NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Picks for Every Series in Every Round

April 17, 2026

Andy's NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Picks for Every Series in Every Round. Read his top picks and predictions for each series and round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs are officially set. After a long season, the final 16 teams are standing and will look to make a run to take home Lord Stanley.

In this piece, we will make our predictions for each round (and series) of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, starting with the opening round, which begins on Saturday.

Who will be crowned Stanley Cup Champions this year? Let's dive in!

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators

Season Record - 2-1 vs. 1-2

Starting things off will be the top team in the Eastern Conference, facing the No. 2 Wild Card, the Ottawa Senators. The Hurricanes ran away with the Metropolitan Division this season and had the top seed in the East all but clinched as well. They took down the Senators twice this season and enter this series as the clear favorite due to their dominant regular season.

However, the underlying metrics suggest these teams may be quite close. Per MoneyPuck.com, the Hurricanes sit second in xGoals% while the Senators are in the third, trailing only the Avalanche. However, where the Hurricanes shine in Corsi%, they lead the league with an incredible 60.55%. Ottawa's low 75.7% PK% will struggle against Carolina's dominant power-play (finished fourth-highest in the sport).

Ottawa netminder Linus Ullmark does enter the playoffs winning five of his last six, with an elite 1.83 GAA, and could push this series to six or seven games if he can extend this hot streak. However, Carolina's style of play should get the job done.

Prediction - Hurricanes in 6

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins

Season Record - 1-1-2 vs. 3-1

One of the biggest surprises of the 2025-26 NHL season was not only that the Buffalo Sabers snapped their lengthy playoff drought, but also that they did so in a dominant fashion. The Sabers clinched the top spot in the Atlantic Division and nearly claimed the top spot in the Conference over the Hurricanes.

They finished the regular season with 50 wins and 109 total points. The Sabers scored the fifth-most goals in the sport (283) but sat near the middle of the pack with 240 goals allowed. Boston was also a top-10 offense but sat just below the Sabers in terms of goals allowed.

Under the hood, both teams generated a similar Corsi% (49% - 48%) and xGoals% (49.9% - 47.2%), making this series much closer than their regular-season record suggests.

The wild card in this series will be Jeremy Swayman. Since March 1, Swayman has been playing at a Vezina-level, posting a 9-5-1 record with a .920 SV%. If Swayman continues this level of play and David Pastrnak sees consistent contributors from his less-than-impressive supporting cast, the Bruins will be moving on.

WHAT A SAVE BY JEREMY SWAYMAN 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nplyqZ3DcF

— NHL (@NHL) March 25, 2026

Prediction - Bruins in 6

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens

Season Record - 2-2 vs. 2-1-1

This will be the most contested series in the opening round on the East side of the bracket. The Lightning and Canadiens went back and forth in the standings throughout March, finishing with 106 points each, but with Tampa holding the tiebreaker, they will host the critical Game 7.

The Canadiens enter this series as the "hotter" team, given their 7-3 record over their last 10 compared to Tampa Bay's 5-5 record. However, this Lightning team is led by several former Stanley Cup Champions, most of whom have won it twice. Their offense is driven by MVP favorite Nikita Kucherov, who tallied 130 points over 76 games.

The Canadiens are coming out of their rebuild and are shaping up to be one of the most productive teams of the next decade, led by Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Nick Suzuki. Caufield finished his campaign with 51 goals, smashing his previous high of 37.

The name to watch is Montreal netminder Jakub Dobes, who was one of the best netminders in March, alongside Swayman. Dobes won 10 of his last four games while carrying a .924% SV%. While the Canadiens have the goalie advantage in most matchups, they don't here as he will face Vezina favorite Andrei Vasilevskiy, a two-time Stanley Cup winner.

This series is a near toss-up. However, Tampa Bay's underlying 54% xGoals% is the fourth-highest in the sport, while the Canadiens have allowed the fifth-most high-danger shot attempts. This could be the difference maker, especially if Tampa Bay can capitalize on its opportunities.

Prediction - Lightning in 7

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Season Record - 2-0-2 vs. 2-2

The final Eastern series in the opening round will be the Battle of Pennsylvania. Entering the season, neither of these clubs was projected to finish near the postseason, and yet they sit as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Metropolitan Division. The Penguins have been one of the league's top scoring clubs, putting 290 pucks behind the net, trailing only Carolina and Colorado.

