Matt Miller's 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship Longshot Bets

March 10, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Keith Mitchell (100-1 FanDuel)

The approach play has been really good for Keith Mitchell lately. Last week the 34-year-old finished 4^th in the field in strokes gained approach. This marked the third consecutive tournament that Mitchell gained at least two strokes on approach against the field. His last two starts he has gained over four strokes on approach.

PGA National remembers 2019. So does Keith Mitchell. #CashmereKeith pic.twitter.com/XQZcdRL8ab

— Imperial 1916 (@ImperialHats) February 26, 2026

While he will need to sort out the accuracy a bit this week, Keith Mitchell is one of the best players in the world off the tee. He has finished inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee each of the past five seasons. This year he currently ranks 10^th in this category.

Mitchell’s putter has let him down to begin the season. That said, the ball striking is good enough at the moment that I’m willing to take a chance on him flipping the putter this week. Putting is the stat with the most variance on a week-to-week basis after all. I applied the same logic to Austin Smotherman and Daniel Berger in this article each of the past two weeks and both produced second place finishes.

Mitchell has made six of eight cuts at this event in his career. His best finish was a T13 in 2022. The former Georgia Bulldog’s lone PGA Tour victory came in Florida at the Honda Classic, so he is no stranger to success in the Sunshine State.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Aaron Rai (100-1 FanDuel)

With trouble lurking around every corner at TPC Sawgrass, I love that accuracy is not a concern with Aaron Rai. Rai is one of the most accurate players off the tee in the world. The past two season on the PGA Tour, Rai has ranked 2^nd and 1^st in driving accuracy.

Aaron Rai makes a hole-in-one at the 17th.

It’s the first time two aces have been made at the Island Green in the same Players Championship. pic.twitter.com/2SDlLzo2Xq

— Underdog Golf (@UnderdogGolf) March 11, 2023

In addition to his consistency off the tee, Rai has been extremely consistent with his irons. The Englishman has now gained strokes on approach in eight consecutive starts and 12 of his last 13. He has also gained strokes on approach at this event in each of his last three appearances.

In three career starts at The PLAYERS Championship, Rai has yet to finish outside of the top 35. His best result was a 14^th place finish last season. Admittedly, a win feels like a pretty big ask this week, but Rai has won before on the PGA Tour. He won the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield in 2024, a course that rewards accuracy off the tee and good approach play.

Michael Brennan (230-1 DraftKings)

Brennan earned his first PGA Tour victory at the Bank of Utah Championship in October. In doing so, he became the first PGA Tour player since Jim Benepe to win in his first start as a professional on the PGA Tour. Since then, the results have been mediocre for the 24-year-old.

While the finishes alone don’t jump off the page, there’s a lot to like from a ball striking perspective. Brennan is currently leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee for the 2026 season. He ranks 2^nd in distance and 9^th in total driving, while also being above average in driving accuracy. This is going to be a huge advantage at a course like TPC Sawgrass.

Brennan has also gained strokes on approach in his last three measured starts. The problem for the Wake Forest grad has been the short game and putting. He has lost strokes around the green and putting in five straight measured starts.

I admittedly don’t see Brennan doing enough to win the event this week but the off the tee and approach play has been too good to ignore. Brennan will be someone I target in a placement position as well as a potential first round leader candidate.

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