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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/31/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Francisco Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and others!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! I'm back for the third day in a row, and it was a better outing yesterday. Caglianone went yard in his second AB, and leave it to the Padres to switch up their pitching rotation for the second day in a row; that being said, German Marquez is projected once again to start for the Padres today, so that puts Bryce Eldridge back on the menu. Consider that a bonus play for y'all! Now let's get into the rest of the plays!
I have four spots on deck for y'all today. We have some elite matchups to dig into, but if you are looking for some more options or other bets, make sure you also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 31, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/31/2026)
Francisco Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+414, DraftKings)
I generally don't like taking a nine-hole hitter for a home run, but I think Francisco Alvarez is worth a shot. He has been crushing the ball against RHP, while posting an average exit velocity of 101.5 mph across the last five games! That is 10.3 mph faster than his season average; on top of all that, he is sporting a .821 OPS, .210 ISO, 18.3% Barrel%, and a 46% HardHit%. He has three home runs in the last 10 games, all against RHP.
As for the guy on the mound, the Marlins are going to trot Janson Junk out on the mound. This season, Junk has been statistically worse against lefties, but he has allowed nearly the same number of home runs to righties while seeing them 26% less often. Junk has also been much worse on the road, where he sports a 6.31 ERA and a HR/9 of 1.8.
Alvy 💥 pic.twitter.com/KG3NMDLFSx
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2026
Citi Field has also been great for righties who have hit the 10th most home runs across the last three years, and on top of that, we are getting some nice winds blowing out to left field, which should give the righties a slight boost. The only real downside to this play is where he is in the lineup; if for some reason we get lucky and he moves up, that is going to be a big win for us. Otherwise, we have to hope he hits his 13th home run of the season early on in this game.
Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+275, Hard Rock)
We are getting a beautiful right-on-right matchup here between Junior Caminero and Erick Fedde. Fedde has had some insane reverse splits this season; RHH have hit Fedde for 14 of his 19 home runs this season and are sporting a .531 SLG and .266 ISO, an 11.6% Barrel%, and a 36% HardHit%. Fedde has also given up four home runs in his last two starts. So in other words, this is a great spot for Caminero, who has also hit righties extremely well this season.
Caminero is one short of 30 home runs on the season, and has been searching for that one home run since the second day after the All-Star break. He has been struggling a bit, but his season stats are still far too juicy to overlook this great matchup. Caminero has been sporting a .913 OPS, .264 ISO, 16.3% Barrel%, and a 50% HardHit%. All of those lead the team by quite a bit, which goes to show how dominant Caminero has been this season.
Looking at Fedde's pitch mix, it should line up pretty well. Caminero has hit the Cutter and Sinker very well, and the Sweeper has been a bit hit or miss for him, but Fedde really only throws those three pitches. This month has been by far Fedde's worst in terms of home runs; he has an absurd 28% HR/FB%, and someone with the power that Caminero produces is going to tank something if he even slightly mislocates his pitches.