Philadelphia is a bottom team in terms of offense, but has allowed the 10th-fewest goals (239). Much of this is credited to netminder Dan Vladar, who should receive a handful of Vezina votes this season. In his debut campaign with the Flyers, Vladar posted a strong 2.42 GAA with a .902% SV% and can steal a few games for the Flyers.

In terms of 5-on-5 play, the Penguins enter this season with a clear edge, boasting the 13th-highest Corsi% while the Flyers sit 26th. While the Pittsburgh goaltender situation is a major weakness, the Penguins' offense should get the job done and control play at even strength, which should be the difference-maker.

Prediction - Penguins in 6

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings

Season Record: 3-0 vs. 0-3

The President's Trophy winners will host the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round. The Avalanche has sat at the top of the league standings all season, while the Kings stumbled into a playoff position. While they have won six of their last 10 (and only dropped two in regulation), they enter the playoffs with a low 90 points.

They have just 22 of their gams in regulation (won 35 altogether) and have earned 20 of their points in overtime/shootout losses, which was the difference between them jumping the Blues, Predators, and Sharks in the standings.

Scoring has been an issue for this club as they enter the postseason with the third-fewest total goals this season, but they sit 15th in the league standings in goals scored since March 1, which is a positive sign. In terms of defense, Los Angeles is elite and could contain the high-powered Avalanche, as they have surrendered the seventh-fewest goals.

Unfortunately, they will be facing the team that has both scored the most and allowed the fewest goals this season. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Avalanche sits second in Corsi%, first in xGoals%, and second in high-danger shots.

Their netminder, Darcy Kuemper, will need to shake off the .854% SV% he has posted over his last seven outings to have a chance to steal this series.

Prediction - Avalanche in 4

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth

Season Record - 1-2 vs. 2-1

The Golden Knights claimed the top spot in the Pacific Division and will play host to the No. 1 Wild Card, the Utah Mammoth. The Golden Knights were far from consistent this season, but enjoyed a dominant stretch under newly named HC John Tortorella. Over their last 10, the Golden Knights have posted an elite 7-0-3 record, winning each of their last three.

The Mammoth have posted a lower 6-4 record over their last 10 but carry similar underlying marks, which suggests this series may be closer than it's projected to be. Per MoneyPuck.com, the Mammoth sit sixth in xGoals% while the Golden Knights sit fourth. Utah has the edge in Corsi% (52.1% - 52.2%), and both sit within the top-10 in Expected Goals Against, the Golden Knights earning the slight edge.

While the Mammoth appeared to have the edge in goaltending for most of the season, Carter Hart has claimed the top spot in Vegas and has not disappointed, posting a 1.66 GAA with a 6-0 record over his last six games.

Prediction - Golden Knights in 6

Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild

Season Record - 1-1-1 vs. 2-1

Like in the Atlantic Division matchup, this is the most contested series of the opening round in the West. This matchup was all but clinched for nearly two months as the Avalanche ran away with the division, setting up the Stars and Wild to face off in the opening round. The Stars have the edge in points, giving them home ice advantage, but the Wild have the slight edge in their regular season matchups, winning two of the three.

This will be a low-scoring series, as both teams are among the top defensive teams in the sport, allowing the second- and fifth-fewest goals allowed. In terms of offense, the Stars have the lead, scoring 279 goals to Minnesota's 272, making this a near-even matchup.

Under the hood, however, Minnesota appears to be the slight favorite. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Wild have generated the 11th-highest xGoals% compared to Dallas'13th. In terms of Corsi%, the Wild sit just below Dallas.

This series will come down to which pair of impact wingers can get the job done (Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy) or (Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston). Kaprizov ended his regular season on a scoring binge, tallying seven goals over his last seven games. Additionally, Minnesota has Norris candidate Quinn Hughes, who can spark the offense himself from the blue line and is one of the true difference makers at the position.

This is going to seven games. When it comes to impact players, Minnesota has the slight edge and should pull off the "upset" as the No. 3 seed.

Ducks penalty killers a bit too puck-focused as it pinballs around the net front, which allows Kaprizov to bang it home

1-0 MIN#FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/QFDzrvIbci

— Patrick Present (@PatrickCPresent) January 3, 2026

Prediction - Wild in 7

Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks

Season Record: 2-1 vs. 1-2

Even though the Oilers could potentially be without superstar Leon Draisaitl for "most" of this series, we predict Connor McDavid to get the job done against the Ducks. In the regular season, the Oilers took the series, winning two games and scoring six or more goals in both.

