NFL Betting Picks and Props for Novig (Week 3)

September 24, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 3 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

It's been very different results for me in terms of prop bets this season. I cleaned up in Week 1, nailing most of my calls on that slate, and then got crushed last week with a lot of bets failing to cash. We had quite a few fluky results last week, so I am hoping that is the outlier and that we get back to business this week! Read on for some of my favorite market positions on game outcomes and player props for Sunday's slate of games in Week 3!

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 3 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Washington Commanders (55%) 

While Seattle had to scrape and claw for a win in Week 1, they had no problem handling the Cardinals last week as Drew Lock settled in as the temporary starter and the defense was once again lights out.

Now they head to Washington to face a Commanders team that just lost Jayden Daniels to an injury and will have to start Marcus Mariota at quarterback. I know Washington fans want to believe that the drop-off won't be steep, but I think it will be - and it was pretty obvious to see when Mariota came in the second half last week.

The Washington defense got battered and abused by Dallas, and with their offense now functioning at less than full capacity, I just don't see how the Commanders stay in this one. I have Seattle favored by as much as 11 points in this one, so I am fine laying 6.5 points, even on the road.

Seattle is a machine right now, continuing their winning streak from the middle of last season through the Super Bowl and covering against the spread in 9 of their last 10 road games.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Chase Brown OVER 63.5 rushing yards (49%)

You know I love these lower rushing yards totals; you won't find me betting on the top dogs in the high-70s or 80s very often!

Brown has started the year the same way he finished last season - getting fed the vast majority of the running back touches. He totaled 16 carries in Week 1 against Tampa Bay and then saw 20 carries last week in the Bengals' win over Houston.

Brown has been held in check in terms of his yards per carry (3.6), but has a matchup this week against the Steelers where he could bust loose for some big gains.

The Steelers allowed a long run to TreVeyon Henderson last week as he finished 16-76 and allowed 6-43 to Rhamondre Stevenson as well. While Pittsburgh has a nasty pass rush, their run defense has been lacking, and smart teams have figured out that you run right at them.

Cincinnati has done just that in the past, too, as Brown went 11-108 and 18-99 against them in two games last season. The Bengals offensive line looks improved this season, too.

Look for Brown to get a steady dose of work this week, and don't be surprised if he breaks off some big chunk plays, too, getting us over this total nice and early.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Travis Kelce OVER 51.5 receiving yards (50%)

The ageless wonder has turned back the clock and put up two pretty impressive box scores to start the 2026 season. A big chunk of yards in the Denver game came on one big play; however, he followed that up with a vintage 9-101-1 line against the Colts in Week 2 and appears to be back to being a focal point in this passing game.

Players with 100+ yards after the catch in 2026, per @NextGenStats

1. Travis Kelce - 129
2. Bijan Robinson - 120
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 112

— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) September 23, 2026

I'm not sure I need narratives about him being in "wedding shape" this season. He's still clearly pretty good at football, and as long as he has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, he's going to be that safety valve who earns a half-dozen or more targets per game.

His ability to rack up yards after the catch is still there, and so this line seems awfully low to me, especially when you consider the Dolphins just got chewed up by George Kittle for 4-80-1 last week and have failed to stop anyone so far this year.

We love Kenny Walker and the run game this week, but Kelce is likely to still get his. At even money, I'm smashing the over on this number.

Dalton Schultz OVER 5.5 receptions (43%)

So Schultz opened up at 4.5 receptions, but the over on that number got bet up quickly. If you grabbed it there, congrats, but I am perfectly fine going over 5.5 catches at some very juicy odds here as well.

Nico Collins is looking doubtful for Houston's game against Indy this week, and Schultz is coming off a Week 2 performance in which he piled up 12 catches for 140 yards on 14 targets.

What a catch by Dalton Schultz!

CINvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Y6HeGXkdDV

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026

He now has a 25% target share on the season and is basically the first option for C.J. Stroud right now until Collins gets back. He has the same matchup here that Kelce had last week, and I think he could definitely see double-digit targets again in this one.

He had some success against the Colts last season, too, going 7-55 and 4-73 last year.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown (50%)

JSN has found paydirt in both of his first two games and is coming off a tremendous three-touchdown performance against the Cardinals. But despite his dominant start, we can still get him at even money to score this week against a pretty poor Washington defense!

Through two games, he has a 67% red zone target share! Meanwhile, the Commanders' defense has been leaky to pass-catchers this year around the goal line, allowing seven receiving touchdowns while not allowing a single rushing touchdown.

I think it's likely Drew Lock under center again for Seattle, but we've already seen that who the quarterback is doesn't matter much for JSN. His role in this offense is unchanged, and I think Seattle goes back to him often when it matters the most in this one.

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