Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 3 Lineups (2026)

September 25, 2026

Brandon's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 3 of 2026. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

Week 3 is the first week that actually feels like a season. Two games of usage, snap counts, and defensive tape are now on the board, and the remaining schedule is full of mismatches that will either inflate or crush a player’s ceiling. The Sunday-Monday slate alone has the Ravens and Cowboys in Brazil sitting near a 53-point total, Buffalo hosting the Chargers around 50, and Detroit welcoming the Jets in another high-40s environment. Those games are where volume plus a leaking defense can turn a mid-tier starter into a weekly difference-maker. Then, there are the grinders: Titans-Giants hovering near 39.5, Seattle-Washington barely clearing 40, and a Monday night game that is also priced like a defensive slog. Stack a double-digit spread on top of that -- Kansas City laying more than 10 in Miami, San Francisco laying more than a touchdown at home -- and game script becomes as important as talent.

That is why hunting boom-and-bust names is not a parlor game. Rankings treat every week like a vacuum. Real lineups do not. A running back can be an RB1 on the board and still finish with eight carries if his team is down three scores at halftime. A wide receiver in a 50-point shootout can clear 20 PPR points without being the “alpha” on the depth chart. The optimal lineup is the one that matches early season usage to this week’s implied totals, positional points allowed, and likely scripts. Two weeks is not a full résumé, but it is enough to see who is actually getting the targets, who is losing routes, and which defenses are already giving up explosive weeks.

Get those reads right, and you stop leaving points on the bench. Miss them, and you watch a streaming tight end or a “risky” flex drop 22 while your safe starter quietly puts up six. Week 3 is when that gap starts to decide standings. The point of tracking boom and bust players is simple: build the lineup that has the highest realistic ceiling without walking into a floor you cannot afford. Ahead, I will point out the players I feel are more likely to boom (Woos) and the ones who could create a crater in your lineup and bust (Boos) in fantasy football Week 3.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Booms

Kirk Cousins - QB, Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Cousins has quietly been the most efficient touchdown machine in the league through two weeks. He has six passing scores on just 59 attempts, which leads the NFL, and he has stacked three-touchdown games against Miami and the Chargers.

The yardage has been modest -- 413 total -- but the red-zone finishing has not. He is completing 67.8 percent of his throws; the Raiders are 2-0, and he just went 19-of-29 for 253 yards and three scores in an upset win at Los Angeles.

That is not a fluke streaming week. That is a veteran running Klint Kubiak’s offense and utilizing the modest skill-position talent around him to his benefit. New Orleans is a better landing spot than the ranking boards suggest.

The Saints have already allowed 441 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, plus 18 fantasy points per game at the position after facing Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson.

Consensus still has Cousins around QB20 with a mid-teens projection, which is the exact gap a boom play lives in. The game is indoors, the total sits in the mid-40s, and Brock Bowers is trending toward a return that would give Cousins his best red-zone target.

Six touchdowns in two weeks is a rate that does not stay hidden for long. If it holds even close to that pace against a defense already leaking scoring plays, this is a QB1 week from a player most leagues have ignored.

Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns

Hubbard is already scoring like an RB1 even when the carry count has stayed modest. He has three touchdowns in two games -- a rushing score and a receiving score against Chicago, then another receiving touchdown in the 34-3 win at Atlanta.

That is 22 carries for 102 yards at 4.6 per attempt, plus five catches for 49 yards, and a receiving touchdown in each outing.

Jonathon Brooks managed only five carries last week before leaving with a groin injury, and Hubbard out-touched him 13 to five in Week 1. With Brooks already declared out, the Panthers have every reason to give Hubbard the kind of volume he has not needed to produce.

Cleveland has been easier on the ground than the rankings imply. The Browns have allowed 110 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, including 89 yards on 17 carries to Bucky Irving last week.

Two defenses that have struggled to finish tackles after contact are meeting in a game Carolina is favored to control. Hubbard has already beaten expectations by more than 16 percent on a per-touch basis, and most of his work has come on the opponent’s side of the field.

