Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 10 Lineups

November 13, 2026

Brandon's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 10 of 2026. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

Now that we are entering Week 10 of the fantasy football season, the numbers are telling a clearer story than they did a month ago, and that matters more than most people realize when you’re trying to set a lineup that actually has a chance. Defenses have shown enough of their tendencies that you can spot which ones are genuinely soft against a certain position and which ones just got lucky early, while the players themselves have had enough snaps for the volume trends to settle in. A guy who has seen eight or nine targets a game over the last three weeks will usually keep seeing them unless something specific changes in the offense around him, and the same goes for a back who has been grinding out 18 carries. Missing those details and simply rolling with the highest projected name is how you end up staring at a four-point underperformance while your opponent’s flex put up 22.

Recent production still carries the most weight, but you also have to account for what has shifted around a player. When a team leans heavier on the run, or a backup quarterback takes over and spreads the ball differently, the same matchup that looked fine last week can suddenly turn into a problem. We saw that kind of surprise play out just last week when Kayshon Boutte, who had been averaging under eight points and was barely rostered, exploded for 28.5 in a game most people ignored. Darren Waller turned a quiet stretch into 23 points once the targets finally found him. On the other side, D'Andre Swift went from RB4 overall to 3.1 points against a Bucs front that has been stuffing the run, and Tucker Kraft managed one catch for one yard while the rest of Green Bay’s offense hummed along. Those swings are not random; they line up with the defensive rankings and the way the game script developed.

That is why sorting the true boom and bust candidates becomes the difference between winning and losing by a few points once the sample size is this large. High implied totals like the one in San Francisco at Dallas or Buffalo at the Jets give certain players a real path to outproduce their season averages, while a tough road matchup or a sudden drop in target share can turn a reliable starter into a liability. Paying attention to both the recent usage numbers and the specific defense waiting on the other side is what separates the lineups that hold up from the ones that leave points on the bench. As I do each week, I dive into the numbers and matchups to come away with the players who I deem are primed to boom or bust! Who will it be this week? Let’s find out!

Week 10 Fantasy Football Booms

Aaron Rodgers - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Rodgers has shown he can still put up multi-touchdown games for the Steelers when the volume is there, and the combination of that recent production with a high-scoring potential matchup against the Bengals on Sunday night creates a real path for a bigger outing than the quiet Week 8 line suggested.

Through eight games, he has completed 175 of 288 passes for 1,871 yards and 13 touchdowns against six interceptions, which works out to roughly 234 yards and 1.6 scores per outing while operating at a 60.8 percent completion rate.

Earlier in the year, he posted three separate games with three touchdowns, including a 292-yard, three-score performance against these same Bengals in Week 3 and another three-touchdown day against Indianapolis.

Those higher totals came when he was asked to throw 30 or more times, which contrasts with the lower-volume 13-of-25, 172-yard outing in the win over Cleveland, where the Steelers controlled the game early and limited the need for him to push the ball downfield.

That prior success against Cincinnati, paired with a game total sitting near 49 points and the Steelers' implied total of around 23, gives him a clearer route to the 250-plus-yard and multi-score range if the divisional night game stays competitive.

The Bengals have ranked closer to the middle of the pack against quarterbacks this season (18 FPPG) rather than among the stingiest units, and the previous result already showed Rodgers can find the intermediate and scoring windows when the protection holds.

With the game script likely leaning more pass-heavy as the Steelers could be chasing points against the red-hot Joe Burrow, Rodgers should find himself in a position to play catch-up.

That favors a higher-volume script, a setup that leans toward another outing that finishes in the 20-point range rather than another single-digit night if the opportunities climb back into the mid-30s.

In my rankings, Rodgers will be more in the range of a high-end QB2 in Week 10, but a player who has QB1 upside due to the potential of a high-scoring affair.

Zach Charbonnet - RB, Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders

Charbonnet has looked more like the Seahawks’ preferred early down option in each of his last two appearances, and the combination of that rising involvement with a soft run defense in Las Vegas sets up a realistic chance for a bigger afternoon than the modest season totals suggest.

