Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Deshaun Watson, Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin, more

September 30, 2026

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em lineups advice for the Steelers vs. Browns Thursday game in Week 4 (2026). NFL matchups analysis and TNF starts/sits for Week 3.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are what Thursday Night Football used to be! Low-scoring and unattractive. Both teams enter the game at 2-1 after dramatic Week 3 victories and, Thursday's winner will get an early advantage in the AFC North race, where all teams currently stand 2-1.

Don't expect another offensive explosion like Pittsburgh's game against Cincinnati, however. The Steelers are 2.5-point road favorites, and the 38.5-point over/under suggests we could be in for a typical AFC North defensive battle. There are still some intriguing fantasy decisions in this matchup, especially with Jaylen Warren coming off his strongest game of the season.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all season, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this Week 4 matchup in Cleveland. You can also check out our main Week 4 rankings for all other players. Good luck in Week 4, RotoBallers!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Thursday, October 1, 8:15 p.m. ET

Notable Injuries:

• Rico Dowdle (RB, PIT) - Questionable/Unlikely to play - Toe

Steelers vs. Browns Matchup Breakdown

Pittsburgh's offense finally woke up in Week 3, putting up more than 400 total yards against Cincinnati. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, while Jaylen Warren accounted for 176 scrimmage yards with Rico Dowdle sidelined. However, facing Cleveland's defense on the road will be a considerably different challenge than facing the Bengals at home.

🅦🅔🅔🅚 ❹ pic.twitter.com/HejhmIEIse

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 29, 2026

Cleveland has won two straight games, and it's because of an unlikely source. Deshaun Watson threw for just 144 yards against Carolina, although his two touchdown passes to Harold Fannin Jr. helped the Browns escape with a victory. Watson also led them to a victory in Week 2. Quinshon Judkins is also coming off his best rushing performance of the season.

The biggest question for fantasy managers is whether either offense can put up enough points to support multiple fantasy starters. Pittsburgh's passing game has been spreading opportunities among several receivers and tight ends, while Cleveland has three young receiving options. In a game with such a low projected point total, fantasy points might be hard to come by.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)

Warren dominated the Bengals in Week 3, rushing 17 times for 127 yards and catching three passes for another 49 yards. With Rico Dowdle sidelined, Warren played 90% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps, while every other Steelers running back combined for just six snaps. If Dowdle is out again, Warren will be in RB1 territory based on volume alone. He's a must-start even in a pretty difficult matchup.

Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE)

Finally, the Fannin we were waiting for! After a relatively quiet first two weeks, Fannin exploded for seven catches, 51 yards, and two touchdowns against Carolina, including the game-winning score. His nine targets represented a massive 30% target share, and he played 86% of Cleveland's offensive snaps. Watson trusts him in critical situations, and that kind of involvement should make Fannin an every-week TE1.

Possible Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE)

Watson followed his impressive Week 2 performance with a less productive outing against Carolina, completing just 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, but he did throw two touchdowns. The Browns have an exciting group of young pass-catchers, and Watson's continued rushing ability provides fantasy upside.

However, Pittsburgh's defense and the low projected point total make him more of a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 than a player fantasy managers should automatically start in single-quarterback leagues. He is on the borderline as a fantasy starter this week, so if you have a top-ten option, they should take priority.

Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE)

Quinshon Judkins finally showed something positive against Carolina, rushing 18 times for 70 yards after managing just 54 rushing yards total over his first two games. He also caught two passes for nine yards, giving him at least two receptions in every game this season. The workload is what we want, but Judkins is still averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and hasn't scored a touchdown. He's a volume-based RB2/Flex against Pittsburgh's defense.

RB most touches without a 20+ yard gain this season:

1. Chase Brown (59)
2. Omarion Hampton (52)
T3. Quinshon Judkins and Jeremiyah Love (51)
5. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (50)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 29, 2026

Denzel Boston (WR, CLE)

Denzel Boston caught two passes for 41 yards in Week 3 and added a two-point conversion, so it was his first down game. The rookie has 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns through three games, and he played more than 90% of Cleveland's offensive snaps in Week 3. The Browns' inconsistent passing offense makes him a risky WR3 or Flex against Pittsburgh.

KC Concepcion (WR, CLE)

Concepcion had a miserable Week 3, catching just two of nine targets for nine yards. However, those nine targets tied Fannin for the team lead, and Concepcion ran a team-high 34 routes. The opportunities are clearly there (nine targets were a season-high), and a breakout performance could be coming if Watson and Concepcion can get on the same page.

DK Metcalf (WR, PIT)

DK Metcalf found the end zone against Cincinnati, but his three catches for 31 yards were as bad as the other two weeks of the season. He has just 12 receptions for 98 yards through three games despite receiving 24 targets. He's still worth starting as a WR2/3 because of targets and target share, although another disappointing performance might make us rethink that in the weeks ahead.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT)

Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati. However, he had just 408 passing yards and one touchdown over his first two games combined. Cleveland is a tough defensive challenge, and I don't get the impression there will be a lot of points with a 38.5 total. Expect a lot of Jaylen Warren.

Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson (WR, PIT)

Pittman returned to the lineup against Cincinnati after missing Week 2, but he managed just two catches for 16 yards on five targets. He now has five receptions for 74 yards through his first two games with Pittsburgh. Wilson has caught just 11 passes through three games, and Michael Pittman's return creates additional competition for playing time and targets. Wilson is a roll of the dice, but he does have at least six targets in each game.

Roman Wilson Keeps Earning Targets Despite Reduced Role https://t.co/ngaRG2Cg6l

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 29, 2026

Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington (TEs, PIT)

The Steelers' tight end rotation is very frustrating for fantasy managers. Freiermuth caught two passes for 30 yards against Cincinnati, while Washington turned four targets into three catches for 67 yards. However, 47 of Washington's yards came on one bulldozing reception. With both competing for targets in a low-scoring matchup, I'd prefer to avoid this position entirely.

Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE)

Jerry Jeudy is becoming an afterthought in Cleveland's passing offense. He received just one target in Week 2, and both Boston and Concepcion played more snaps than him against Carolina in Week 3. He can safely be dropped in all formats, and I wouldn't be surprised if a trade happens this year with Jeudy.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: PIT -2.5
Over/Under: 38.5

Pittsburgh has the offensive experience to escape Cleveland with a victory, but covering 2.5 points on the road is going to be tough in a low-scoring affair. Warren's workload gives Pittsburgh a decent way to control the game, so I think the Steelers can come out ahead by a field goal. Their defense could also make life miserable for Deshaun Watson.

The 38.5-point total is tied for the lowest of the Week 4 slate, and there's reason to expect a relatively low-scoring game. Pittsburgh's offensive explosion against Cincinnati looks more like an exception than the rule after the Steelers managed just three points against New England in Week 2. Cleveland has also held its last two opponents to 19 and 18 points.

Pittsburgh's defense also has an opportunity to rebound after allowing 27 points against Cincinnati. With two familiar division rivals playing on a short week, I'm expecting a physical contest with relatively few explosive plays. Even a 20-17 Pittsburgh victory would keep this game below the total.

The Pick: PIT -2.5, UNDER 38.5

2026 Overall Record:
Spread (1-2), Over/Under (2-1)

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