Fantasy football experts Bill Dubiel and Tom Bellucco spend much of their time debating fantasy football, and decided to let the RotoBaller world in on some of the discussion. Inspired by the "Board Bets" concept from ESPN's Fantasy Focus Football Podcast, below are six topics that they disagree on, presented with their opinions and justifications.

These topics will be revisited at the end of the season to see which analyst knew what they were talking about. Tweet at Bill (@Roto_Dubs) and Tom (@BellRoto) to let them know what you think, and watch for the release of their new weekly podcast coming in September!

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Will Larry Fitzgerald Finish As A Top-20 Wide Receiver in 2015?

Bill (Yes):

The last time Carson Palmer played a full season with the Cardinals (2013), Larry Fitzgerald had one of the best years of his career, tallying 954 receiving yards and a whopping ten touchdowns on the back of 18 (!) end zone targets. That was in his age-30 season, proving Palmer had no reservations about heavily utilizing the veteran. I expect him to return to this tendency in 2015, as Fitzgerald is still as much of a red zone threat as he always has been.

In the off-season, the Cardinals signed Fitz to a two-year, $22 million guaranteed contract, proving that they are committed to utilizing him. He’s still the number one receiver in a group that should benefit from a much-improved passing game versus the hot garbage that was under center in 2014. A double-digit touchdown total is well within reach for Fitzgerald, and I think he’ll tack on enough catches and yardage to put him inside the top 20 wide receivers one last time.

Tom (No):

It’s highly likely that Larry Fitzgerald will regress towards the stud receiver he once was, especially if Carson Palmer can stay healthy, but there is no room for him inside the top 20 group of wide receivers. Fitz caught just two touchdowns in the six games that Palmer was at the helm in 2014. It’s certainly noted that those were the only two touchdowns he scored all year, but that’s still not enough production when projected over a full season (about five TDs for 16 games).

While I do expect Fitzgerald to rack up far more catches in the middle of the field and possibly in the red zone, I think an impending breakout year from John Brown and the potential for Michael Floyd to find himself again lowers the “number one” receiver’s ceiling. I love the idea of targeting Fitzgerald in the middle/later rounds of drafts if he falls far enough, but I don’t see a scenario in which he surpasses names like Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Keenan Allen to jump into the top 20 this year.

 

Will Odell Beckham, Jr. Finish Outside the Top Five at Wide Receiver?

Bill (Yes):

There’s no doubting how talented OBJ is. The numbers he put up from Week 9-on in 2014 are nothing short of miraculous—and that’s the problem. He is due for some regression for several reasons. The first and most obvious one is the presence of Victor Cruz. Eli Manning peppered Beckham, Jr. with targets, particularly in the end zone, where he had 18 balls thrown his way. Cruz may not be the same player he was coming off a particularly nasty injury, but I just don’t see Manning cutting him out of the picture if he’s healthy enough to lace them up every week.

The second reason OBJ is due to regress is the fact that he’ll likely draw much more double-coverage now. He’s one of the league’s best receivers, and now everyone knows it. He’s talented enough where he’ll still make plenty of plays even in double-coverage, but it should be enough to slow him down from last year’s insane yardage and reception paces. He is likely a top-10 wide receiver still, but I’ll take Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, A.J. Green and a healthy Calvin Johnson before I’ll look at OBJ.

Tom (No):

It wouldn’t surprise me if this happened, but I can’t bring myself to put Julio Jones, A.J. Green, or Demaryius Thomas ahead of Odell Beckham. I understand that OBJ has some competition to deal with in Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle this year, and I’m also sure that teams will make him the focal point of their coverages. However, I can’t get away from the fact that it only takes one defensive lapse for this guy to put up enough points to make owners happy on a weekly basis. Two defensive lapses and we’re talking about a monster game.

As you’ll find out later in the article, I’m taking a big leap of faith and putting Alshon Jeffery in my top five receiver group this year. Aside from the fact that Beckham has better hands and the same if not more athleticism than Jones, Green, and Thomas, I would say all are injury prone in some sense (besides Thomas). Thomas’ situation in Denver is more crowded than Beckham’s, and I see Eli Manning throwing the ball more often than Peyton this year. I’m not blind to the possibility of Beckham being leap-frogged by one of the other top receivers, but if I’m a betting man, I’m putting OBJ in my top five receivers for 2015.