In the most recent game, he handled 16 carries for 77 yards at 4.8 yards per carry while catching one of two targets for nine yards, which lifted his snap share into the high 50 percent range after sitting closer to the mid-30s the week before.

Across those two outings, he has 22 carries for 100 yards overall at roughly 4.5 yards per attempt. The jump in touches shows the coaching staff is comfortable feeding him the bulk of the between-the-tackles work even with Jadarian Price still mixed in.

That efficiency holds up against a Raiders front that has allowed more than five yards per carry this season and ranked near the bottom of the league in fantasy points surrendered to opposing running backs, often north of 24 points per game to the position.

Those volume trends matter more than the raw season averages right now because the sample is still small after his return, yet the direction is clear, and the matchup amplifies it.

Opportunity share has climbed as the snaps have increased, and the Seahawks have already shown they will lean on him for double-digit carries when the script stays manageable.

The indoor environment removes any weather variables, and a game script that keeps Seattle ahead could easily produce another 14-to-16-carry day with a couple of checkdowns mixed in.

If that workload meets the same 4.5-plus yards per carry he has averaged lately against a defense that has struggled to contain the run, the path to a 70-to-90-yard outing plus a score becomes straightforward rather than a stretch.

With the role still trending upward and the Raiders ranking among the more generous units against backs, Charbonnet profiles as a flex option who can clear the lower projections if the touches stay in the mid-teens.

Fantasy managers should count on him to land in the mid RB2 range for Week 10, making those who have held out on him all this time very happy with the return.

Parker Washington - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Washington has settled into a steady target role for the Jaguars, and the combination of that volume with a soft secondary in Tennessee could allow for a return to high production after some ups-and-downs in recent weeks.

Through eight games, he has hauled in 29 of 55 targets for 493 yards and five touchdowns, which works out to roughly 62 yards and a 17-yard average per catch while holding a target share near 24 percent and an air-yards share closer to 36 percent.

That depth of target sits around 12 yards, and the long scores have shown up regularly, including a 50-yard touchdown against the Ravens last week on two catches and a 124-yard, two-score day against the Eagles earlier in the season.

Snap share has held in the mid-70 percent range for most of the season. He has already logged 10 red-zone touches, which keeps the scoring floor realistic even when the overall pass attempts stay modest.

Tennessee has ranked among the most generous defenses against wide receivers this season, frequently allowing well over 190 receiving yards and close to a touchdown per game to the position while ranking at the bottom of the league in points surrendered to the group (33 FPPG).

That matchup pairs well with Washington’s efficiency on intermediate and deeper routes, where his yards per target has hovered near nine and his ability to create after the catch has produced several explosive plays.

The Jaguars’ implied total sits in the high 20s for this game, which should keep the passing volume at least in the mid-30s and give him a realistic chance at six or seven targets.

When a receiver with a 17-yard average and five scores already on the board faces a defense that has struggled to contain the position, the setup leans toward another 75-plus-yard afternoon with a score rather than another quiet, low-volume day.

With the role locked in and the Titans ranking as the easiest matchup for receivers, Washington profiles as an option who can clear the mid-range projections if the targets hold steady, placing him firmly on the fringe WR1/WR2 line for Week 10.

Eli Raridon - TE, New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (Germany)

Raridon has started to see a more consistent share of the Patriots’ targets as a rookie. The combination of that recent involvement with one of the softer defenses against tight ends in Detroit creates a realistic path for a bigger outing than the season averages suggest.

Through eight games, he has caught 16 of 26 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns. That works out to a 14.1-yard average per catch and a catch rate near 61 percent while operating with an average depth of target in the mid-to-high single digits.

Over the last three games, his target share has climbed into the mid-teens after sitting closer to 10 percent earlier. He has already posted multiple 50-yard days, including three catches for 52 yards against Green Bay and a 56-yard touchdown outing on four targets against Chicago.

Those numbers show he can produce when the opportunities arrive. The positive EPA per target so far indicates the routes are generating value even in a limited sample.

Detroit has ranked near the bottom of the league against tight ends this season, frequently allowing more than 20 fantasy points per game to the position and ranking as the most generous unit in yards and scores surrendered to the group.

