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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 on 12/06/25. Alen's MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The final UFC pay-per-view event of 2025, also known as UFC 323, takes place this Saturday night, showcasing two title fights. This is also UFC's last pay-per-view event before its new media deal with Paramount Skydance takes effect in 2026. In the main event of UFC 323, Merab Dvalishvili looks to for the fourth time this year when he welcomes former bantamweight champion Petr Yan in a rematch. In the co-main event, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his title for the fifth time as he takes on rising prospect Joshua Van.
Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz is scheduled to open up the UFC 323 main card against Bogdan Guskov. The next fight on the main card is scheduled to be a three-round bantamweight matchup between the former two-division champion Henry Cejudo and surging Payton Talbott. Also on the main card, we have a former flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno, facing off against Tatsuro Taira. The winner of that fight just might become the next title challenger.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 on 12/06/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck, RotoBallers!
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Merab Dvalishvili, $9.5K - vs. Petr Yan
Bantamweight champion Dvalishvili and former bantamweight champion Yan are scheduled for a rematch in the main event of UFC 323 on Saturday. Dvalishvili aims to make history with his fourth title defense in a calendar year, while Yan looks for his fourth consecutive win and to reclaim the bantamweight title.
Made it look easy 😮💨@MerabDvalishvil is your first nominee for #UFCHonors Submission of the Year!
[ Voting begins December 27th ] pic.twitter.com/p7cfeo1ydS
— UFC (@ufc) December 2, 2025
The 34-year-old Dvalishvili is hoping to break the UFC record for the most successful title defences in one year, as well as cement himself as the greatest bantamweight of all time. Since losing back-to-back fights to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon, Dvalishvili has been on a tear, winning 14 fights in a row.
"The Machine" fought a little over a month ago at UFC 320, where he dominated Cory Sandhagen for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. Dvalishvili and Yan initially clashed back in 2023, with Dvalishvili going on to score a unanimous decision victory. Since then, Dvalishvili has gone 5-0.
Yan worked his way back to another title fight after recent wins over Deiveson Figueiredo, Marcus McGhee, and Song Yadong. Before his current run, Yan lost three straight bouts, including defeats to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley and Dvalishvili. Yan lost to Dvalishvili in March 2023 at UFC Fight Night 221, and simply put, Yan had no answer for the wrestling and pressure of Dvalishvili that night.
Yan dominated Yadong in his comeback fight to win a unanimous decision. He nearly quadrupled former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in strikes when they met in November 2024, and he had an impressive performance against McGhee; however, in those three fights, Yan has gone to the judges' scorecards each time.
Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-4 and 14-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.55 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is elite as he averages 6.40 takedowns every 15 minutes. Dvalishvili also has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown defense of 82%.
Yan enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-5 and 11-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Yan absorbs 4.14 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.58 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 48% and his takedown defense is 85%.
When they fought two years ago, Dvalishvili dominated Yan with his wrestling, and I think the same scenario will play out again. He probably has the best cardio in the UFC, and you can expect Dvalishvili to have a similar performance to the one he had the first time they fought. Despite winning three straight fights, Yan will again be outmatched, and Dvalishvili will dominate Yan to win a unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexandre Pantoja, $9.0K - vs. Joshua Van
Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is scheduled to take on rising prospect Joshua Van in the co-main event of UFC 323 on Saturday. Pantoja is set for his fifth title defense while Van looks to become the new flyweight champion and win his fourth fight this year.
His submissions end the fight QUICK 💨@PantojaMMA is looking for another fast finish at flyweight!
[ #UFC323 | SAT 10pmET on @ESPN PPV ] pic.twitter.com/xhokaAK1E2
— UFC (@ufc) December 5, 2025
One of the best fighters of all time and certainly the best flyweight champion in UFC history remains Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, but Pantoja is closing the gap with every fight. He earned the title in 2023 by beating Brandon Moreno via split decision, and since then, he has defended his title four times, beating the likes of Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg and Kai Asakura.
