RADIO
Younger players rule the day this week as we look at two rookies and a once hyped pitching prospect. The small sample sizes make determinations more difficult, but that is not going to stop their labeling as either Champs or Chumps. Lets begin.
Maikel Franco (3B, PHI)
The one exception to the preseason notion that the Phillies are universally terrible, Franco has surprised in his rookie campaign with a .294/.337/.535 triple slash line with 10 HR. He has done this with a normal BABIP (.303) and a strong K rate (15.5%) that is justified by his minor league history. He doesn't walk (5% BB rate), but he never really walked in the minors either and he still had success there. It seems as though his minor league game has transitioned perfectly to the Show.
Then you dig a little deeper and discover that his current game surpasses anything in his minor league history. His ISO - a measure of power production - stands at .241, a professional best for Franco if 289 High-A PAs in 2013 are discounted. He has only hit as many as 20 HR in a season once - 31 across two levels in 2013 - and 16 of those were in High-A, generally regarded as the Low Minors. Like college or high school stats, the Low Minors do not have a large enough talent pool to filter out the ordinary entirely. This allows the extraordinary to put up eye-popping numbers, but only a small minority of the extraordinary are extraordinary enough to do so at higher levels. In other words, you need to be extraordinary to occupy the 25th roster spot on a big league team, but that guy is of no interest to fantasy owners. Franco was projected to be more than a 25th man but far less than the star he currently appears to be - extraordinary enough to dominate the Low Minors but not MLB.
Discounting Franco's production at High-A leaves him with a minor league career best HR total of 16 at Triple-A last season, accompanied by a mediocre .257 batting average. That does not scream major league ready or justify his currently elite 23.3% HR/FB rate. When that regresses, the power will dry up as he hits balls on the ground at a high 52.8% clip. Power hitters need more balls in the air, and Franco has yet to prove he can do that. He also sports a below average LD% of 16.9% (average is around 21%), and furthermore posts a BABIP of just .478 on the few liners he does hit. League average is around .690, and that combined with their infrequency leads me to conclude that he is just not very good at line drives, even if the stat is subject to more random noise than most.
Finally, even the positive stats in the opening paragraph are called into question by underlying metrics. While a 15.5% K rate is above average, his 10.1% whiff rate and 33.6% O-Swing% are both slightly below average (9.6% and 30.5%, respectively). That should project to a slightly below average K rate going forward. Likewise, his BABIP is normal despite getting little production out of the line drives that normally prop it up. This is due to an insane .347 BABIP on groundballs, and there is no way Franco has the wheels to sustain that. The Phillies figure to be sellers at the deadline, potentially weakening a lineup that is already hard pressed to provide Franco with R and RBI opportunities. Overall, feel free to ride him as long as he is hot, but from a "rest of the season" perspective he must be called a . . .
Verdict: Chump
Shelby Miller (SP, ATL)
From afterthought to fantasy ace, Miller has impressed this season with a 5-4 record and 2.20 ERA, supported by a still above average 3.18 FIP. His 7.04 K/9 is meh, but represents a significant improvement from last year's 6.25. His 2.81 BB/9 is also meh, but also represents a significant improvement from last year's 3.59. So he is trending in the right direction.
Luck stats appear to dislike Miller's chances at continuing to produce at anything approaching an elite level, but each can be explained and substantiated. His 78.3% strand rate seems high for a pitcher with relatively few punch outs, but his career mark is 78.6% and he never had the Ks to support it. His 5.6% HR/FB seems low, but Turner Field suppresses power and the division is full of pitcher's parks and offenses that lack pop. It is not really skill so much as luck that he disproportionally faces weaker competition, but that figures to remain true. His .249 BABIP seems low, supported by a low 17.9% liner rate. His career mark is a below league average 19.1%, however, so regression should not hurt too much. Furthermore, Atlanta can really field - most notably the vacuum cleaner the Braves call a shortstop.
