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If you’re a regular reader of RotoBaller (and how could someone as smart, funny, and handsome as you not be?), you’ve doubtless already checked out our staff rankings. We'll be releasing our final preseason update next week.
With draft season ramping up now, though, it seems like a good time to check our expert opinions against the wisdom of the crowds. Over the next several days, we’ll highlight players with notable discrepancies between their ADP and how the staff here at RotoBaller views their 2016 value.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros. Quoted figures are the players’ ranking at their position and not their overall ADP.
Third Basemen We Prefer
ADP: 11th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 9th | My rank: 9th
During his first six years in the majors, Longoria was three things: the most valuable player in all of baseball by fWAR, vastly underpaid, and remarkably consistent. His last two seasons, however, have been disappointing. He’s hitting for less power, getting on base less frequently, and not making as much hard contact as he used to. So what’s the good news? Even with that decline, he’s ranked in the top six at the position in the standard counting stats, and he’s missed only four games in the past three seasons. You could make a convincing argument that he might benefit from the occasional breather, but there’s a lot to be said for the value of durability. Longoria is also only in his age-30 season, so it’s not crazy to think he could recover some of what he’s lost.
ADP: 12th | RB Rank: 10th | My rank: 10th
Franco’s rookie season was truncated by a broken wrist and spending the first month and change at Triple-A, but he acquitted himself well in his 80 games. Despite hitting in an anemic Phillies lineup, he piled up 95 R+RBI to go with his .280 average and 14 homers. His aggressive approach means he’ll never be an OBP darling, but his combination of contact and power is fairly uncommon. Six qualified hitters posted an isolated power above .200 and a strikeout rate below 16% last season: Jose Bautista, Manny Machado, Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Albert Pujols, and David Ortiz. If Franco had made enough trips to the plate, he would have been the seventh. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle the league adjusting to him, but Franco has the tools and the pedigree for continued success.
ADP: 26th | RB Rank: 22nd | My rank: 19th
Plouffe set career highs in homers, RBI, and runs scored last season, finishing in the top 10 in the first two categories among third basemen and 12th in the latter. He’s a liability in the batting average department, but I’d rather have him on my roster than several others being drafted ahead of him at the hot corner (Brett Lawrie and Pablo Sandoval, among others).
ADP: 27th | RB Rank: 20th | My rank: 18th
A quick glance at his numbers suggests that Castellanos is a mediocre player who didn’t show much in the way of improvement in 2015, his sophomore season. But he produced at every stop in the minors despite routinely being young for his level, and only turned 24 this month. He also hit much better in the second half last season than his overall numbers would have you believe, slashing .275/.323/.481 with nine homers. The usual caveats about sample size and arbitrary endpoints aside, Castellanos is precisely the sort of player from whom using half splits might actually be useful – a young player with pedigree. He’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts to facilitate a breakout, but his all-fields approach and quality of contact suggest untapped batting average upside.
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