Every AFC Team's Most Overvalued Dynasty Fantasy Football Player

John's breakdown of overvalued dynasty fantasy football players for every AFC team. Which AFC Dynasty players are overrated and should be traded away?

The 16 teams that comprise the AFC all have players that I don't think are worth, on their own, what you could get for them in trades as compensation. Not all of them are bad players, though. In fact, some of them are quite good. "Most overvalued" is a relative thing.

And since there's not much point in telling you that certain players are bad, especially if no one wants them in dynasty, I'll be sticking to fantasy-relevant players that have good trade value and aren't just backups or clearly not talented enough to provide your roster with good scoring production.

This will lead to some good players being on the list, but that's the point. It's harder to let go of good players, and that leads a lot of fantasy managers to hold on to the assets for too long when some red flags do exist that suggest that they could be overvalued. With that in mind, let's dive into each AFC team's most overvalued players, among those that aren't just terrible fantasy assets.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills - TE Dalton Kincaid

Apparently, it was controversial to say that Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta was clearly better than Kincaid in the middle of the 2023 season, despite it being obvious very quickly.

Usually, for players with high draft capital and thus high expectations, especially those on teams with productive passers like Bills quarterback Josh Allen, it takes a very visible and equally terrible play to make fantasy managers turn on them.

DALTON KINCAID WITH THE BIGGEST DROP OF HIS LIFE...pic.twitter.com/hmBkRMxKXM

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 27, 2025

I didn't write my thoughts down then, and I wasn't working for any sports-related website, but when I was developing my film study habits, I watched and compared Kincaid and LaPorta's tape, and read about their histories, and I was dumbfounded that an NFL team could think that Kincaid was the better player.

Well, now we know that he's terrible. He brings nothing to the table, and is just serviceable, like his fellow TE, Dawson Knox. He didn't show any signs of development in Year 2, and his "elite hands" completely regressed to the garbage they are now. He's also not a very good route-runner or separator and never was.

I can't imagine why anyone would want him in their dynasty leagues, but that gives you a chance to dump him. And you should because he sucks.

Miami Dolphins - WR Jaylen Waddle

2024 was supposed to be a big comeback season for Waddle. After his monster 2022 year that was propped up by unsustainable efficiency and (apparently non-repeatable) long yards-after-catch touchdown plays, Waddle regressed in 2023, and in 2024, rather than bouncing back, he regressed even further.

The entire Miami offense took a step back, and with defenses selling out to stop the deep passes, the Dolphins opted instead to basically run everything through their star running back, De'Von Achane. Tight end Jonnu Smith also was a surprise fantasy star and was targeted heavily by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

jaylen waddle went from rising superstar to a gadget player 💔pic.twitter.com/Tm1GXKTjTY

— 🏄🏽 (@MIK3MCDANIEL) December 12, 2023

Tagovailoa's average depth of target on his throws continues to regress, and while Waddle was still highly efficient on a yards per route run basis, the big plays just aren't there like they used to be. The passing offense isn't what it once was, and it looks more like Waddle's monster season was a fluke, and the exception rather than the norm.

I'd have sold him off after his 2023 season, but 2024 should have given you even more reason to offload him. Tyreek Hill won't be there forever, true, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't just cut your losses while you can. The way things are going, Waddle is the fourth priority in that team's passing game, which is not great Bob!

New England Patriots - TE Hunter Henry

I'm not sure there's any pass-catcher on the Patriots from last season that's exciting to own in dynasty fantasy football. Henry seems to be more highly thought of than he should be. He had some solid games at times last season, but it was more a result of quarterback Drake Maye having no one else to throw the ball to.

Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have caught more conversions (53) than any TE group outside of KC (59) and Baltimore (53)

A big chunk of those have come on out/sail routes, where Drake Maye has maximized his big targets with aggressiveness, anticipation, and accuracy pic.twitter.com/BTLtAPihlE

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 7, 2024

I believe Maye is an excellent quarterback. I also believe Henry is an aging TE who was starting to lose snaps and volume to backup TE Austin Hooper. Hooper inexplicably started closing the gap toward the end of last season. I think offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt started to realize that Henry wasn't as good as Pelt thought he was.

So yeah, I'd be selling Henry for a late round pick in rookie drafts, or some young dart throw.

New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson

To make it clear, it's not his fault he's on this list, it's the Jets' fault. I would put running back Breece Hall here, considering his lackluster performance last season, but I'm strongly suspicious that the "lower-body injury" he had in the preseason was his surgically repaired knee starting to act up, and that it bothered him all season.

I just don't know if he'll heal fully, but he was nowhere near 100 percent.

