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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/21/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Coming off a 4-0 sweep on Friday, I'm back with four more first-inning bets and perhaps just a bit more confidence after nailing Friday's picks!
No YRFIs today; we're rolling with all NRFIs! We had a few spots where one pitcher was in a great matchup, but the other team's pitcher was in such a bad spot that I couldn't pull the trigger, so I had to settle for just four picks today. Hey, maybe we can run it back and go 4-0 again today. Now that would be something!
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, July 21, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 21, 2025)
- Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:40 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs: 8:05 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners: 9:40 pm
- Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 pm
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Jack Flaherty
- PIT: Paul Skenes
Happy Paul Skenes Day! The NRFI King brings his 20-0 undefeated NRFI record into this one to face the Tigers and another very good pitcher in Jack Flaherty.
Can Skenes finally get a win and some run support? I am less optimistic about that happening, but I think he can hold the Tigers (who are hitting just .092 in the first inning over their last ten games) at bay in the first inning.
As far as the Pirates' offense goes, they continue to struggle to score in the opening frame and have a 10-game NRFI streak intact.
Jack Flaherty in his last 2 starts:
11.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 15 K pic.twitter.com/qXWLfjnvpK
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) July 13, 2025
That bodes well for Flaherty, who comes into this one with a 15-4 NRFI record and having reclaimed some strong recent form before the break. There's a lot of juice here, but you can't look past how good Skenes and how bad the Pirates' offense have both been in the first inning.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KCR: Noah Cameron
- CHC: Ryan Brasier (opener)
The Cubs are not usually a team I target for a NRFI, as they have one of the best quartets of hitters in the lineup, one through four. However, the lefty Cameron puts Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Michael Busch on the wrong side of their splits and has been very effective this season, early in games.
Cameron has a solid 10-2 NRFI record and a very impressive 0.67 first-inning WHIP. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley, which is always a good thing for the pitchers, as we know the long ball is the ultimate NRFI killer, and Wrigley can be a launching pad when the wind is blowing out.
The Cubs will use a reliever, Ryan Brasier, as their opener for this game and then likely deploy Chris Flexen as the innings-eating long reliever. Brasier has not started a game this season, but has been very effective out of the bullpen with a 1.04 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 17 innings.
With the Royals going 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games, I like Brasier's chances of working a clean first frame and holding up his end of the deal.
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Brandon Woodruff
- SEA: George Kirby
What an awesome feel-good story it's been for Brandon Woodruff so far, as he's just mowing down hitters in his first two starts since returning from arm surgery and missing a full season and then some.
Woodruff has 18 strikeouts in his first 10 innings this season! I am not sure he can sustain that pace, but he certainly has another solid matchup today against Seattle. The Mariners are streaking, but not in a good way. They've not scored in the first inning for 10 consecutive games!
Brandon Woodruff's 10th K...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/jcjYzPuIb1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 12, 2025
The Brewers' offense has not fared all that much better, entering tonight's contest with a 1-9 YRFI record over their last ten games. George Kirby is 7-3 on NRFIs this season and was pitching quite well heading into the break after being slow to return to form after his early-season injury.
If you hate betting straights above -150, then just consider parlaying this game with the PIT-DET game and utilizing the DK NRFI parlay boost to go from +164 to +218.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: David Festa
- LAD: Shohei Ohtani
Our final NRFI of the night comes in a Dodgers game, which gives me some heartburn and could certainly make us sweat. The Dodgers are putting Ohtani on the mound, which is a great thing as he's 4-1 on NRFIs since returning to the rotation, and he has the type of dominant stuff to shut down just about any lineup for an inning.
The nerve-wracking element here is Twins youngster David Festa having to face the top of the Dodgers' lineup. Festa has fared well in the first frame so far, posting a 7-2 NRFI record; however, he has surrendered seven home runs already this season, and the Dodgers are so dangerous at home, where the ball tends to fly out of this park.
If we want to play the trends, though, L.A. is just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games and hitting just .147 in the first inning. I like Festa's stuff and I think he's better than his ERA shows, so I am willing to take a gamble on him tonight, especially since the odds on this bet are close to even money.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Reds (60%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Athletics, Braves, Cubs, White Sox (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Orioles (.359)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Angels (.435)
Conclusion
After a perfect 4-0 sweep on Friday, we’re back with four sharp NRFI bets today, aiming to stay hot and ride the momentum into Monday’s MLB slate.
Each pick is rooted in elite starting pitching, cold first-inning offenses, and advantageous ballpark conditions—hallmarks of smart NRFI betting strategy.
From Skenes’ continued dominance to intriguing matchups like Festa vs. Ohtani, today’s card is packed with value.
Check back daily for the most consistent, data-backed NRFI betting insights in MLB. Let’s chase another clean sweep! Thank you for reading, and good luck tonight!
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