Consensus still has him around RB20 with a mid-range projection. That could potentially be a projection that is laughable when all things are said and done.

A lead back with three scores in two weeks, a committee that has now collapsed, and a run defense giving up yards is how a flex play turns into a top-12 week.

Adonai Mitchell - WR, New York Jets @ Detroit Lions

Mitchell just forced his way into the Jets’ passing game, and Week 2 was the proof. He led New York with 12 targets against Green Bay, catching six for 63 yards while playing 61 of 74 snaps and running a route on 41 of 50 dropbacks.

That was a 29-33 percent target share, plus a deep pass-interference draw that never showed up in the box score. His 18.9 expected fantasy points ranked as WR8 for the week before the scoreboard caught up, showing a player who is on the rise.

Omar Cooper Jr. is already on injured reserve, so Mitchell is the clear No. 2 opposite Garrett Wilson. A 40-yard catch in Week 1 and 12 looks in Week 2 is not a cameo. It is a role.

Detroit is the matchup that turns that role into a spike. The Lions have allowed 43 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-worst in the league, along with 658 passing yards and six touchdown passes through two weeks.

Chris Olave already dropped 182 yards on this secondary, and Detroit has lost Avonte Maddox for the season. The game total is sitting near 48, and the Jets are underdogs, which usually means more Geno Smith dropbacks, not fewer.

Consensus still ranks Mitchell around WR33 with a six-point projection, and he is rostered in under 20 percent of leagues. Look for that to change in a major way after this week.

His earned volume, a leaking defense, and a ranking that has not caught up to the usage make for a player who can become a vital cog in the wheel for fantasy managers needing a boost in the lineup as a WR3.

Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (Brazil)

Andrews has been open every week. He has 10 catches on 13 targets for 98 yards through two games, including a 6-of-7 game against New Orleans when Zay Flowers was out.

That is a 25 percent target share and a 71 percent snap rate in an offense that no longer has Isaiah Likely or Charlie Kolar siphoning routes. The touchdowns have not shown up yet, which is the only reason his weekly finish looks ordinary.

Two straight 49-yard games with that kind of usage is a tight end waiting on a score, not a tight end fading.

Dallas is the spot where that score should arrive. The Cowboys have already allowed Likely eight catches, 78 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 1, and they are giving up roughly 14 to 17 fantasy points per game to the position.

Tight ends are also catching every target thrown at them against this defense so far. Vegas has Ravens-Cowboys in the low 50s, one of the highest totals on the board, and Baltimore is coming off a loss it will want to answer.

Consensus still has Andrews around TE13 with a mid-range projection. That ranking is pricing in the missing touchdown, not the volume or the matchup.

In a game built to score, a featured tight end with 13 targets and no scores yet is poised to put up a big week for fantasy managers who are keeping the faith.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Busts

Drake Maye - QB, New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Maye’s name is still sitting in the QB1 range on a lot of boards, and that is the problem. The tape and the numbers after two weeks do not match the ranking.

He has one touchdown and four interceptions on 55 attempts, a 63.1 passer rating, and just 193 passing yards per game. Week 1 in Seattle ended 23-of-33 for 178 yards and three picks. Week 2 against Pittsburgh was 14-of-22 for 208 yards, zero scores, and another interception.

All four of those picks have come on deep throws, where his EPA per dropback is sitting at minus-0.73 after he led the league in that category a year ago. Under pressure, he is completing 44 percent with a 33 percent off-target rate. Last season, those numbers were 58 and 11.

Jacksonville is not the place that fixes it. The Jaguars have allowed about 14 to 15 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and generate the third-highest pressure rate in the league with only four rushers.

A.J. Brown is already out for several more weeks, and right guard Mike Onwenu is on injured reserve. New England is a road underdog in a mid-40s total, which is a script that asks Maye to throw into a defense that has already held Deshaun Watson and Bo Nix to 15 fantasy points each.

Consensus still projects him near 18 points as QB12. That projection is last year’s Maye, not this week’s. Until the turnovers drop and the weapons return, this is a bust week dressed up as a must-start.