Robert Saleh says that Breece Hall is at Jets OTAs and working on the side as he deals with a lower body issue:

"Nothing that we're concerned about." pic.twitter.com/akuONYRdna

— Jets Videos (@snyjets) June 4, 2024

On to Wilson. I don't have any criticisms of his game, but I have no confidence in the Jets' ability to figure out their quarterback situation. If they draft former Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, I will completely change my tune here because he's my QB1. But if they don't, and continue to deal with signal-caller woes, I'll still be lower on Wilson than most.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

He had a lot of touchdowns last season, but there are two reasons why I want nothing to do with him anymore. The first is that, at the beginning of the season, the Ravens showed us they have no interest in passing much if their defense holds and the run game works. The two awful gooseegg performances he gave us were a direct result of this.

The second is that the team has a hideous rotation of three tight ends that they like to run. For some reason, they believe they're better off giving TEs Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar significant snaps.

Don't ask me why. These aren't ideal for Andrews, and though he had a good season for fantasy in 2024, he's entirely TD-dependent, a fact that is masked by the tight end position mostly being trash for fantasy football.

Ravens TE Mark Andrews’ receiving snap count this season:

Week 1 - 38 snaps
Week 2 - 27 snaps
Week 3 - 6 snaps pic.twitter.com/hja567s5N5

— Ravens Nation 𝙇𝙄𝙑𝙀 (@LIVERavenNation) September 23, 2024

Go look at Week 12's snap count report from Nathan Jahnke at Pro Football Focus. Andrews running just 15 routes the whole game and taking less snaps than WR Rashod Bateman was so, so ugly. And that was with Kolar recovering from a broken arm.

The Ravens pass defense was porous in 2024. If it's not in 2025, I'll start getting scared. I'm already not interested in Andrews at all moving forward unless we see his usage change. This late in his career, it seems like it won't. He's still a good TD threat, but I have cold feet.

Cincinnati Bengals - RB Chase Brown

I don't dislike him as a player, nor do I think he didn't have an excellent season and earned all of his yards last year. But late-round RBs tend to not have long, productive careers in the NFL, for whatever reason. And Brown's being valued as if he'll completely dominate the backfield touches for his team again as he did in 2024.

Again, I should note that it was between Brown, quarterback Joe Burrow, and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins that I wanted to choose from. I'm not interested in, or

Cleveland Browns - WR Jerry Jeudy

He's a good receiver, but the ridiculous numbers he put up for a few games were more the result of quarterback Jameis Winston's gunslinger mentality and a few soft matchups than it was of his own skill. He's ranked similarly in dynasty with players like Jameson Williams and Jordan Addison, and I'd rather have either of those two than Jeudy.

In his first four seasons, he logged a total of just five games with 20 or more PPR fantasy points. He's easily lapped there by the other guys he's ranked close to. And he's now stuck on a team with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is one of the worst in the league, tore his Achilles tendon last season, and re-tore it again in the offseason.

Cleveland is stuck with Watson for at least a few more years, which will amount to more years of Jeudy's prime wasted. There was and remains to be no reason to hang on to him any longer.

Pittsburgh Steelers - WR George Pickens 

No matter how the situation changes, Pickens is one of the few players who consistently disappoints despite his abundance of talent. This is largely due to his personality, which, in my opinion, is completely insane.

Multiple crash-outs on national television, multiple fights with other players and fans later, and an endless amount of whining about not getting all the targets he wants later, and he logged 900 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games in 2024.

george pickens is a terrible human being 😭😭 pic.twitter.com/chUM4BEGXg

— tag! (@taggartkent) November 17, 2024

He has potentially the worst attitude of any receiver in the league and is possibly its biggest diva. And it's actually impacted his production and play, as he's often given up mid-play to do things like fight with his defensive back.

Must see: Required viewing for George Pickens apologists. Drops. Arguing with Steelers fans. Needing multiple teammates to talk to him about getting his head in the game. Not a WR1. Can’t pay him. Sorry. pic.twitter.com/bKBYswgldr

— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) January 5, 2025

Everything I've seen on the field shows a WR that doesn't care about winning, only his own personal fame, glory, and usage. He's also on an extremely run-heavy offense (the 5th-most run-happy team in the league) with a mediocre quarterback that might not return and another bad QB to replace him if he walks.

Pickens' is viewed as having a much higher ceiling than he actually does.

AFC South

Houston Texans - RB Joe Mixon

Mixon will be 29 years old before the 2025 NFL season starts. He had a resurgent year with the Texans 1,325 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. This was largely due to his massive volume, though. He averaged under 4.2 yards per carry, and was absolutely spammed touches by former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.

