MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/31/2025)

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/31/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. James Wood, Rafael Devers, Bo Bichette, and more.

Saturday is another full day of MLB action with all 30 teams on the schedule. Most of the action will take place in the late afternoon with a big wave of nine games starting just after 4:00 p.m. ET and four more finishing off the day under the lights. A quick reminder before we dive in--home run props are not for scared money since predicting long balls isn't as easy as you might think. They're lots of fun and can boost your bankroll big-time when they hit, and there's not much like the feeling when your pick smashes one out of the park at long odds. We bet on long balls every day here at RotoBaller, and today's MLB games provide plenty of options to consider if you're hunting for homers.

On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 31, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to mix players from a variety of odds while leaning toward more long-shot plays. Keep that in mind when reading! You can play these picks as individual props or as part of a round-robin if you think more than one will go yard.

Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win and almost always fall into the category of long shots. Let's take a look at the matchups and environments and pinpoint some of the top home run props on the board. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the last few weeks, so let's keep the trend going this Saturday!

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/31/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, May 31:

• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
• Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
• Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
• James Wood, Washington Nationals

Bo Bichette OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bichette and the Blue Jays have lit up the Athletics pitchers and won the first two games of their series, 12-0 and 11-7. Bichette homered in the first game of the series and had two more hits and a walk on Friday night. He has been surging a little bit over the second half of the month and will be in a good spot to keep crushing this Saturday.

Bichette is 17-for-61 (.279) with a .354 wOBA and three home runs over his last 15 games. He has a 56.0% hard-hit rate and 12.0% barrel rate over that span and has been especially crushing it lately with four barrels and five hard-hit balls in his last three games.

After homering on Thursday, he has six homers on the season. All six have come against right-handed pitching, and four have been at home, including this smash from Thursday.

TOR - Bo Bichette 2-run HR (6)

📏 Distance: 383 ft
💨 EV: 104.7 mph
📐 LA: 26°
⚾️ 83.3 mph slider (ATH - RHP Anthony Maldonado)
🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks

ATH (0) @ TOR (10)
🔻 3rd#LightsUpLetsGo pic.twitter.com/fiOiz1v5cn

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) May 30, 2025

On Saturday, he'll go up against Gunnar Hoglund. The 25-year-old rookie has a 5.13 ERA, 5.40 FIP,  and 5.45 xERA. His average exit velocity is in the top 4% of the league at 92.2 miles per hour, and he also ranks in the top 6% in barrel rate among qualified pitchers.

He has allowed six home runs, three on each side of the split. Four of them have come in his 11 1/3 innings on the road. He has been hit slightly harder by right-handed hitters, who have a .419 wOBA against him.

The Athletics' bullpen is also one of the worst in the majors, and the team has been sinking quickly in the standings, losing 15 of their last 16 games and giving up at least nine runs in six of their last nine contests.

Nolan Arenado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We're turning back the clock a little bit for this pick and going with Nolan Arenado in his matchup against Patrick Corbin. As you would expect, the two veterans have a long track record against each other, and Arenado has hit Corbin hard in several of their previous matchups.

In their past meetings, Arenado is 15-for-52 (.288) against Corbin, and three of those 15 hits have been home runs. Normally, I'm not a huge BvP proponent, but there is enough history in that sample size to be significant.

Arenado comes into the matchup with a little momentum as well. He is still hitting only .236 after his slow start to the season but he does have a .305 wOBA, .151 ISO, and six home runs. Two of those home runs have come in his last eight games, including this blast on Tuesday in Baltimore.

NOLAN ARENADO MAKES A SPLASH!! 🌊 pic.twitter.com/asnAXWY31m

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 28, 2025

He has a 45.8% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over those eight games, which are big increases from his season averages of 34.5% and 5.2%, respectively. Arenado has typically hit lefties well throughout his career, and this season, he has a .294 batting average and .336 wOBA in the split.

While Arenado seems to be finding his way a little, Corbin has been scuffling in his last few starts. He has made nine starts for the Rangers this season, going 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 5.00 FIP. He was surprisingly effective in his first few outings but has given up five homers in his last three outings.

In those three starts, opponents have a 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate. Six of the nine home runs he has allowed this season have been to right-handed hitters, including four of the five he has given up in his last three starts.

Arenado's throwback prop is a good value play at +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Even though it's a long shot, there are trends in Arenado's favor as he takes on Corbin at Globe Life Park, which is usually favorable to home runs as a ballpark.

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Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+295 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Devers and the Red Sox are in Atlanta for the weekend, and the weather is forecast to be good for hitting this Saturday afternoon, with the wind blowing out at 10-15 miles per hour and a game-time temperature of 80 degrees.

After a brutally slow start to the season, Devers has been making up for lost time and settling in as the team's everyday designated hitter. He has 12 homers on the season, and half of those have come in his last 18 games. During that 18-game stretch, he is hitting .333 (22-for-66) with a .470 wOBA and .318 ISO. He has a 46.2% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.9 miles per hour over that span.

The left-handed slugger has hit 11 of his 14 homers off right-handed pitchers, and he'll be on that side of his splits on Saturday against Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach has been up and down this season, posting a 3.42 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and giving up nine homers in his 11 starts.

All nine of the home runs that Schwellenbach has surrendered have been to left-handed hitters, including this one that Devers hit off him two weeks ago in Fenway:

ABSOLUTELY CLOBBERED 💥

Rafael Devers puts the @RedSox in front with a grand slam! pic.twitter.com/7RwtHhj2cs

— MLB (@MLB) May 18, 2025

Devers is hot enough to go back to this matchup and look for another home run on Saturday, especially with such favorable daytime hitting conditions in Atlanta.

James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My final pick of the day is one of my favorite options so far this season in home run props--James Wood. Wood is having an outstanding season for the Nationals and has been absolutely demolishing the ball lately. His odds are still good value, though, despite his recent groove and favorable matchup at Chase Field.

Wood homered on Friday and now has 16 homers on the season, five of which have come in his last 12 games. In those 12 games, Wood has a .364 batting average and .511 wOBA backed up by a 58.6% hard-hit rate and 24.1% barrel rate.

He homered in two of the three games to start the Nats' road trip in Seattle and also went yard on Friday at Chase Field. His home run on Friday was slightly to the opposite field, and this moonshot from earlier this week was to straight away center field.

My God. James Wood is not human. What an absolute super star he is.

He does things only a few players can do already and he’s 22. This was a 450-foot HR to dead center. pic.twitter.com/Sci6Xm7WFJ

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) May 28, 2025

Among qualified batters, Wood ranks in the top 10 in the majors in barrels per batted ball event and the top five in hard-hit rate. He's also in the top five percentile in bat speed, xwOBA, and xSLG.

On Saturday night, he's matched up against Diamondbacks' righty Brandon Pfaadt, who has been decent overall this season but has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. Pfaadt has given up 12 homers in his 11 starts and five in his last three outings. Left-handed hitters have hit seven of the 12 homers against him and have a .425 SLG against him this season.

Wood is so dialed in that he's a great option in all fantasy formats right now, and the emerging superstar is a great home run prop bet at this number as well. He's only 22 but is already showcasing that he'll be one of the best power hitters in the league for many years to come.

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