The Oilers enter the postseason as the far better team as they boast a 6-2-2 record over their last 10, and nearly claimed the top spot in the Pacific Division over the Golden Knights, finishing just two points behind them. However, the Ducks, have won just two of their last 10 games and dropped six in regulation.

In terms of team statistics, the Oilers have the edge in both offense and defense. The Oilers have scored the sixth-most goals (compared to Anaheim's 13th-most). Despite their shaky goaltending, Edmonton has allowed 265 goals (ninth-most), and the Ducks sit even lower in the standings, surrendering 288 goals.

When looking at underlying marks, the Ducks are given the slight edge in xGoals% (51.8% - 51.6%) in 5-on-5 play. However, in special teams, the Oilers stand clearly above. They boast the league's No. 1 power-play unit, while the Ducks sit at 10th-worst.

The Ducks will steal a few games given Connor Ingram's inconsistency in net, but expect the Oilers to come out on top.

Prediction - Oilers in 6

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Season Record: 3-1 vs. 1-3

The first match-up in Round 2 will be the Hurricanes against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Hurricanes have taken care of business against this team three times during the regular season and should do so again in the playoffs. While the regular-season games were often close, with two being one-goal games, the underlying metrics strongly favor Carolina.

According to MoneyPuck.com, the Hurricanes sit second in xGoals% and second in Expected Goals Differential. While the Pittsburgh offense is elite, as noted earlier, their goaltending is not. It should not hinder them from taking down the Flyers, but they will catch up soon enough.

Since March 1, projected starting goalie Stuart Skinner has posted a 3.35 GAA with a .881% SV%. This is a major weakness for this club and will likely be the reason for a second-round exit. The Penguins' offense should push this to six games, but do not expect another lengthy playoff run from Sidney Crosby and company.

Prediction - Hurricanes in 6

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins

Season Record - 4-0 vs. 0-4

We project the Bruins to pull off the upset in Round 1, but their run will come to a screeching halt against the Lightning. Tampa Bay has taken this team down four times in the regular season, and a similar result will occur this spring. In these four games, the Lightning allowed just one goal or fewer in two, and only allowed more than three goals in just one.

Tampa Bay is one of the most complete teams in the sport, despite their less than impressive conclusion to the regular season. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Lightning have posted the fifth-highest Expected Goal Differential while allowing the fourth-fewest giveaways.

As noted above, Swayman has the ability to steal a series, as he could do in Round 1, but will now face the league's premier netminder in Tampa Bay. Boston will need Pastrnak to play at an MVP-level and especially Morgan Geekie to rekindle his early-season form for this team to have a legitimate chance for an upset.

Prediction - Lightning in 5

Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild

Season Record: 2-1-1 vs. 2-1-1

This matchup should be the Western Conference Final. However, due to the league's current playoff setup, these two teams will meet in a star-studded Western Conference Semifinals match. During the regular season, these two teams posted identical 2-1-1 records against each other.

Despite Colorado tallying 17 more points in the regular season, these teams are as even as they come on a per-game basis. The Colorado offense is borderline unstoppable, as shown in their league-high 56.67% xGoals% and 214 total goals scored. However, as noted before, the Wild boast one of the sport's elite defensive units and are capable of limiting Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas. They have allowed the 11th-fewest Expected Goals Against Per 60 and the fourth-fewest total high-danger shot attempts against.

Despite this, it is hard to bet against the Colorado offense and the way netminder Scott Wedgewood has performed since March 1 (.943 SV%). The Avalanche will likely have additional days of rest while the Wild and Stars will battle to seven games in Round 1, which is a major factor to consider.

The Wild are built to win the cup this season, but still fall just short in comparison to the Avalanche.

Prediction - Avalanche in 7

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers

Season Record: 1-2-1 vs. 3-1

The wild card in this series will be Leon Draisaitl's health. While Draisaitl is expected to be ready for the opening round, if he is fully cleared for Round 2, the Oilers should take care of business in this "upset" victory.

In the regular season, the Oilers have had Vegas' number, taking them down three times with their lone loss coming in their most recent on April 4. While the Knights have been one of the hottest teams in the league since the middle of March, the Oilers project to come out on top of this Pacific Division tilt.