Slowik was fired after being a hot head coaching candidate after his 2023 year. He tried his best to imitate the Shanahan offense, which is extremely run-heavy, yet it didn't work out. New Texans OC Nick Caley will surely have a different game play, especially if he doesn't want to get fired quickly.

Nick Caley IMMEDIATELY brings up building the scheme around what players can DO.

“We are not pounding a square peg into a round hole”

LOVE to hear that after last year pic.twitter.com/7G4yTBW9IG

— Jacob (@TexansJacob) February 13, 2025

Slowik tried to pound a square peg into a round hole by giving Mixon the ball a billion times, and it started to crumble toward the end of the season. Mixon failed to eclipse five yards per carry more than twice in his last 12 games. He can still perform well in fantasy if he's given an absurd workload, but it's just not good for the offense overall.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had his struggles, which contributed to Slowik's firing, but th

Indianapolis Colts - QB Anthony Richardson 

I have no faith that Richardson will develop into a good starting quarterback in the NFL. I have close to zero faith that he'll even improve to become an acceptable passer. While he can make jaw-dropping plays that, in a vacuum, seem to be indicative of elite quarterback play, his misses on the most basic and easy throws are deeply concerning.

Bad decision by Anthony Richardson and his pass is picked off by Tremaine Edmunds. pic.twitter.com/bLo2mMwvcg

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 22, 2024

He makes some of the most absurd and bone-headed decisions of any QB in the league. You can't succeed in the NFL making plays like this. Of course, he has elite rushing upside and arm talent for a quarterback, but it's often what's between the ears that's most important for a signal-caller.

The success of poor athletes with below-average arm strength, like Drew Brees, is a testament to this. If it's true that his poor and inconsistent throwing mechanics are the root cause of his troubles, those are definitely coachable. But in pressure situations, it's too easy for us, as humans, to go back to what's familiar.

I'm much more interested in what picks and players I could get selling someone the idea of what A-Rich could be than I am in the QB himself.

Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence

I would have chosen tight end Evan Engram for this slot, but as of the time of writing this, I just heard news that the team is planning on releasing him. This comes the same day that the team also announced it is letting go of wide receiver Christian Kirk.

That leaves Lawrence and running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby as the only fantasy-relevant players that are ranked at a level that even warrants consideration here (i.e., inside the top-100-ish of player on FantasyPros preseason rankings).

New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen worked wonders for Tampa Bay's run game in 2024, so it's hard to knock the two backs, especially since neither of them are in the top-100.

Trevor Lawrence at the Jags facility pic.twitter.com/nxpJGFwxRx

— Kyle, a Madson (@KyleAMadson) March 6, 2025

Kirk and Engram did help T-Law produce when they were both healthy. Now they'll be gone. The team still has Brian Thomas Jr., who I can't say is overrated because I told you all to buy him urgently after just Week 3 of last season, and he became a league-winner.

Lawrence's lack of weapons will ding his upside. It may take some time for the Jags to re-bolster their receiving corps, too. WR Gabe Davis is not good at all. Thomas will have massive upside, especially in Coen's elite offense, but Lawrence's value could take a hit unless Coen is just that elite.

I'm of the opinion that he's not even overrated much, if at all. But to call Thomas overrated seems like a criminal act, so I'm not gonna do it here.

Tennessee Titans - WR Calvin Ridley 

I'm not convinced that the Titans will be able to solve their quarterback woes with Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. And it doesn't look like they'll be taking by QB1, Jaxson Dart, in the 2025 NFL Draft. Therefore, I believe Ridley will remain in his death trap of mediocrity over the next one or two seasons until his inevitable age-related decline occurs.

He's overpaid and underutilized in an offense that can't move the ball consistently. He'll turn 31 in late December, too. What could have been is always interesting to ponder, but we're more worried about what will be. And what will happen is unlikely to be great.

AFC West

Denver Broncos - RB Javonte Williams

Williams is completely and totally cooked. It was controversial to say, before the 2024 season, that Williams' knee injury ruined him. The common belief was that ACL tears just take a year to recover from, and everything will be fine.

But trying to pretend that Williams' injury was "just an ACL tear" and not a "tear to his ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner", with other damage, was what should have been controversial.

JW was awful in 2024. He had no burst, was slow, failed to break tackles consistently, wasn't elusive, and didn't have the power he showed previously. He seemed like a breakout candidate before his ACL tear, though he didn't put together super-impressive campaigns before then, anyway.

He's never averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in a season in his career, and after the tear, his efficiency dropped by nearly one yard per rush.

