8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Evan Carter, Shelby Miller, Corey Seager, Bailey Ober, more

June 17, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 12 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 12 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Evan Carter, Shelby Miller, Corey Seager, and Bailey Ober.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

It's hard to believe, but we now have almost three months of data to work with, giving fantasy managers a better chance to assess value in fantasy Risers and Fallers. Let's dig in and see what we can find!

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 15, 2025.

Evan Carter, Texas Rangers (OF)

.283/.368/.517 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 10 RBI, 5 SBs

Despite his fantasy pedigree, Carter had a disappointing 2024 season and started 2025 with Triple-A Round Rock. However, he has gotten things going since being called up, showcasing power and speed. Can the 22-year-old finally get settled in at the big leagues?

Carter's stats have been fueled by an outstanding June. He produced little when he got called up in the middle of May, but he owns a ridiculous .407/.484/.815 slash line in 31 plate appearances across June. Fantasy managers should not expect him to produce like this for the whole season, but it has been encouraging to see his skills translate.

evan carter: the kid is good pic.twitter.com/OXZZp1ETQr

— kennedi landry (@kennlandry) June 14, 2025

He hasn't had a ton of plate appearances yet this season, but things do look promising overall. He hasn't impacted the ball that hard, but has a solid 94.1 mph average exit velocity in June. He has barrelled up the ball well all season, including his rough May, and has walked almost as much as he has struck out. His expected stats are above league average as well.

Carter was a highly-touted fantasy prospect several years ago and is still just 22 years old. He brings excellent defense and speed, which should help keep him in the lineup as he figures things out at the plate. Fantasy managers may not be ready to completely trust him, but Carter is trending in the right direction.

Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (2B/OF)

.268/.361/.528 Slash Line, 7 HRs, 22 RBI

Jeff McNeil has been an uninspiring but solid fantasy option at times throughout his career. He missed the start of the season with an oblique injury but has provided career-high power in his first 144 plate appearances. Should fantasy managers expect this to persist?

McNeil has not hit the ball hard this season, and never has. However, several encouraging things stand out regarding his approach. The first is his launch angle. McNeil has a career-high 16.6-degree launch angle, over two degrees higher than his career average.

The second is his bat speed. McNeil's 70.7 mph average bat swing speed is up two mph from last season. This approach change has led to a 41.1% sweet-spot swing percentage that is among the highest in baseball. These results are supported by comments McNeil and the Mets coaching staff have made about conscious changes at the plate.

Jeff McNeil gets the party started for the @Mets with a 3-run homer 💪 pic.twitter.com/bfLuUNsmdS

— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2025

McNeil has traded batting average for power so far this season, which has worked to his benefit. He has typically been at best a batting average specialist throughout his career, but an increase in power could also help with his counting stats. McNeil could be an intriguing fantasy option if his approach change can continue.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 15, 2025.

Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks

7-10 Save Opportunities Converted, 1.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 25% Strikeout Rate, 28 2/3 IP

Veteran fantasy managers will recognize Miller's name from his early, healthy days as a starter. He is now 34 years old and has emerged as the current closer for the Diamondbacks with Justin Martinez (elbow) and A.J. Puk (elbow) both sidelined with elbow injuries.

Miller has been effective with mostly a two-pitch mix this season. He still has above-average velocity with his four-seamer at 95 mph and has induced a solid 13.3% swinging-strike rate. He has allowed hard contact with the pitch but has induced an 18-degree launch angle. This has led to a .259 batting average against.

His splitter has been a solid secondary pitch to pair with his fastball. Miller has a strong 20.5% swinging-strike rate with the pitch, with a ridiculous .095 batting average against.

There does not seem to be any immediate competition for Miller in the bullpen with both Martinez and Puk out of the picture. Miller has now led the team in save opportunities this season and is rostered in just 34 percent of leagues. He is a clear fantasy pickup for those in need of saves.

For the latest bullpen news, be sure to check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Chart series.

David Peterson, New York Mets

5-2, 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21.5% Strikeout Rate, 79 2/3 IP

David Peterson was once a fantasy prospect, but he couldn't put things together early in his career. Things have finally clicked over the past two seasons, with 2025 on pace for a career season. Should fantasy managers put complete faith in his 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 21.5% strikeout rate?

David Peterson puts the finishing touches on his first career shutout! pic.twitter.com/ainEy2zECz

— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2025

Peterson shows some interesting signs under the hood. He has allowed the hardest contact of his career, but has allowed a career-low 4.6-degree launch angle. This has minimized his damage on balls in play to a league-average .292 BABIP. He has done a good job of locating most of his pitches down in the zone.

However, he has seemingly gotten lucky with his four-seamer. Peterson has thrown the pitch in the top of the zone but has seen just a nine-degree launch angle against. Even so, the pitch has been his least effective, with its expected stats even worse than its current results. He has thrown the pitch almost 25%, which presents the opportunity for negative regression.

