RADIO
I really thought NFL Doomsday was a once a year thing. In Week 3 I wrote, "NFL Doomsday has come and gone. Hopefully that will be the last week of its kind this season." Unfortunately I was wrong. This week was more devastating though. How did the Packers lose to the Lions? How did the Bengals lose to the Texans? The NFL is so frustrating and impossible to predict, nothing is ever a sure thing. Every team can be beaten. This week the Browns, Giants, Saints, and Steelers are on bye. Oh, and thanks again NFL for scheduling eight bad early games, and only three late games.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 11, per sportsbook.ag (HOME team in caps); SEAHAWKS -12.5 vs 49ers, PANTHERS -7.5 vs. Redskins, PATRIOTS -7 vs. Bills, FALCONS -6 vs. Colts
Top Survivor Picks for Week 11
SEAHAWKS -12.5 vs. 49ers
Both teams aren't good, but the 49ers are awful. The 49ers start Blaine Gabbert and are likely without Carlos Hyde's services again. Don't overrate their win two weeks ago against the Falcons, as they aren't good either. In their last three games they've scored 25 points, the fewest among all teams in that span. Their defense isn't good either, allowing 25 points per game.
The Seahawks lost their must win game this past Sunday night, but now face the rival Niners. They own the Niners of late, compiling three straight wins and six of the last seven. I think the Seahawks finally break out in this game and score some points. I really can't see Gabbert moving the ball in Seattle. Seahawks in a blowout.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 11
PANTHERS -7.5 vs. Washington
I am calling for DC to pull off the upset. Washington has been in every game they played and even played the Patriots pretty well. They are average in most stats, but I love how Kirk Cousins has DeSean Jackson back. Jackson will make defenses play the deep threat, taking some stress off the running game. This game is more about Carolina though.
The Panthers are 9-0 and the toast of the NFL. Cam Newton is an MVP contender, and has seemingly done it all for them on the offensive side. That said, the Panthers will have their eyes on bringing their undefeated record for a Thanksgiving date in Dallas. This game has letdown written all over it. I'm not the biggest fan of their offense, and far too often they let teams hang around. Their games have been tighter than the scores have shown and they could have lost to any of their last four opponents. I think it finally catches up to them.
EAGLES -5.5 vs. Bucs
I don't understand how Mark Sanchez is a 5.5 point favorite against anyone. The Eagles lost a game they should have never lost - yet somehow did- to the Dolphins. I don't know what Eagles team I am getting week in and week out. They started off hot this past week, leading 16-3 in the first quarter, losing 20-19.
I don't know what to make of the Bucs either, but I have a feeling Jameis Winston is starting to feel it. Each week he gains confidence, and surprisingly hasn't been completely reckless. He hadn't thrown a pick in his previous four games, before throwing two on Sunday. Doug Martin has look really good, and is fifth in the league in rushing. The Eagles given up 111 rush yards per game. I see Sanchez doing something stupid and then everyone calling for Kelly's head when they lose.