Javonte Williams continues to run with undisciplined eyes and a touch of impatience. Ends up chasing space that disappears by the time he arrives, like a bad game of whack-a-mole. pic.twitter.com/rBH04QPzvD

— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) September 29, 2021

Combine this with problems with his vision and decision-making that have been present since his rookie season, and you have someone that you shouldn't want on any of your dynasty fantasy football rosters.

Kansas City Chiefs - RB Isiah Pacheco

Despite his poor season ever since his return from his broken leg injury early in the season, Pacheco still has solid value in dynasty leagues. He seems set to join the long list of late-round running backs that don't have many seasons of good production in the NFL. He was forced into a committee with RB Kareem Hunt, who was signed off the street.

Isiah Pacheco runs like he’s angry at the ground 😡 pic.twitter.com/nu3AixlFGL

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) March 4, 2025

But he angry runs. I'm conflicted because I think he can return to form, I just don't know if the Chiefs will stick with a committee RB room moving forward. It would make sense. A lot of teams try to reduce their RBs' chances of getting injured this way.

Los Angeles Chargers - RB J.K. Dobbins

This year's running back class is absolutely stacked, and while that's getting a lot of attention, what is getting less coverage is the backs that will be driven out and replaced by the incoming talent.

Now, RB isn't a big need for the Chargers, but even if they draft one in the later rounds, there are so many gems at the position that they could stumble their way into someone that could earn legitimate volume, even if L.A. decides to retain Dobbins.

JK Dobbins is back in the end zone!

Chargers lead 37-7.

📺: #LACvsNE on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/RCxb1MKnfP

— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2024

Lost in his workhorse season was the fact that he averaged 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in eight of his 13 games, so well over half of them. He scored nine rushing touchdowns and caught 32 passes for 153 yards, which buoyed his overall fantasy production, but overall, it was an inefficient season for Dobbins.

I have my own rather obscure theories, but it's likely that his serious injury history impacted his athleticism negatively. He looked a lot better early in his career, which isn't surprising. He tore his ACL, LCL, severely damaged his meniscus, tore his hamstring off the bone, and ruptured his Achilles tendon, all in his left leg.

He also happened to sprain the knee in the same leg. Playing through injuries before they're fully healed is commonplace in the NFL. Googling "[X Player] Injury History" shows another underreported fact of life for NFL players -- often, one of their legs sustains a long chain of serious injuries. The idea that they fully heal and just go back to work with no problems simply isn't true.

Injury histories for Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and J.K. Dobbins (number of injuries and locations, not always complete charts, but pulled from DraftSharks). I have some theories as to how players continually injure the same leg again and again. pic.twitter.com/8Xv5Gbl1aD

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 7, 2025

Whether it's that players injure their non-dominant legs more often because they're weaker or that they get injured at some point in their career, play through it, and start developing recurring issues to the same leg, I guess we don't know. Still, it's hard to imagine Dobbins not having issues with his left leg that he needs constant physical therapy and training for.

Most players play through serious pain and significant injuries. That's life in the NFL, and part of the reason why serious and long injury histories can cause players to decline earlier in their careers. Ask any athlete who's had major injuries before. They often never heal.

I don't think we should assume that Dobbins is "all the way back" and that he has multiple highly productive years ahead of him. I don't think that's the case.

Las Vegas Raiders - No One 

There isn't anyone on the Raiders that I can confidently say is overrated. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers just had a historic campaign, and a TE with his size and skillset (that of a wide receiver basically) is one of the biggest mismatch machines in the NFL.

I am seriously worried that new head coach Pete Carroll could ruin him, but given that the team is reportedly trying to trade backup TE Michael Mayer, I'm much more optimistic.

Brock Bowers TD to close out his rookie season‼️

112 catches / 1,194 yds / 5 TD’s

WHAT A ROOKIE SEASON #DGD pic.twitter.com/TtdPw31xSA

— Thumser (@JeffreyThumser) January 6, 2025

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is the only other player currently on the team even ranked close to the top-100, but I can't say he's overrated, because he's actually a pretty solid receiver. He's not a true WR1, but he's also not ranked like it. And if the quarterback situation improves, he could have some nice seasons left in him.

No one else really registers as having any real value, which isn't a surprise, considering how bad the team was last year. Meyers played well given the situation, Bowers played phenomenally, and no other skill-position player is likely to see any significant production down the road. I couldn't pick someone to call "overrated" in good conscience.

Hopefully the Raiders get a good quarterback so Bowers can continue his elite production for many years to come, and Meyers can finally get credit for the receiver he is.

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