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Carlos Estevez 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Solid Saves Totals Mask Worrisome Trends
Carlos Estevez logged 42 saves with a 4-5 record and 2.45 ERA in his age-32 season, but his surface success masks worrisome trends. His 3.69 xERA and 4.95 xFIP aren't closer material, while his 20.1 K% and 8.2 BB% fall well short of dominance. Estevez's fastball lost a full tick of velocity (96.8 mph to 95.9), generating a 7.9 SwStr% and 55.9 Zone%. His slider posted an 8.4 SwStr% and 58 Zone%. His change offered a 9.2 SwStr% and 48.5 Zone%. None of them had chase rates above 30 percent, so Estevez won't help with strikeouts. Estevez also allowed a 51.6 FB% last season, with a 5.2 percent HR/FB saving him from disaster. The Royals are moving Kauffman Stadium's fences in to help their offense, meaning the park won't help Estevez's HR/FB anymore. Lucas Erceg (25 K% career, 3.82 xERA last year) and Matt Strahm (27.3 K%, 2.75 xERA in 2025) both represent better ninth-inning options for KC, making Estevez the third-best reliever on his team. His 86.90 ADP is way too rich.
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