Peterson presents a difficult case. On the one hand, he has been successful with his approach for over one full season. On the other hand, his fastball usage does not seem sound. His SIERA, xERA, and xFIP are all roughly one run higher than his ERA. Fantasy managers could try to sell high on Peterson, but they may as well hold onto him until things go south if they can't get any takers.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 15, 2025.

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (SS)

.236/.325/.392 Slash Line, 6 HRs, 14 RBI

Seager has offered one of fantasy's highest floors on an at-bat basis for most of his career, with the only issue being injuries. Unfortunately, he has dealt with hamstring injuries and performance issues in 2025, affecting both his batting average and power. What should fantasy managers make of his career-low production?

Fortunately, there are some reassuring underlying signs. Seager's calling card of extreme velocity off the bat is still present. His 92.8 mph average exit velocity and 51.3% hard-hit rate are both in the 90th percentile of baseball. However, his ninth-percentile sweet-spot rate and .266 BABIP suggest that his results have been due to bad luck.

Additionally, his expected stats are all much higher than his current values. His Statcast profile looks more or less like it has in previous seasons, but his peripherals simply have yet to catch up.

Seager presents as a pretty clear buy-low case. Injuries will always be a risk with Seager, but his batted-ball profile does not support his current batting average or slugging percentage. Signs are there for positive regression, so fantasy managers should try to take advantage before it occurs.

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (2B)

.266/.350/.344 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 26 RBI, 15 SBs

Brice Turang made an appearance as a Fantasy Riser in Week 5. Things have slowed down a bit for him since, and his current stolen base pace is now much lower than last season, as is his 79% success rate. Is his current rate of production enough to support fantasy managers?

The good thing is that Turang is still hitting the ball harder than he ever has, with a .274 expected batting average in the 72nd percentile of baseball. The other good thing is that his sprint speed has not dropped off and is in the 90th percentile of baseball.

Unfortunately, stolen bases are partly about intent; baserunners cannot accumulate stolen bases if they don't try to steal. Even with his increased batting average, Turang does not offer a ton of fantasy value outside elite stolen bases. His current pace of ~30 stolen bases would be useful generally, but harder to justify without a ton of additional stats.

I called Turang a sell-high candidate back in Week 5. At this point, I'm not sure that fantasy managers would be able to move him now, but he definitely won't hurt them by keeping him in their rosters.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 15, 2025.

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

4-3, 4.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 17.6% Strikeout Rate, 73 2/3 IP

Ober had seemingly established himself as a high-floor fantasy starter who would provide a strong ERA and WHIP. He has been highly inconsistent in 2025 with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 17.6% strikeout rate in 15 starts and 73 2/3 IP. What is going on with Ober, and should fantasy managers be concerned?

The frustrating thing about Ober this season is that he has mixed strong starts with poor starts, ultimately negatively impacting his overall numbers. Eight of his 14 starts have gone at least five innings. He has posted a strong 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in those starts. On the other hand, his six starts of fewer than five innings resulted in a disastrous 9.17 ERA and 1.99 WHIP.

There hasn't been a particular pattern between these starts, as Ober has mixed in the good with the bad. He has turned in good starts against tough opponents and poor starts against weaker lineups.

The fact that there have essentially been two pitchers in one makes it very difficult to assess Ober. The poor starts have outweighed the good ones, but the good news is that he has still shown the ability to contribute fantasy value. The conservative decision may be to sit Ober until he gets back into a groove.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

6-2, 2.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 21.4% Strikeout Rate, 61 IP

Casey Mize's season stats look just fine upon initial glance. However, he has compiled an uninspiring 4.73 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and 20.3% strikeout rate in his last three starts, which have averaged just about 4 1/3 IP. He has never been able to put it all together despite his prospect pedigree; what should fantasy managers make of his recent performance?

A few things stand out over his three-game stretch. The first is a lack of swing-and-miss. Mize's season swinging-strike rate is 11%, but he managed just 7.3% in the last three games. He got fewer chases and allowed much more contact on pitches in the strike zone. He also allowed more walks, with an 11.6% walk rate compared to 7.0% for the season.

The second is his batted-ball profile. Mize has done a decent job limiting hard contact this season, but his control issues resulted in extremely hard contact in two of the last three starts. He allowed a poor .361 batting average against and a .444 BABIP.

Casey Mize escapes jams, but #Tigers allow 16 hits in 10-1 loss to Orioles https://t.co/zsaRkqPL5W

— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) June 12, 2025

Mize has had a relatively rough patch, but this is not unexpected over the course of a season. I would expect him to get things back on track eventually, although I would also be surprised if he finished the season with such a low ERA.

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