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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Byron Buxton, Willson Contreras, and others!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a bit of a lighter slate on deck for us today, as only 18 teams are in play. We start it off early in Philly and cap the night off in Phoenix. I have had solid success recently with these articles, and I'm hoping to roll that into the weekend!
In this article, we'll focus on four home run spots that I think are strong plays across today's MLB Slate. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 4, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/4/2026)
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+328 DraftKings)
I'm going to start you all off with an easy one. Byron Buxton has been a home-run-hitting machine this year. He has 17 homers, 16 of which have come against RHP, and has just been flat out the best player for this Twins team. Watch for him to be a possible trade candidate if the Twins decide to go that route. He is going against the righty Seth Lugo, who takes the mound for the Royals today.
Lugo is seeing righties at nearly half the rate of lefties, but he has been getting smoked by righties this season. That bodes well for us as Buxton has been extremely good against righties. Righties are sporting a .457 SLG, .192 ISO, 13.4% Barrel%, and a 41.5% HardHit%. We are also getting some hitter-friendly conditions with it being warmer and roughly 10 mph winds blowing out towards left field.
As I mentioned, Buxton has crushed righties to the tune of a .618 SLG, .363 ISO, 16.8% Barrel%, and a 40.7% HardHit%. All of which led the team except HardHit%. Lugo has only given up four home runs this season, but they have started to come more often. Three of them in the last three games.
The Monster clears the monster! pic.twitter.com/vYMEVgNb3c
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 23, 2026
Buxton is by far the best option on this slate to go yard, which goes to show why his odds are what they are.
Willson Contreras OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 Hard Rock)
I have a great SGP opportunity for us in this game. I'm going to start us off with Willson Contreras, though. He finds himself in a great spot against Trevor Rogers. Rogers has started to struggle as the season has gone on. He has now given up eight home runs on the season, seven of which have come against righties. Lucky for us, Contreras has been dynamite against lefties this season.
Contreras has been having a fantastic season so far. He is up to 11 home runs on the season, and for how little he has seen lefties, he is up to four home runs against them and is batting .300. He also leads the team in SLG at .620, ISO at .320, and an absurd 23.1% Barrel%. He is also sporting a solid 46.2% HardHit%. No righty for the Red Sox is hitting lefties better than Contreras right now.
Contreras has been hitting the ball hard, too. He is averaging a 92.3 mph exit velocity and has six 100+ mph batted balls in his last 15. That should go well for us against Rogers, who righties have tormented. They are sporting a .536 SLG, .218 ISO, 9.4% Barrel%, and a 40.6% HardHit%. I don't love hitting towards The Green Monster, but so far Contreras has hit well in Fenway, so why doubt him now!