He was last seen in action in June at UFC 317, where he finished Kai Kara-France via third-round submission. He is undefeated in his last eight fights, with his last defeat coming all the way back in July 2020 against Askar Askarov.
After losing his fourth UFC bout to Charles Johnson, Joshua bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Edgar Chairez. He is currently on a five-fight winning streak, and he's been extremely active this year, winning all three fights. Back in June, Van stopped Bruno Silva, and just a few weeks later, in his last bout, which was one of the most entertaining fights of 2025, Van outboxed Royval to win via unanimous decision.
Due to his boxing and counterstriking, Van has quickly become one of the UFC’s fastest-rising flyweight prospects.
Pantoja enters this fight with an MMA record of 30-5 and 14-3 in the UFC. He averages 4.36 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Pantoja absorbs 3.88 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.80 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same period. Pantoja has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 69%.
Van enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 8-1 in the UFC. He averages 8.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. Van absorbs 6.36 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. Regarding his grappling, Van is averaging 0.85 takedowns every 15 minutes. Van has a takedown accuracy of 63% and a takedown defense of 81%.
Van is extremely tough, and he has proven that he belongs among the best flyweights, but I don't see him beating Pantoja. In my opinion, the only way Van could beat Pantoja is by knocking him out, but Pantoja is durable as well, and his grappling is much better than Van's.
I see Pantoja trying to sweep and tire out Van in the clinch before taking him down, and considering that Pantoja possibly has the best jiu-jitsu in the flyweight division, it should be in Van's best interest to avoid getting taken down. Eventually, Pantoja is going to take Van down, and my prediction is that he'll submit Van either in the third or the fourth round.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Grant Dawson, $8.9K - vs. Manuel Torres
Grant Dawson and Manuel Torres are scheduled for a lightweight scrap on the UFC 323 prelims on Saturday. Dawson aims to extend his win streak while Torres looks to win back-to-back fights.
You can't look away from these finishes! 😮💨
Here's some of the best finishes from the #UFC323 prelim fighters!
[ SAT DEC 6 | 10pmET on @ESPN PPV ] pic.twitter.com/nGkHAN1bjR
— UFC (@ufc) December 4, 2025
After almost 11 months, Dawson is set to return to the Octagon, looking for his fourth consecutive win. Known for his suffocating grappling and pressure-heavy style, Dawson looked like one of UFC's most promising prospects, but he had a difficult setback against King Green in 2023, where Dawson suffered a first-round knockout loss.
Dawson was last seen in the Octagon in January at UFC 311, where he defeated Diego Ferreira by unanimous decision. Now, he's facing an extremely dangerous striker in Torres, and his grappling skills will likely need to be on full display at UFC 323.
Torres was last seen in action in March at UFC Mexico City, where he returned to the win column by finishing Drew Dober via first-round TKO. Prior to that, Torres fought in September 2024 at UFC 306, where he suffered a first-round TKO loss to Ignacio Bahamondes.
Only one of Torres’ fights has gone past the first round in his entire career, and that was back in 2018, where he edged out a split decision win over Enrique González. A natural finisher with thirteen stoppages in fifteen victories, Torres arrived in the UFC with a reputation as one of the most dangerous lightweights emerging from Mexico.
Dawson enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-2-1 and 11-1-1 in the UFC. He averages 3.20 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Dawson absorbs 2.11 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 44%. Regarding his grappling, Dawson is averaging 3.87 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Dawson has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 57%.
Torres enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3 and 4-1 in the UFC. He averages 7.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. Torres absorbs 4.20 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Torres is averaging 2.00 takedowns every 15 minutes. Torres has a takedown accuracy of 66% and a takedown defense of 88%.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Dawson has been knocked out cold by King Green, but he has improved his striking defense. Torres has knockout power and is extremely dangerous, but if Dawson can survive the first round, he's most likely going to take Torres down and tire him out. My prediction is that Dawson will beat Torres by unanimous decision.
