Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 4 Lineups (2026)

October 2, 2026

Brandon's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 4 of 2026. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

Week 4 is the first week the numbers actually start to matter. Three games of snaps, target shares, and defensive tape are on the board, and the slate is split between games built to score and games built to grind. Jaguars-Bengals sits at 51.5 total, the highest on the board, with Lions-Panthers right behind at 50.5 and Patriots-Bills around 48.5. Those are the environments where a secondary target can clear 20 points without being the best player on the field. Then there is the other side of the card. Steelers-Browns and Dolphins-Vikings are both priced near 38.5, and Baltimore is laying 11.5 points to a Titans team that has scored 12.3 points a game and is still looking for its first win. A double-digit spread on a low total is how a “safe” starter loses his carries by the third quarter.

That split is why boom and bust reads matter more now than they did in September. Early rankings were still leaning on last year’s roles and a couple of small samples. Three weeks is enough to see who is actually getting the ball, who is losing routes, and which defenses are giving up the same kind of week every Sunday. A running back can still be an RB1 on the consensus board and finish with eight carries if his team is down three scores at halftime. A wide receiver in a 50-point game can smash without being the alpha. The optimal lineup is the one that matches real usage to this week’s implied totals, positional points allowed, and likely scripts, not the one that copies the rest-of-season ranks.

Get those reads right, and the margin shows up in the standings. Miss them, and you watch a streaming flex drop 22 while the name you trusted puts up six. This is also the last full 16-game week before byes start, so every starter you have on the roster is available, and every mistake is yours. Week 4 is when those lineup calls stop being noise and start deciding wins. The point of tracking boom-and-bust players is simple: build the highest realistic ceiling without walking into a floor you cannot afford. Ahead, I will dig into the data to find the players I am expecting to have win-deciding weeks if they hit in your lineups, and point out the trusted names that could be dragging down your projected total live in-game. Who are this week’s booms and busts? Let’s find out!

Week 4 Fantasy Football Booms

Kyler Murray - QB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins

Murray has not looked like a fantasy starter yet, and that is exactly why the Week 4 spot is interesting.

He left the Packers game in the first half with a concussion after going 3-of-5 for 18 yards and an interception, then sat out Week 2.

His first full game back, at Tampa Bay, was 15-of-29 for 168 yards, a touchdown, and another pick, plus 17 rushing yards on two carries.

That finished around QB25. The context matters more than the box score. Justin Jefferson left that game early, and Murray still found Jordan Addison for a 41-yard score.

Jefferson avoided a major ankle injury and could possibly return this week (watch the injury reports), which puts Murray’s best target on the field for the first time in a full game.

Miami is the get-right matchup.

Through three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 693 passing yards and eight touchdown passes, with opponents completing 80 percent of their throws at a 121 passer rating.

That ranks among the more generous quarterback defenses in the league, around eighth or ninth in fantasy points allowed to the position.

Minnesota is 3-0, at home, and laying double digits, so the script should not force Murray into a pure chase.

Consensus still has him around QB13 with a mid-to-high teens projection, which is the gap a boom lives in.

If Jefferson is out there and Murray uses his legs the way he has in past top-five seasons, a leaky secondary and a double-digit lead are how a rusty QB1 week shows up.

Woody Marks - RB, Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

Marks is not winning the backfield, and that is fine for a boom week.

He has 22 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, plus seven catches on eight targets for 31 yards. Week 2 was the tell: eight yards on the ground, then five grabs for 27 yards on six targets.

Week 3 was five carries for 15 and a one-yard score, even on only 20 snaps behind David Montgomery.

The yards per carry are ugly at 3.0, and Houston is 0-3 while sitting 30th in rushing yards per game at 84.7.

The passing work is how he stays involved when the script tilts, and that is the piece Dallas has already been giving away.

The Cowboys have allowed 343 rushing yards and four touchdowns to running backs, at 4.23 yards per carry, and the receiving line is just as useful.

Cam Skattebo went 18 for 81 and a score in Week 1; Devin Singletary added a receiving touchdown in the same game; Rachaad White caught six passes for 40 yards in Week 2, and Derrick Henry closed it with 26 carries, 89 yards, and two scores.

That is volume, a checkdown, and the goal line, which is the whole Marks package in a split.

One matchup model has Dallas 31st against the run.

