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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/23/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Drake Baldwin, Junior Caminero, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After a long day of games yesterday, we get a bit of a rest day, as 20 of the 30 teams are off. With 10 teams still playing, that should give us plenty to choose from when it comes to home runs! We start fairly early as the Braves host the Padres at 12:15 PM EST, and cap the day off with the Tigers hosting the Royals at 6:40 pm EST.
I have three solid home run bets for y'all today, and to cap it off, I have a longshot bet that I really like as well! Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 23, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/23/2026)
Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+448, DraftKings )
There are five lefties on this Braves team that very well could go yard in this spot against Griffin Canning. Canning has struggled heavily against lefties this season, and had he not been so good against righties, he could have a worse ERA than he already has at 6.95. He is also sporting a 2.12 HR/9 against lefties while they hit him for a .541 SLG, .222 ISO, 14.3% Barrel%, and a 51.4% HardHit%.
This was one of the hardest choices probably all year; I have tried to pick between two guys on the same team in a great spot. Both Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II have been great this season, and both very well could go yard. I edge Drake Baldwin out slightly more due to recent performances. He has three home runs in his last five games, and has just been on fire with 12 hits in his last 25 ABs, including a five-hit game against the Rangers on Sunday.
ATL - Drake Baldwin Solo HR (17)
📏 395 ft | 💨 98.2 mph | 📐 30°
⚾️ 73.1 mph curveball (TEX - RHP Nathan Eovaldi)
🏟️ Out in 23/30 parksTEX (0) @ ATL (3)
🔻 3rd#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/U38DduG1qD— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) July 19, 2026
Harris II has been slightly better against Canning's pitch mix, but overall I have to go with Drake Baldwin, who has been lighting it up in recent games. On the season against RHP, Baldwin is sporting a .855 OPS, .209 ISO, 21.6% Barrel%, and a 50.7% HardHit%. Across the last five games, he is averaging a 95 mph exit velocity, and as long as he keeps it up, he should have no issue going yard here against Canning.
Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240, Hard Rock)
I personally don't love taking odds this low, but Junior Caminero has just been a different breed this year. If it wasn't for Yordan Alvarez, Caminero could really be in the running for AL MVP. Caminero is looking for Number 30 in this one, and I think it's a good spot for him here against Shane Bieber. Bieber hasn't quite had the start of the season he probably would have liked, as he sits with a 5.70 ERA in his first five starts.
Bieber has given up seven home runs in those first five starts, and his last start was the only one without one. The RHH have specifically been hitting him hard, so if you want something a little longer in odds, Yandy Diaz makes for a valid pivot option. The righties are sporting a .723 SLG, .319 ISO, 17.5% Barrel%, and a 55% HardHit% against Bieber this season.
Caminero already has one home run against Bieber, and is putting up a .899 OPS, .278 ISO, 15.7% Barrel%, and a 50.7% HardHit%. On top of all that, he has hit Bieber's pitch mix of Cutter, Slider, and Four-Seamer really well. Sometimes it's just better to take the easy home run option; it's not always as fun as hitting something with bigger odds, but at least it makes some money, right?