 

Will Peyton Manning Finish Outside the Top Five at Quarterback?

Bill (Yes):

Peyton has been an ageless wonder up to this point in his career, but there are far too many signs pointing to regression for me to think he’ll be a top-five quarterback in 2015. He was still absolutely terrific in 2014, and finished as the number four QB overall, but there are several factors that make me wary. I’m not counting his decline at the end of last season, because it was almost certainly due to the quad injury he sustained. I’ll point instead to the emergence of C.J. Anderson and the suddenly solid Denver run game. Anderson was an absolute force down the stretch last season, and with Gary Kubiak behind the clipboard I have to assume he’ll be featured in the offense.

I think this is the year Manning finally fades. Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are all clearly ahead of him in my opinion, and Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and even his brother Eli could all finish ahead of him in 2015.

Tom (No):

Now that I’ve just admitted that Peyton’s number one receiver will finish out of the top five and that Peyton will throw less often than past years, I’m going to make the case for the older Manning brother to crack the top five QBs. Obviously Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are the top two in some order, but after that it's a toss-up in my eyes. We have a group that includes Manning, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton. With those five in the mix, we have two that won’t make the top five cut.

The Kelvin Benjamin injury immediately erases Newton from the discussion. That leaves Brees, Wilson, and Big Ben who all would have to overtake Manning. I could certainly see it happening, but all three have downsides greater than Manning’s. Sure, Peyton lost his star tight end in Julius Thomas. However, Owen Daniels has proved before that he’s no slouch. I’m also probably in the minority when I say that Gary Kubiak’s run-first mindset may not hurt Manning too much. I think one of the smartest QBs in the league will find a way to use that strategy to his advantage. Expect more play action to open up his big-play targets down the field. If Manning can stay healthy, I will take him over Brees (who simply lacks the weapons to put up huge numbers), Wilson (whose running game will surely regress, lowering his fantasy value), and Roethlisberger (who hasn’t shown enough consistency to place himself above one of the best QBs of all time).

 

Will RGIII Be a Top-12 Quarterback In Four-Point Passing TD Leagues?

Tom (Yes):

You want some bold calls? You got ‘em. Everyone in their right mind is staying away from Robert Griffin III in anything less than a two-quarterback league, and rightfully so. However, we’ve seen Griffin’s upside before, and I’m not one to rule out a bounce-back from one of the league’s most-hyped draft picks in the past 10 years.

Griffin’s biggest struggles in the past two years have been the offensive line, injuries, and a change of offense. The offensive line still sucks, and RGIII is still injury-prone (of course he had to go and get a concussion right after I decided to state this claim), but Jay Gruden has a lot to prove this year. The second-year coach for the 'Skins has stood his ground on the fact that Griffin is his guy, and I’m willing to bet he’s spent long hours this off-season drawing up plays that will give his QB the advantage he had in 2012 as a rookie.

I’ve been looking for the QB who will be this year’s Russell Wilson (add enough rushing production on top of the decent passing game to create a must-start player), and Griffin has been in the discussion. In order to crack the top 12 and pass players like Ryan Tannehill, Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Tom Brady, he will need to use his legs much more efficiently than he did in the past two years. If he can renew his connection with Pierre Garcon, collect consistent yards and touchdowns on the ground, and stay on the field all year, Griffin is someone I would love to have as a backup with upside in a four-point passing TD league.

Bill (No):

I don’t doubt that Robert Griffin III will be better than he was last year, mostly because he has nowhere to go but up. I don’t think he’ll be able to run as much as he did in 2012, which is the dimension that would give him a fantasy edge over pocket quarterbacks. I also don’t see how he throws for 30 touchdowns, and even if he rushes for 500 yards I don’t think he’ll find the end zone enough to make him a top-12 quarterback.

It doesn’t help that there are probably 10 quarterbacks who could all fall between QB10 and QB20. Outside of the top two tiers, you could essentially draw straws for position. Assuming that Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, and Peyton Manning are the given 1-4, I would rather have: Brees, Big Ben, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Flacco instead of Griffin (in that order).