This game is indoors at NRG with a total near 48, and Houston is a slight home favorite, so it should not turn into a pure chase.

Marks is sitting around RB35 on the weekly boards.

That rank is the floor of a committee back.

The ceiling is the receiving role against a defense that has already handed the position both the ball and the end zone.

This makes Marks an intriguing name to plug in at your Flex position in a week where some managers may be scrambling for help at RB due to injuries.

Jameson Williams - WR, Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Williams has not scored, and the target share has shrunk, which is why the rank is sitting in the WR3 range.

He has 10 catches on 17 targets for 127 yards and zero touchdowns, about 42 yards a game.

Week 1 was four grabs for 45 on nine targets.

Week 2 was two for 33 on four.

Week 3 was four for 49 on four, a 12.5 percent share, while Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown each saw eight looks.

The volume is the problem. The profile is not.

He is still averaging 71.7 air yards a game, 28.6 percent of Detroit’s air yards, at a 12.6 average depth of target.

In the opener, he led the team with 128 air yards and ran a route on 37 of 40 dropbacks.

Carolina is the environment that can turn four targets into a spike week.

Lions-Panthers is one of the two highest totals on the board, near 50.5, and Detroit is a short favorite with an implied team total around 27.

The Panthers have already given up 213 receiving yards and two scores to wideouts against Chicago, then 231 yards in Atlanta.

That is not a shutdown secondary on the chunk plays, even if the touchdown rate has been uneven.

Williams closed last year with 1,117 yards and seven scores, and the market still has him around plus-200 to find the end zone.

A depressed share in a 50-point game, with the deep air yards still attached to his name, is how a quiet WR3 posts the boom week.

Keep in mind that the Panthers are also dealing with injuries to their secondary, and you have all the makings for a game in which Williams can break loose for a score.

Plug him in as your WR3 for the week and don’t look back!

Darren Waller - TE, Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions

Waller is not a full-time tight end, and the production has still shown up.

He has 10 catches on 13 targets for 112 yards and two touchdowns, 11.2 yards per catch.

Week 1 was two for 28, with a short score wiped out by offensive pass interference.

Week 2 was three for 33 and both of those touchdowns in the blowout at Atlanta.

Week 3 was the role change: five catches for 51 yards on a season-high eight targets, with Xavier Legette out on a knee and Jalen Coker joining him on a quad.

Carolina’s tight ends combined for 11 catches and 128 yards in that game. He was targeted on 27.6 percent of his routes.

That is a red-zone piece turning into a real target, not a fluke score.

Detroit is the matchup that makes the role matter.

The Lions have allowed 351 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends, 29 catches at 12.1 yards a pop, the most fantasy points to the position in the league at about 28 to 33 a game.

Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant both scored in Week 1, Dalton Kincaid went 7-for-95 and a score in Week 2, and the Jets’ tight ends piled up 13 catches, 164 yards, and two scores last week.

Carolina is fifth in points scored and first in passing yards, and this Sunday night game sits near a 50.5 total.

With Coker being a wild card to be available for the game, it only increases the potential for Waller.

If the eight-target week travels into a defense that has already handed the position six scores, Waller is a boom, not a touchdown dart.

A player that I would stream for Week 4 over the likes of your typical starters like Colston Loveland or Jake Ferguson.

Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts

Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks

Herbert has the name, and three weeks of results say the name is not scoring.

He is 52-of-88 for 627 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions, a 59.1 percent completion rate, and a 73.4 passer rating.

That is 209 yards a game, and he has not cleared 14 fantasy points in any of them.

Week 1 was 17-of-27 for 209, a score, and a pick.

Week 2 was 15-of-27 for 192 with two interceptions.

Week 3 in Buffalo was 20-of-34 for 226, a shovel-pass touchdown, and another pick.

He has been sacked eight times; the Chargers are 0-3, and they are 29th in points scored at 14.7 a game.

Among qualified quarterbacks, he is bottom-eight in completion rate, success rate, and EPA per dropback.

The arm is still there. The offense is not producing.

Seattle is the wrong place to wait for it to click.

The Seahawks are laying about seven at home in a game priced near 42.5, and Los Angeles’ implied total sits around 18, only ahead of the Dolphins (14) on the slate.

Seattle has allowed about 12 to 14 fantasy points a game to the position, one of the stingiest marks in the league, and one matchup model has them first in pass defense.