Per MoneyPuck.com, the Oilers sit within the top-10 in xGoals%, but the Golden Knights sit slightly high in the No. 4 spot. Despite this, Edmonton's special teams, especially their power play, should offset their slight disadvantage in 5-on-5 play. During the regular season, the Oilers posted a 30.1% PP%, the best in the sport.

While goaltending remains an issue, the Oilers have overcome it before, primarily due to the play of Draisaitl and McDavid. McDavid enters this season playing some of the best hockey of his career, tallying 23 points (11 goals) over his last 14 games. A healthy Draisaitl gives the Oilers the edge in seven games. In a close series like this, star power will be the difference.

Prediction - Oilers in 7

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Eastern Conference Final)

Season Record: 2-1 vs. 1-2

The Eastern final will be between two of the top overall teams in the league, the Hurricanes and the Lightning. The Hurricanes have often fallen short in these situations in years past, while the Lightning have reached multiple Stanley Cup Finals and Eastern Conference Finals.

The Hurricanes have the slight edge in regular-season play (and will have home ice in Game 7), but we will predict the Lightning to take care of business in a thrilling seven-game series. Per MoneyPuck.com, these teams are as "even" as you can get. Both clubs place within the top-5 in xGoals% and the top-3 in Corsi%, joined by the Avalanche.

However, the edge in this series goes to Tampa Bay's defense and, more importantly, their netminder. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Lightning have allowed the fourth-fewest Expected Goals Against, while the Hurricanes sit in eighth. The Lightning have also prevented high-danger chances at a high rate, allowing the third-fewest in the sport.

This should allow Andrei Vasilevskiy to take the lead in this series. While he stopped just 49 of the 56 shots he saw when facing the Canes in the regular season, Tampa Bay has the clear positional edge over Brandon Bussi in the net.

Prediction - Lightning in 7

Colorado Avalanche vs. Edmonton Oilers (Western Conference Final)

Season Record - 2-1 vs. 1-1-1

The Western Conference Final will be between two of the top MVP candidates, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon. Assuming Draisaitl is back to full strength, the Oilers should give the President's Trophy winners another tough test, as the Wild are expected to do in Round 2.

Before being shut down due to injury, Draisaitl was on pace to be in the Hart Trophy conversation once again. Through 65 games, she found the back of the net 35 times while adding another 62 helpers. While the Edmonton offense will keep them in games against the Avalanche, their shaky net-minding will catch up to them in this series.

Entering the postseason, Connor Ingram is slated to be the primary netminder, but he does not carry much job security. When he posted a strong .937% SV% over his last three games, prior to this brief surge, he was far from consistent. Over the last nine, he would carry a 2.75 GAA with a .902 SV%.

On the other side of the crease, Colorado will have a Vezina candidate in Scott Wedgewood, who is playing the best hockey of his career. We could see some high-scoring affairs, but when a clutch save is needed, the Avalanche will come out on top, giving the edge in our prediction in six games.

Prediction - Avalanche in 6

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Stanley Cup Final)

Season Record: 1-1 vs. 1-1

To round this out, we will see the Avalanche play host to the Lightning in the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Final. These teams split in the regular season, and we will likely see a thrilling back-and-forth seven-game series between these two powerhouses if they were to meet in the finals.

As noted earlier, these two clubs boast the best metrics in the sport across nearly all categories, making them the favorites to meet in the final match of the season. Per MoneyPuck.com, these teams sit at No. 1 and No. 2 in Goals% and both in the top-5 in terms of xGoals%, with the Avalanche on top. In Corsi%, both are No. 2 and No. 3, and both sit within the top-4 in terms of total goals scored.

In terms of special teams, both have underwhelming power-play units, but the Lightning carries a higher 20.7% compared to Colorado's 17.4%. On the penalty kill, they sit as the No. 1 and No. 3 teams, with Colorado earning the slight edge.

There is no doubt this matchup would go to seven games as the top-2 MVP candidates, Kucherov and MacKinnon, lead these respective teams. In a winner-take-all game, it is hard to bet against the Big Cat. Entering the playoffs, he has posted an incredible 1.51 GAA with a .945% SV% in Game 7s and has the pedigree to steal the final game of the series.

Prediction - Lightning in 7

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