 

Will Alshon Jeffrey Finish As a Top-Five Wide Receiver In Standard Leagues, Top-Seven in PPR?

Tom (Yes):

My top three at wide receiver is pretty cemented with Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, and Dez Bryant standing out above the rest. After that, I’ve already made the case for Beckham, and I have a funny feeling that Alshon Jeffery will surprise a lot of people and sneak into that fifth spot in the top five. Because of his nature of being a big-play receiver rather than a possession one, I’m willing to bet he’ll drop a couple of spots in a PPR format. But in standard leagues, Jeffery is my pick to be this year’s Odell Beckham, Jr., alongside Beckham himself.

Before the Kevin White injury news, I was beyond excited to see Jeffery’s role in the Bears offense without Brandon Marshall. Now that White is out for at least a handful of weeks, Jeffery should be a target monster for Jay Cutler. The extra coverage will certainly be thrown in his direction, but run a quick YouTube search of “Alshon Jeffery catch,” and let me know if that still seems like an issue for you. The man catches everything thrown his way no matter who is in front or behind him.

The bulk of this prediction rides on the shoulders of injury potential, Cutler’s tendency to throw the deep ball, and how John Fox affects this offense. However, Jeffery has the size, athleticism, and hands to be one of the best receivers in the NFL, and I’m excited to see him emerge from the shadow of Brandon Marshall to show everyone how dominant he can be.

Bill (No):

I can’t knock Alshon Jeffery skill-wise, because he is a veritable WR1 assuming that he’s healthy. I simply don’t see how he finishes in front of my “Big Seven” at wide receiver. In order, they are Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, and A.J. Green. We’ve already established that I don’t put OBJ in that tier, and I think Jeffery has a similar standing. He will likely finish in the top-15 at wide receiver, but with Kevin White out for a while I’m afraid he’s going to see a lot of extra coverage in the early goings. Eddie Royal is now the de facto number two in that offense, and he doesn’t exactly put the fear of God in opposing secondaries.

 

Will Jimmy Graham Be the Best Tight End In PPR and Standard Leagues?

Tom (Yes):

I know, I know, I’m crazy. Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the league, hands down. But hear me out on this one. Jimmy Graham has an opportunity to prove that his 2013 season was no fluke with a new team and a new quarterback. As a wide receiver in a tight end’s body, Graham will certainly become the best target that Russell Wilson has ever had the opportunity to throw to on an NFL field. I know the Seahawks run the ball more than almost every other offense, but that could have something to do with the fact that they’ve never had a threat like Graham before.

Wilson proved last season that he can throw the ball well whether it’s deep down the sideline, short over the middle, or on the run to an improvised route. Graham is going to benefit from that skill set, and he’s going to be Wilson’s first look on the majority of play-action plays. The Seattle offense is one of the best at scoring in the red zone (minus the last play of the Super Bowl), and Graham will certainly improve that area as well. On top of it all, Pete Carroll is already using the tight end in the slot on occasion to create mismatches on defense.

It’s certainly more likely that Gronk finishes the year on top of the tight end heap, but if for some reason he comes back down to earth (whether it be an injury or Tom Brady’s pending suspension), Jimmy Graham will be right there with an insane amount of touchdowns to take the cake as the top tight end in 2015.

Bill (No):

My argument can be made in one word—Gronk. The Patriots offense runs through Rob Gronkowski, and he’ll either be acting as Tom Brady’s favorite target or Jimmy Garoppolo’s safety blanket, especially in the red zone. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have many more options once they get in close. Marshawn Lynch is poised for another big season, and Russell Wilson is never afraid to run it in himself.

Graham will act as the primary receiver for the Seahawks, but that’s still a run-first offense and I don’t think Graham can supplant Gronk as the number one tight end (assuming he’s healthy). Graham also dealt with injuries through most of last year himself, and while I don’t expect him to continue to ail I think any injury history argument you could make for Gronk you could also make for Graham. He might be the number two tight end, but he won’t be the number one in either format.

 

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