The market has Herbert’s passing yards near 196, with a projection of roughly 195 yards, one touchdown, and an interception.

Consensus already has him around QB23 at 14.5 points.

A trailing script can add attempts, but attempts into that secondary, with this protection and this scoring rate, are how a bust week gets worse, not better.

Sit him and stream a QB who is in a better environment for fantasy production.

Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

Barkley still gets drafted like the engine of this offense, and three weeks say the engine is idling.

He has 34 carries for 174 yards and zero touchdowns, plus three catches on six targets for six yards.

That is 180 yards from scrimmage, and no scores, about seven PPR points a game.

Week 1 was 15 for 83.

Week 2, after a shoulder stinger, was four carries for nine yards on 16 percent of the snaps.

Week 3 in Chicago was the better version, 15 for 82 at 5.5 a carry, and it still came with a minus-2 catch in a 27-7 loss.

The efficiency is fine. The receiving work is gone, the touchdowns are gone, and the snap share is 53 percent.

Philadelphia is 23rd in points scored at 18.3 a game, which is currently capping the ceiling for Barkley.

The Rams are not the spot that fixes the missing score.

They have allowed 241 rushing yards at 3.83 per carry and zero touchdowns to running backs, about 11 standard points a game to the position.

Philadelphia is a three-point home underdog in a 43.5 total, with an implied team total around 20, so this is not a clock-killing script if the game gets away.

Jalen Hurts is still the goal-line option, and the market has Barkley near 76.5 rushing yards.

Consensus still has him around RB15 at 12 points.

That rank is the name. The bust is a back with no touchdowns, no receiving floor, and a defense that has not given the position a score, in a game that may not hand him the volume either.

You’ll obviously be starting Barkley this week because of where you drafted him, but playing names like Chuba Hubbard or Aaron Jones could prove to be the right call after the games have ended in Week 4.

Emeka Egbuka - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

Egbuka is still getting targets, and the points are not following.

He has 13 catches on 20 targets for 141 yards and one touchdown, 10.8 yards per catch.

Week 1 was five for 63, and every target came before halftime.

Week 2 was three for 16 and a five-yard score.

Week 3 was the high-water mark, five for 62 on nine looks, and it still finished as a WR38 week in a 23-16 loss.

Those three games have landed WR29, WR33, and WR38. Tampa Bay is 0-3.

The volume is real. The offense attached to it is not.

Green Bay is the part that closes the door.

Baker Mayfield is out for multiple weeks, so the throws are coming from undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, and the game is priced at 38.5 with the Packers laying about three and a half.

That is one of the lowest totals on the board.

Green Bay has allowed 467 yards and three scores to wideouts, a middle-of-the-pack mark, not a soft one.

The market has Egbuka near 37 receiving yards and plus-300 to score.

A nine-target game that produced 62 yards came with Mayfield.

Take the quarterback out, drop the total under 40, and the same target share is how a bust week gets written.

Sit him until the quarterback situation looks like an offense again.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Kincaid has the season line of a tight end you cannot sit, and the last game says otherwise.

He has 14 catches on 17 targets for 263 yards and one score, 18.8 a grab, which leads the position in yards.

Week 1 was five for 130.

Week 2 was seven for 95 and a 16-yard touchdown on eight targets.

Week 3 was the tell: two catches for 38 yards on three targets, a lost fumble, and a drop after a shot over the middle.

He still ran a route on 67.7 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Dawson Knox ran a similar number.

The snaps did not leave. The targets did.

New England is the wrong defense to assume those targets come back.

The Patriots have allowed 10 catches, 84 yards, and zero touchdowns to tight ends, about six fantasy points a game, the fewest in the league.

Their linebackers have a 33.3 passer rating against.

Buffalo is 3-0 and laying about six and a half in a 48.5 game, so the script can lean on James Cook once the lead shows up.

Kincaid has 25 career catches and 319 yards against this team, and zero scores.

Consensus still has him around TE4 with a projection near 11 and a market line of 4.5 catches and 52.5 yards.

That rank is the first two weeks. The bust is a three-target game traveling into the stingiest tight end defense on the board.

It’s hard to sit him based on the hot start, but the numbers do suggest looking elsewhere for your TE1 this week.

Thank you all for reading my Booms/Busts article! Obviously, I never get every call right, but I hope I provided you with some sound advice/options that helped get your team set up to win this week. Good luck, and let's stack some wins!

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