five game span with a grand total of three catches and 49 yards. Then, he suddenly broke out with 81 yards and a TD against New Orleans. It was his second TD and his second-highest receiving output of the season. Even if you are tempted to take a chance on him as a WR3 streamer, keep in mind he will be facing Richard Sherman for much of the day.

Notable Players

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI) - Fitz has been fairly dependable in PPR leagues, but he can no longer be considered a WR1. Since scoring five TD in the first five weeks, he hasn't reached the end zone since. He caught nine passes for 70 yards against Seattle in Week 7, so there is hope for a decent point total, albeit one with a limited ceiling.

 

Bengals @ Texans - Saturday 12/24 @ 8:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - In a roller coaster year for the Texans offense, Miller is finishing the year strong. He's gotten over 20 carries the last two games, scoring in each. His 107 yards in Week 14 put him over the 1,000 yard mark on the season and he added 63 more to that total in Week 15. The potential threat of a passing game under a new QB should only improve his numbers. Miller can be considered a low-end RB1 this week.

Matchups We Hate

A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - Green returns from a four-week layoff and a torn hamstring to help the Bengals finish up the season. The problem is that the Bengals are out of the playoff race and have no reason to push Green beyond his physical limits. It's hard to imagine he will see double-digit targets right away. He doesn't have an easy matchup either, going up against a Texans secondary that has held its own all season. He makes for a risky start this week.

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - The stat line will show that Hill scored for the third straight week, giving him nine TD on the season. It won't show that it took Hill about 6-7 tries from inside the five yard line to finally break the plane after being stuffed each time before. Hill is averaging 2.6 yards per attempt in the last four games since Gio Bernard went down. He has truly become touchdown dependent. A road game against a team fighting for its playoff life may prove too much for Hill to produce value.

Notable Players

Tom Savage (QB, HOU) - Savage was efficient in relief of a struggling Brock Osweiler, going 23-for-36 with 260 yards against Jacksonville. The Bengals have been inconsistent against the pass this season, but aren't weak enough to consider rolling with Savage as anything but a punt play in daily leagues. He may elevate the value of his receivers with another solid game, but he has little standalone value at the moment.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - Nuk has to be the happiest of all the Texans to see Osweiler on the sideline. As soon as the QB switch was made, Hopkins saw his highest target total of the season with 17 against the Jags. We'd love to put him immediately back on the WR1 map, but this matchup isn't the most favorable. Hopkins will square off against Pacman Jones and a Bengals team that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WR. He appears to be playable once more, but expectations need to be tempered.

 

Ravens @ Steelers - Sunday 12/25 @ 4:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) - The Steelers put up points at home, which could prompt the Ravens to put the ball in the air frequently. They already own the highest pass/run ratio of all NFL teams this season, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Flacco could throw the ball 40 or more times. He's already done so nine times this year. He also has a pair of 300 yard games in the last three contests. Higher volume may equal high fantasy point totals this week.

Le'Veon Bell (RB, PIT) - As winter approaches, no player has been hotter than Bell. In the last five games, Bell is averaging 190 yards from scrimmage with a total of five TD. The Ravens are a top-five run defense, but were gashed by Ryan Mathews last week for 134 yards. There is little reason to think Bell won't produce another big game when it counts.

Matchups We Hate

Terrance West (RB, BAL) - The snap share tilted back in West's favor in Week 15, after it seemed that rookie Kenneth Dixon had finally wrestled the starting job away from him. West carried 13 times for 77 yards, his highest output since Week 6. That isn't enough to satisfy fantasy owners at the end of the season in crucial games, nor does it promise to be repeatable given his recent history. West could take a back seat to Dixon if the Ravens go pass-happy as they've been prone to do this season.

Steve Smith (WR, BAL) - Smith found his way onto the scoreboard last week in Philly, but now faces one of the hottest defenses in the league. No team has passed for as much as 220 yards in the last five games against the Steelers. Smith will face a combination of William Gay and Ross Cockrell for most of the day, making it hard to trust him even as a WR3.

Notable Players

Kenneth Dixon (RB, BAL) - Just when it looked like the Ravens' backfield situation was settled with Dixon taking the lead role, he became a limited participant in Week 15. Dixon carried the ball nine times and didn't see a single target in the passing game. He saved his fantasy day with a touchdown run, but 36 yards and no receptions aren't going to inspire much confidence heading into this matchup with the Steel Curtain. He is a potential flex play with a degree of risk.

 

Broncos @ Chiefs - Sunday 12/25 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) - Keep him in your lineup, plain and simple. Hill is the type of player that doesn't need a good matchup or high target volume to be productive. He proved that within the first five minutes of the game in Week 15 by taking an end around 68 yards to the house. He didn't catch a pass the entire game, but he had already paid off for those who started him. If you remember the show he put on the last time KC faced Denver on Monday Night Football, you have no business questioning whether to start him.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN) - The Broncos will certainly try to exploit the same matchup from Week 12 when Sanders burned Steve Nelson twice for big gains. He finished with 162 yards and a TD in that game. It's unlikely he will pull the same stunt twice, but Sanders is producing like a WR2 nonetheless and needs to be treated as such this week.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC) - Kelce shouldn't be sat just because the Broncos are in town. Last season, Kelce totaled nine receptions for 94 yards against Denver. This season, however, he torched them for 101 yards in Week 12. Kelce leads all tight ends in receptions and is second in receiving yards. He is a no-brain start regardless of matchup.

Matchups We Hate

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) - Booker hasn't been able to hang onto the starting RB job, ceding carries to twice waived Justin Forsett. Booker only carried the ball six times for 17 yards last week, which was actually an improvement over his three carries for one yard the previous week. Booker isn't just benchable - he can be dropped in re-draft leagues.

Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC) - It had been a while since Maclin made an impact in a game, but he did so with six receptions for 82 yards against the Titans. This time Maclin will face the stingiest secondary in the league to opposing wide receivers. Many a star wideout has been shutout by Denver this season; Maclin doesn't have enough appeal to even be considered as a flex play this week.

Notable Players

Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN) - Siemian is putting up a fair amount of passing yards lately, but that comes mostly as a result of game flow. The Broncos no longer have a viable running game, so Siemian has been forced to pass nearly 40 times a game the last several weeks. It's hard to imagine he will go for another 368 yards and three TD facing KC again, this time in Arrowhead Stadium. In his last two games, Siemian has a 1/1 TD/INT rate. He is a high-end QB2 in Week 16.

Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!