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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kind of like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was Kansas City, so thankfully we all survived if the Chiefs were selected. We will look to go 2-for-2 on targets this week!
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Win Probabilities For Week 4
Before jumping into the picks for Week 4, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| BAL | -750 | 88.24% | 84.11% |
| MIN | -650 | 86.67% | 82.66% |
| SEA | -350 | 77.78% | 74.47% |
| BUF | -300 | 75.00% | 72.41% |
| KC | -220 | 68.75% | 65.81% |
| IND | -195 | 66.10% | 63.66% |
| GB | -195 | 66.10% | 63.66% |
| DET | -190 | 65.52% | 63.01% |
| CHI | -175 | 63.64% | 60.92% |
| LAR | -165 | 62.26% | 59.91% |
| PIT | -145 | 59.18% | 57.11% |
| NO | -145 | 59.18% | 57.11% |
| SF | -145 | 59.18% | 56.56% |
| CIN | -140 | 58.33% | 56.20% |
| HOU | -140 | 58.33% | 56.20% |
| ARI | -125 | 55.56% | 53.25% |
| NYG | 105 | 48.78% | 46.75% |
| JAX | 120 | 45.45% | 43.80% |
| DAL | 120 | 45.45% | 43.80% |
| DEN | 120 | 45.45% | 43.44% |
| CLE | 125 | 44.44% | 42.89% |
| ATL | 125 | 44.44% | 42.89% |
| PHI | 140 | 41.67% | 40.09% |
| NYJ | 145 | 40.82% | 39.08% |
| CAR | 160 | 38.46% | 36.99% |
| WAS | 165 | 37.74% | 36.34% |
| TB | 165 | 37.74% | 36.34% |
| LV | 180 | 35.71% | 34.19% |
| NE | 250 | 28.57% | 27.59% |
| LAC | 275 | 26.67% | 25.53% |
| MIA | 450 | 18.18% | 17.34% |
| TEN | 500 | 16.67% | 15.89% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 4.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 4
Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins
You will likely see a recurring theme in these articles while I am filling in, and that theme is going to be picking against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are going to have a very long season, and that season just got a lot longer, as De'Von Achane has suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have started the season 3-0 and will be coming fresh off a win at Tampa Bay. They also got starting quarterback Kyler Murray back last week, so their offense should start to pick up. This is good news, as their current offense ranks last in the league, averaging just 238 total yards per game.
That being said, Minnesota should be able to win this game on the strength of its defense. Overall, the Vikings rank first in the league with 14 sacks and first in the league with four interceptions. They are also allowing just 85.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks near the top of the league.
Minnesota should be able to handle the Dolphins at home in this spot.
Kyler Murray with a rocket to Jordan Addison for the TD 🚀@MINvsTB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/VaM63tFsfW— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Last week, we had Seattle in the fade column against the Washington Commanders. Thankfully, we did because it ended up going down 33-31 at the hands of Marcus Mariota and company. I do like it this week against a free-falling Los Angeles Chargers squad, however.
Los Angeles is now 0-3 and coming off a loss at Buffalo, 24-16. The Chargers have now lost to the Arizona Cardinals, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Bills. They are now allowing an average of nearly 350 total yards of offense per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Meanwhile, their offense is averaging just 309 yards of total offense, which also ranks in the bottom half of the league. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank in the top half of the league on offense by averaging nearly 368 total yards per game, and on defense by allowing an average of just 229 total yards per game.
Seattle should be able to rebound after a tough loss at Washington, especially with Sam Darnold coming back for his second start after the Week 1 injury.
Also Consider Using
- Detroit (at CAR)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 4
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
While I think the Ravens should be able to handle the Tennessee Titans, I am not willing to risk my entry on them this week. The main concern I have with Baltimore is the recent travel schedule.
The Ravens just played in a high-scoring shootout against the Dallas Cowboys down in Brazil, and now have to travel all the way home to play a Sunday afternoon game. Tennessee has been in some close games, too. Most recently, it lost to the New York Giants 12-7, and in Week 2, it gave the Philadelphia Eagles all they could handle while falling 24-20.
Again, while I think Baltimore ultimately wins here, it just is not worth the risk. Plus, it will likely be a top choice for the mates in your pool as well.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are a wounded bird, having fallen to 1-2 last week while getting absolutely crushed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, 35-6. That being said, I still do not want to back the Bills in this one, even if they are a massive favorite.
I typically do not like to use a Survivor entry on divisional matchups unless one opponent is clearly inferior to the other, and keep in mind New England is the reigning AFC champion and was considered a contender to win the AFC East before the season.
Each of the previous four meetings between these two teams has been decided by no more than one possession. Additionally, the Bills and Patriots have gone 2-2 across these matchups. This is to say that these rivalry games are highly contested and not the type of game I want to risk an entry with.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
This is another game where I think the favorite ultimately wins, but I am not ready to risk my Survivor entry on the Chiefs in this spot. Plus, if you are following along from last week, we already used the Chiefs against the Miami Dolphins, so they are not an option for some of us.
The Raiders have looked surprisingly good through the first three weeks of the season. They are currently sitting at 3-0 and have beaten the Dolphins, Chargers, and most recently, the New Orleans Saints. They have been able to have success thanks in large part to a defense that has allowed an average of just 317 total yards per game and ranks 12th-best in the league.
The Chiefs also did not look that impressive against Miami, winning the game 24-10. Yes, they covered the spread, but they left a lot out on the field in that one. Additionally, these two teams often have some very close matchups, which keeps my expectations for the Chiefs tempered quite a bit.
Over their previous five matchups, four games have been decided by a single possession. The Raiders have also had some success against the Chiefs, as they have won two of the previous five matchups, including the most recent matchup in Kansas City on January 6.
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes was not involved in that contest, but the trend of close matchups remains and is something to consider when thinking about selecting Kansas City this week.
RAIDERS FORCE ANOTHER FUMBLE AND CALL GAME ‼️ pic.twitter.com/oGMruwoPuT
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
Also Consider Fading
- Chicago Bears (vs. NYJ)
- Indianapolis Colts (at WAS - London Game)
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