That matchup lines up with a high game total around 51.5 points and a Patriots implied total near 24.5, which should keep the overall pass volume elevated enough for Raridon to see another four-to-six-target day if the script stays competitive.

His efficiency on intermediate routes and ability to turn those targets into double-digit yards per catch give him a clearer route to 40-plus yards and a score than the lower season totals would imply.

With the role trending upward and the Lions ranking among the softest remaining defenses for the position, Raridon profiles as a streaming option who can easily clear projections if the targets hold in the mid-range.

For the fantasy managers who are not currently holding onto one of the top six at the position, you’re likely streaming each week, making Raridon an appealing name for Week 10.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Busts

Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

Prescott has put up solid overall numbers through nine games, but the combination of recent volume swings and a tougher secondary in San Francisco raises the chance that this week lands closer to a floor outcome than another high-end one.

He has completed 218 of 336 passes for 2,381 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, which works out to roughly 265 yards per game at 7.1 yards per attempt and a 64.9 percent completion rate while posting a positive EPA per dropback near 0.18.

Those season totals look fine on paper, yet the last few outings have shown more variance, including a 195-yard day against Arizona after a three-touchdown performance against Philadelphia and a 335-yard effort against the Colts.

Rushing production has stayed modest at 25 carries for 102 yards and one score, which limits the dual-threat floor when the pass attempts stay in the low-to-mid 30s.

San Francisco has ranked among the more difficult matchups for opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking in the lower tier in points and yards allowed to the position (15 FPPG).

That defense pairs with a game that projects as more controlled than a pure shootout, which could keep Dallas from needing 40-plus pass attempts if the script favors the run or stays competitive without a big deficit.

Prescott’s recent efficiency has been solid when the volume is there, but the drop in yards against Arizona and the lower attempt totals in a couple of other wins show he can finish in the 200-yard range with one or two scores when the opportunities tighten.

Facing a unit that has limited explosive plays more effectively than softer secondaries, the path to another 300-yard, multi-touchdown afternoon looks narrower than the season averages would suggest.

With the matchup trending tougher and the recent sample showing more inconsistency in volume, Prescott profiles as a higher-floor but lower-ceiling option who could finish closer to the mid-teens in fantasy points if the 49ers force a more methodical day.

Add in the historical context that shows his struggles against the 49ers defense over the last four games (five touchdowns vs. eight interceptions), and there are possibilities that Prescott finishes outside the top 12 in Week 10.

Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown has handled a solid share of the Bengals' backfield work through eight games, but the drop in efficiency and a tougher run defense in Pittsburgh raise the chance that this week lands closer to a floor outcome than another mid-range one.

He has rushed 103 times for 397 yards at just 3.9 yards per carry with only one touchdown while adding 39 receptions for 207 yards on 45 targets. That keeps the PPR average near 12.7 points but also shows the scoring has dried up since Week 1.

Over the last three games, his carry share has slipped toward the low 50 percent range after sitting near 60 percent earlier. He has posted multiple sub-40-yard rushing days while seeing only three red-zone touches in that stretch.

The receiving volume has helped in spots, including eight catches for 46 yards against the Titans. Yet, the overall efficiency remains modest, and the lack of scores has capped the upside even when the total touches reach the mid-teens.

Pittsburgh has ranked among the stronger units against opposing running backs this season, sitting in the lower tier in fantasy points allowed to the position (18 FPPG) while allowing fewer explosive runs and holding the Bengals to a lower output in their earlier meeting.

That matchup pairs with a game that projects as lower-scoring rather than a pure shootout, which could limit the total opportunities if the script stays close.

Brown’s recent YPC has hovered well below four yards, and the reduced red-zone involvement over the last few weeks shows the scoring chances have not arrived at the same rate as they have in the past.

Facing a defense that has limited the position more effectively than softer fronts, the path to another 60-plus-yard day with a score looks narrower than the season volume would suggest.

With the efficiency trending lower and the Steelers ranking as one of the tougher matchups for backs, Brown profiles as a volume option who could finish closer to single-digit fantasy points if the carries stay in the low double digits and the red-zone looks stay scarce.