Jeremiyah Love - RB, Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Love was the third overall pick, and that pedigree is still doing a lot of work in the rankings. The production has not. He has 20 carries for 70 yards at 3.5 per attempt through two weeks, plus five catches for 25 yards.

Week 1 against the Chargers was 11 rushes for 41 yards and a score, but he played only 43 percent of the snaps. Week 2 in Seattle was worse: nine carries for 29 yards and three catches for 16 yards in a 31-7 loss that produced just 151 total yards for Arizona. Tyler Allgeier still took seven touches in that game.

Love is the lead back, not the only back, and the yards after contact have not turned into chunk plays since that first week.

San Francisco is a brutal place to hope the volume finally arrives. The Cardinals are double-digit underdogs on the road with an implied total around 17.5 points, which is the kind of script that takes carries away from a rookie and hands them to a veteran closer.

The 49ers have allowed about 20 PPR points per game to running backs as a group, not to one featured back, and they already held De'Von Achane to 3.7 yards per carry on 20 attempts.

Consensus has Love as high as RB11 in some spots even after a 4.5-point Week 2. That ranking is draft capital talking. Until the efficiency climbs and the game stays close enough for him to keep the ball, this is a bust week hiding inside a first-round name.

George Pickens - WR, Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (Brazil)

Pickens is still being ranked like a WR1, and two weeks of tape say that is a stretch. He has nine catches on 14 targets for 68 yards and zero touchdowns, which is 34 yards a game at 7.6 yards per catch.

Week 1 against the Giants was three grabs for 28 yards and two drops. Week 2 against Washington was six for 40, second on the team while CeeDee Lamb went eight for 153 with two scores on nine targets.

Pickens’ drop rate is sitting at 14.3 percent, his yards after the catch are under a yard per reception, and his PFF grade ranks 55th among 78 qualified receivers. That is not a slump you ignore because of last year’s 1,429-yard season. That is the current role.

The Ravens game is a high-total environment in Brazil, which is why the boards still have him around WR7. The problem is who actually gets the football when Dallas needs a play.

Lamb has already taken the alpha share, and Baltimore’s secondary is built around Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton, two of the higher-graded cover players in the league.

The Ravens have allowed about 16 to 18 standard fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position as a group, not a free lunch for the second option. Consensus is projecting nearly 10 points from a player averaging under eight in PPR.

Until the efficiency and the target pecking order change, starting Pickens as a locked-in WR1 or WR2 is how a bust week sneaks into the lineup.

Colston Loveland - TE, Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Loveland entered the year as a projected top-5 tight end and has one catch for three yards through two games. He was blanked on two targets in Chicago’s 59-point opener, then caught one of three looks for three yards in the 9-3 loss to Minnesota.

That is 1.3 PPR points total and a TE77 finish, even though he has led the Bears in routes and played 86 to 87 percent of the snaps.

The targets are not following the snaps. Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Kalif Raymond are all in the mix, and Loveland’s separation has dropped from 3.7 yards last season to 2.1 this year.

Caleb Williams left Week 2 with a hamstring injury, so the next look could come from Tyson Bagent (or even Case Keenum) instead of the quarterback who actually featured him down the stretch a year ago.

Philadelphia is the worst possible landing spot for a tight end who is already not getting the ball. The Eagles have allowed the fewest or near-fewest fantasy points to the position, about five to nine per game, and opposing tight ends have combined for six catches and 42 yards across two weeks.

Last season, they were the stingiest TE defense in football at 6.2 points per game, and the early 2026 sample looks the same. Consensus still has Loveland around TE10 with a six-point projection because of the route share and the preseason hype.

Route share without targets is a fragile floor, not a reason to start him against a defense that has stuffed the position. Sit him this week and wait for the offense to look like an offense again.

Thank you all for reading my Booms/Busts article! Obviously, I never get every call right, but I hope I provided you with some sound advice/options that helped get your team set up to win this week. Good luck, and let's stack some wins!

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