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Demetri looks back at his bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy baseball season
Welcome back to RotoBaller's 2016 Bold Predictions series. We've heard from several writers already, but have plenty more fearless forecasts coming down the pike. Today, it's my turn to put my sterling reputation on the line.
I would love to blame most of these on me spending a couple months in Greece this summer. But I made all 10 of these predictions way before my bags were packed. Let's take a look.
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Grading the Predictions
1) Mark Teixeira will play more than 140 games
I was only 24 games shy. You almost did it, Mark, you almost did it. In a season where Teixeira played in 116 games, surpassing last year's total by five, the Yankees veteran first baseman saw his lowest drop in production in his 14 year stint; a career low 14 home runs and 44 RBI. He battled neck spasms in May, took a trip to the DL in June after tearing cartilidge in his right knee, but then remained relatively healthy the rest of the way. He hit his 400th home run in early July and then about a month later, announced that this would be the last season he rocks pinstripes and any other MLB uniform.
Tex has missed around 300 games since 2012, but after a healthy spring, this was his year to play in a full campaign. Joe Girardi also benched Tex a handful of times, and started the young, blooming Tyler Austin and late-season acquired veteran, Billy Butler. Makes you wonder how many more dingers he would have hit if he played in a majority of all those he missed in his career, if he stayed healthy. Some guys simply can't.
Grade: C+
2) Will Smith to finish within top 10 of saves
Yikes. In order to finish within the top 10 of saves, you need to start by recording at least one. Will Smith did not, failing to get jiggy with it for the Brewers. Smith was never the closer in Milwaukee, and didn't taste the role when he was traded to the San Fransisco Giants. Battling with Jeremy Jeffress for the gig in spring training, Smith was beaten by his competitor. Even Jeffress was later replaced by Tyler Thornburg after being shipped to Texas. I wish this was the worst it got on this list, although this is certainly in the running.
Grade: F
3) Jacoby Ellsbury will steal more than 40 stolen bases
Does half of 40 count? Ellsbury was off to a solid pace, stealing five in April and then six in May, but then something really, really strange, like mind-boggling strange, like some Twilight Zone strange, happened. He. Stopped. Running. It's not like the dude wasn't getting on base, obviously not at an accelerated rate like he was before the Yankees unloaded a UPS truck filled with money on him, but he was. He simply chose to inch, centimeter by centimeter, to second base, something I guess we can consider a "lead," and stayed put. He clearly enjoyed talking to the opposing first baseman more than swiping a bag considering he stole only three in June, three in July, one (in 102 AB) in August, and two in September. As a matter of fact, Ellsbury went August 21st to September 29th without a single stolen base. Wait, without a single attempt. I won't sugarcoat this, Jacoby. You're the worst signing in Yankees franchise history.
Grade: D
4) Miami Marlins to contend in the NL East
Alright, we're finally getting somewhere. At the end of July, the Miami Marlins were four games back of the Washington Nationals for first place in the division, and two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top wild card spot in the National League. Their odds at making the playoffs sat at an impressive, and surprising, 38.9%. But then August happened, the team posted a damaging 11-18 record for the month, and were surpassed by the surging New York Mets. There was a hint of glory, flirting with potential of the future. Getting a head start on 2017 predictions, the Marlins will contend again next season.
Grade: B
5) Nolan Arenado wins National League MVP
There are four candidates vying for this honor; Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Daniel Murphy, and Nolan Arenado. Arenado arguably has the best all around numbers out of the four, with his .292 average, 41 home runs and 133 RBI. But, he plays at Coors Field for half the season, which could very well hinder some voters from giving him the nod. Then we have Murphy's insane average of .345 and solid production, and the teammates in Chicago. We won't know if this bold prediction will come to fruition until after a new team is crowned World Series Champion, but Arenado is an MVP in my book.
Grade: B+
6) Blake Swihart will finish inside Top 10 of fantasy catchers
And my two-prediction streak comes to a loud, screeching halt. Blake Swihart was named Boston's opening day catcher, but was quickly replaced by Christian Vasquez because of the pitching rotation's struggles. After his demotion, Swihart moved to left field in the minors, and was recalled to the bigs about two weeks following. 11 starts in the outfield later, Swihart collided with the Green Monster and broke his ankle. See you later prediction.
Grade: D-
7) Aaron Hicks will play more games than Brett Gardner
Brett Gardner struggled against lefties. He also struggled against righties. But nobody had a rougher time in pinstripes this season than Aaron Hicks. Hicks couldn't even sneeze near a pitch thrown by a lefty without striking out, and batted .161 in 118 AB versus southpaws. Hicks played in 25 less games than Gardner, so I was close. But no cigar for me. I predicted that this would be the season that Hicks breaks out, and Gardner finds the bench permanently. Neither happened.
Grade: D
8) Tyler Duffey: American League Cy Young candidate
So I'm pretty sure a 9-12 record, with a 6.93 ERA (Yikes), 25 homers allowed, in 133.0 innings pitched and 25 games started, should earn him some votes. I just don't know how many exactly. Duffey certainly regressed in his second stint in the MLB, and his first real opportunity of a full season's workload, following 10 impressive starts in 2015. Maybe it didn't help that the Minnesota Twins finished with the league's worst record, and were 35.5 games out of first place at season's end.
Grade: F
9) Joe Mauer will bat .300
This one was looking pretty good for me. Then April ended, and Mauer's .321 record for the month was replaced with a .253 May average, then lowered even more by a .223 June showing. The former league MVP did have an outstanding August, posting a .337 average and 14 ribbies, but then finished September with an .111 average in limited plate appearances. So, there's that. 2016 marks the third straight season that Mauer has hit below .280.
Grade: D
10) At least one Colorado Rockies pitcher will win 10 games
Whoop whoop, I got one, regardless of how soft of a prediction this was. Jon Gray finished the 2016 campaign with 10 wins on the nose (phew), but my bet was hedged by Chad Bettis and his strong finish to the season. Bettis recorded 14 wins and lowered an ERA that flirted with 6.00 in early July down to 4.89. Granted nothing too impressive, but Bettis surprisingly had much better numbers at the pitcher's nightmare, Coors Field. At home, Bettis went 8-2 with a 4.44 ERA, and allowed eight fewer home runs than on the road. He also added a complete game shutout against the playoff-bound San Fransisco Giants in early September. Looks like we both ended on a high note.
Grade: A