A player who many fantasy managers are waiting for the breakout to happen, Brown likely struggles again in Week 10, causing the drumbeat to cut bait on him to become louder.

Drake London - WR, Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs

London has maintained a strong target share through nine games, but the near-total lack of touchdowns and a difficult secondary in Kansas City raise the chance that this week finishes closer to a volume-only outing than a true boom.

He has caught 44 of 67 targets for 692 yards at a 15.7-yard average with just one score, which keeps the season average near 77 yards per game. The scoring has stayed limited despite an average depth of target around 9.8 yards and a high share of the team’s air yards.

Over the last three games, the target share has held near 24 percent. Yet, the results have been uneven, including five catches for 68 yards against the Bengals after a one-catch, eight-yard day against Tampa Bay (the monsoon game) and a 66-yard (one-touchdown) outing against San Francisco.

The red-zone involvement has stayed light at only four touches all season with zero goal-to-go looks, which has capped the weekly ceiling even when the raw volume reaches the high single digits.

Kansas City has ranked among the more difficult matchups for opposing wide receivers this season, sitting near the top of the league in limiting yards and points allowed to the position (22 FPPG) while generating pressure and limiting explosive plays.

This is the type of game atmosphere in which the scoring could remain lower as both teams look to avoid the risky plays that could cost them, limiting those excess targets for London.

His efficiency has been solid when the targets arrive, but the recent dip (11 targets total in the previous two games) and the single score on the year show he can finish in the 50-to-70-yard range without a touchdown when the coverage tightens.

Facing a unit that has limited the position more effectively than softer secondaries, the path to another 100-yard day with a score looks narrower than the season target numbers would suggest.

With scoring still scarce and the Chiefs ranking as one of the tougher remaining defenses for wideouts, London profiles as a volume option who could land closer to the low double digits in fantasy points unless he were to find the end zone.

A player who is routinely ranked as a no-doubt WR1, London finds himself outside the top 12 in Week 10 in what could be a very low-floor type of game.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Kincaid has posted respectable season totals through eight games, but the frequent low-volume weeks and modest target share raise the chance that this outing against the Jets finishes closer to a floor result than another efficient one.

He has caught 30 of 38 targets for 429 yards at a 14.3-yard average with just two touchdowns, which keeps the average near 53 yards per game while also showing he has been held to four receptions or fewer in five of those eight contests.

The target share has settled around 16 percent on the year, and the average depth of target near 9.4 yards has not translated into consistent explosive plays or red-zone volume beyond the six touches he has seen inside the 20.

In Week 9, he was limited to three catches for 28 yards after being asked to stay in more often to help against a heavy blitz following an 86-yard (one touchdown) game against the Ravens that remains one of the clearer outliers on the slate.

The Jets have allowed roughly the league average in fantasy points to tight ends this season (14 FPPG), ranking near the middle of the pack rather than among the softer units that have surrendered big days to the position.

That neutral-to-average matchup pairs with a Bills offense that has already shown it can lean on other options when the script does not specifically call for Kincaid in the pattern. That has produced multiple games with only one or two catches and single-digit yardage.

His catch rate has been solid when the targets arrive, yet the recent uptick in blocking duties and the absence of a third score show the weekly floor can drop quickly if the volume stays in the mid-single digits.

Facing a defense that has not been especially generous to the position beyond a couple of higher-output games, the path to another 70-plus-yard day with a touchdown looks out of the realm of possibility.

With the target share remaining modest and the Jets ranking as a middle-of-the-road matchup for tight ends, Kincaid profiles as a volume-dependent option who could finish closer to the low double digits in fantasy points if the red-zone looks stay limited and the offense continues to spread the ball.

Outside of the tease of TE1 production we saw in Week 8 and the fiery start to his season in the first two games, Kincaid has once again found himself drawing the ire of fantasy managers, who constantly wish for more.

Thank you all for reading my Booms/Busts article! Obviously, I never get every call right, but I hope I provided you with some sound advice/options that helped get your team set up to win this week. Good luck, and let's stack some wins!

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