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The Detroit Lions will be nearing a crossroad once the 2015 season gets underway. Between an inconsistent Matthew Stafford, an aging Calvin Johnson and a shakeup in the backfield, the Lions could revert back to the below average team from years past rather than continue to boast an effective offense. Either way, their current draft values are all fair enough to consider them as fantasy options.
Offseason Acquisitions: RB Ameer Abdullah, WR Lance Moore
No Longer on the Roster: RB Reggie Bush
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Quarterback
Matthew Stafford was once regarded as the next quarterback to step up into the upper tier in the fantasy realm. A former second round pick in most formats, Stafford has put up impressive numbers at various points in his career but never truly reached the status of the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. His best year came in 2011 when he threw for 5,038 yards and a whopping 41 touchdowns. Since then however, his numbers have leveled off. Over the last three seasons, Stafford has averaged 4,624 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions per year. Those are solid numbers but the biggest difference between Stafford and the upper echelon of QBs is the number of touchdowns thrown. Stafford’s touchdown total hasn’t come close to that big 40 mark in 2011 so it’s difficult to project him as having massive upside anymore.
Stafford is a serviceable NFL quarterback and a high-end QB2 in a two quarterback league but too many other players have passed him to consider him a reliable starter in a 10 or 12-team league. I’d much take Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, or Cam Newton in the eighth round or so. That being said, if you wait on quarterback in a 12-team league and end up with a trendy sleeper like Ryan Tannehill or Eli Manning, it can’t hurt to take Stafford as your backup, giving yourself two shots at a late round starter.
Wide Receivers
If you’ve ever so much as even watched one Lions game in your lifetime you’re probably familiar with the name “Megatron.” That nickname might very well be the best in all football and is in reference to one Calvin Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson was hindered by injuries throughout last season and couldn’t live up to that moniker. Although he only missed three games, Calvin’s production took a huge dip from what we’re used to. He just barely cracked the 1,000 yard mark with 1,077 but did still manage to reel in eight touchdowns. The more telling aspect of his stats is that he’s missed seven games over the last two years and his production have been on a decline since 2012. Prior to 2012, Johnson’s reception and yard totals had gone up three years in a row before declining in 2013 and 2014. He’s obviously still a tremendously talented receiver and a freak of an athlete but he does possess risk we’re not accustomed to dealing with.
Most rankers have Calvin Johnson ranked in the middle of the top 10 at the position, often trading spots with guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones. A ranking of five or six is appropriate for a 29 year old, banged up Calvin Johnson but I’m not confident that’s where he finishes. I think there are two scenarios that are much more likely than Calvin finishing as a mid-range WR1. The first is that he reverts back to his old self and just goes off in 2015. Like I said, he’s still an amazing talent and 29 is no dinosaur. It wouldn’t shock me if he comes back with a vengeance in an effort to prove his doubters wrong. The alternative scenario is that he continues to regress and finishes as a borderline WR1. Again, 29 isn’t old but the injuries could very well be a sign that his body is already starting to break down. Father time is undefeated, as they say, so it’s not like Calvin Johnson is immune. That being said, if I end up with Calvin as my top receiver I’ll definitely be satisfied while keeping his newfound risk in mind.
The other receiver of note on this team is Golden Tate. Tate signed with the Lions last offseason and put up solid numbers, particularly during Calvin Johnson’s absence. Tate played all 16 games last year and amassed 1,331 yards and four touchdowns on 99 receptions. He’s ranked as a high-end WR3/flex play and should easily live up to those expectations. Besides, if anything were to happen to Calvin Johnson, Tate’s value would skyrocket. They’re by no means the same type of player but this offense does rely heavily on whoever their number one receiver is so Tate does have some upside.
Running Backs
With Reggie Bush no longer on the roster, Joique Bell should have been poised to hoard the majority of the workload in Detroit with Theo Riddick taking on the role of a RB/WR hybrid. Joique Bell was a solid RB2 in all fantasy formats last year, finishing with 860 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Throw in his receiving totals of 322 yards and an extra TD and you have yourself a dependable second running back. His current ranking as a low-end RB2 doesn’t have much to do with his production and is a result of some other factors independent of his playing ability. Surprisingly, Bell will already be 29 by the time the 2015 season starts. He’s deceivingly old for a guy who has only seen NFL action for three seasons since prior to 2012, Bell had only seen the practice field. That should, in essence, cancel out his age. He’s not a “true” 29-year-old running back because he hasn’t been subjected to the normal wear and tear most backs would have experienced by now. The other drawback for Bell’s 2015 fantasy value is the recently drafted Ameer Abdullah.
Theo Riddick received a lot of sleeper hype back at the start of the 2014 season and the Lions coaches have all shown a lot of love for him in their interviews. Although he doesn't project to take carries from Bell or any other back on this roster, he's expected to be used as a slot receiver this year, potentially giving him value even if he doesn't get carries. However, just like Bell, he too will be impacted by the drafting of Ameer Abdullah.
Rookies and Tight Ends
The Lions selected running back Ameer Abdullah out of Nebraska in the second round of the NFL draft. Every report regarding Abdullah thus far has been that the Lions view him as their eventual every-down back. Whether that happens this year or not remains to be seen. The starting gig is still Joique Bell’s to lose but Abdullah will likely be featured in the offense, particularly as we get into the later weeks of the season. If anything, Abdullah is the biggest driving force behind Bell’s fantasy value falling. As far as rookie running backs are concerned, there’s a lot less risk involved with selecting Abdullah as your fourth running back. He belongs in the same class as Duke Johnson, a guy who can easily beat out the veterans currently on the roster but shouldn’t be reached for.
As for Detroit's tight ends, we’re still waiting for the emergence of Eric Ebron to take place. He’s clearly the tight end with the most potential in Detroit when you consider Brandon Pettigrew being virtually invisible last year. The two combined for just 318 yards last year so this is a tight end situation you can ignore barring a breakout from Ebron.
The Lions are by no means a bad offense, they just aren’t as potent as they once were and that’s okay. Stafford can still be a solid bye week fill-in or a starter in a deeper/two-quarterback league but he's not your go-to standard starter anymore. Calvin Johnson does possess risk even with the possibility he returns to the Megatron of old. Lastly, this is a running game that has late RB2 value in Joique Bell with a rookie sleeper lurking to steal his spot in Ameer Abdullah. As much as this offense has regressed, it’s by no means an enemy to fantasy owners.
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