Miller provides Simmons with plenty of chances, as he has morphed from a flyball pitcher (career 41.8% GB rate) to a groundball one (51% this year). Atlanta has been able to take an offense that led the world in strikeouts and transform it into one that rarely Ks, so John Hart's regime knows how to successfully change a player's approach. Miller's metamorphosis is also explained by radically altered pitch selection. His 4-seam heater is down precipitously, from 61.6% usage last year to 31.8% this. The curve is also down from 19.5% last year to 11% this. These offerings have been replaced by more 2-seamers (was 10.3%, now 36.7%) and cutters (was 5.8%, now 19.2%). Both of the increased pitch types sport above average groundball rates (57.6% and 54.7%, respectively), while those that have fallen into disfavor are weaker in this regard (below 50%).
Pitch F/X data also suggests improvement in Miller's walk rate, as all of his pitches (except the dreadful curve) are strikes at least 55.1% of the time. The curveball is thrown for balls, implying that Miller wants batters to chase it. They do so at a below league average rate, however, and record just a paltry 6% whiff rate when they do. It does not generate grounders, get chased out of the zone, or generate whiffs - Miller should probably just abandon it. Strikeouts do not seem to be in the offing, as the cutter's 12.9% SwStr% is the best in Miller's arsenal. This will prevent Miller from being a true fantasy ace, but he should be a rock solid mid rotation guy that could be available cheap due to a recent rough stretch.
Verdict: Champ
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU)
The latest top prospect to descend from the baseball heavens and part the Red Sea on his journey to Cooperstown, the 20-year-old has impressed this season with a .287/.309/.543 triple slash line in 97 PAs while also contributing five bombs and four swipes. That projects out to a 30/25 season over a full campaign, the kind of numbers fantasy owners salivate over. The speed is real - he has gone 22-for-23 in SB attempts across Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB combined. The power has been more of a surprise, as while he was projected to hit for some power eventually it was not supposed to exceed his speed production at age 20. His current .258 ISO would be a professional best at any level if you discount 133 PAs at Double-A with a ludicrous .447 BABIP.
Extrapolating further is challenging due to an incredibly small sample size. In addition to less than 100 major league PAs, Correa also has just 246 PAs in Double and Triple-A combined. There's some Low Minors data, but it is not terribly predictive. His current 3.1% walk rate is putrid, supported by an elevated 35.9% O-Swing%, yet his minor league rate was consistently in double digits across all levels. One of these is likely a small sample fluke, but which one is difficult to determine. His 20.6% K rate is roughly league average, but elite for a player of this age. While chasing pitches does not help him here either, he compensates with an elite Z-Contact% (91.2%). Overall, his 7.8% SwStr% bodes well for the future.
He appears to have been lucky in his brief major league career, sporting a 23% line drive rate, 20% HR/FB, and .319 overall BABIP. Very few players sustain liner rates that high consistently, so even with little data it seems safe to conclude that Correa won't either. Likewise, 20% is a slugger's HR/FB number, not a 20 year old kid's. Houston does favor power, but the smart money is on regression. A fast player like Correa could sustain a .319 BABIP, but his speed has not helped him attain that figure at all. On grounders, Correa has posted a BABIP of just .188 - the only batted ball type that speed really impacts BABIP on. Correa's liners have been around average (.647), but the number of those figures to decline. On flyballs, Correa boasts an elevated .250 BABIP - especially odd since so many of his well hit flies are going over the fence and not counting towards BABIP. Since flyball BABIP will decline and the liners will decline in quantity, Correa will need to improve his ground game to sustain his current number. He has the speed for it, but using it in that way is a skill and Correa may not have it this early in his development.
So, what to make of him? The fact that he is doing this so young - the first time he legally sips alcohol could well be the champagne to celebrate Houston winning the division - bodes very well for his future. In a keeper league, he's a champ for sure - but you probably knew that before you clicked on this article. In redraft leagues or keeper formats that hold on only to elite early rounders, questions remain. He currently holds a spot in the middle of Houston's batting order, but the Astros have been fickle with that this season. Waiver wire fodder like Preston Tucker and Luis Valbuena has logged significant time hitting third this year, for crying out loud. He knows how to steal a base, but his current walk rate figures to limit his opportunities. His power pace is not supported by any kind of data. His BABIP figures to decline, taking his solid average with it - at least in the short term. All of these problems will be fixed as he fills out his frame, grows accustomed to advanced pitching, and learns to completely utilize his speed - but probably not this year. Therefore, I must call him a . . .
Verdict: Chump
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