Will Jhoan Duran Face Regression in the Second Half?

Jul 14, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies right-handed closer Jhoan Duran heads into this week's All-Star break with eight straight successful save conversions and a 1.38 ERA (1.08 FIP), 0.92 WHIP, 24 saves, 50 strikeouts, and six walks in 32 2/3 innings out of the bullpen in his first full season with the Phillies. The 28-year-old Dominican hurler also was rewarded with his first All-Star appearance as one of the most dominant closers in the game in the first half. But should fantasy managers be worried about regression in the second half? The answer is no. Duran sports a 39.7% strikeout rate (100th percentile) and a career-best 4.8% walk rate. Although he's in just the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate, he sits in the 88th percentile in barrel rate, the 100th percentile in whiff rate, the 90th percentile in chase rate, and the 99th percentile in xwOBA, which proves he's still one of the most dominant relief arms in baseball on one of the better teams in the league. And if Duran can stay healthy in the second half, he should easily set a new career high in saves after reaching 32 saves with the Phils and the Minnesota Twins last year. Since his last blown save on June 9 against the Toronto Blue Jays, Duran hasn't allowed a run in 11 innings while picking up eight saves, striking out 17, and walking only one.--Keith Hernandez
Source: Baseball Reference