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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. His RB lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
I may be crazy, but I'm no ordinary fool. Right now, with a fantasy championship birth on the line, there is no back I'd rather have in my fantasy lineup than Chase Brown. That includes Saquon Barkley. There's no way Joe Burrow is going to try the "Tush Push."
Brown and Barkley, for that matter, find themselves in elite company - running backs with that "must-start" status from here on out. The only other backs that are in that tier heading into fantasy football semi-finals are Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Josh Jacobs (more on him in a moment). One injury of note is that David Montgomery was ruled out for the season after tearing his MCL during the Lions' loss to the Bills.
RotoBaller is here to help fantasy football managers make those tough lineup decisions with our Week 16 starts and sits at the running back position.
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Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
James Conner keeps churning out the production as the weather gets colder and the games become more meaningful. Conner has now put together back-to-back weeks in which he has produced more than 22 fantasy points, including a 30.8-point performance against the Patriots last week, where he averaged 6.9 yards per carry on his way to 110 rushing yards and a pair of touchdown runs.
Dashing through the end zone, in a one-horse open sleigh, over the fields we go, @JamesConner_ laughing all the way#ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/3GspjfojFb
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 15, 2024
Conner has registered double-digit fantasy production in 11 of 14 contests this season (one was 9.9), and heading into Week 16, the Cardinals workhorse back finds himself as the RB10 in fantasy with 224.4 fantasy points and an average of 16 fantasy points per game. Conner is not only 27 yards away from back-to-back 1000-yard rushing seasons, but his 973 rushing yards sit ninth in the NFL.
How has Conner found his fantasy production? Conner's 568 yards after contact are the sixth-most this season. He averages 2.62 yards after contact per attempt while forcing a league-best 62 missed tackles thus far.
With Conner's recent success, a matchup against a Panthers team that has allowed a league-high 28.44 fantasy points per game to the running back this season has to get fantasy managers excited. Carolina has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns through 14 contests, so if I were a betting man, I would bet on Conner to add to that rushing total this week.
Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
Josh Jacobs has nuked the Packers' passing game. It's bad enough that we are dealing with start and sit questions for Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton. Did I miss anyone? But, to watch Jacobs rush for 11 scores in the last seven contests, oh my. Right now, Jacobs is this Packers offense; I'm fading every Packers pass-catcher until further notice.
Since Week 7, only Saquon Barkley (204) and Jahmyr Gibbs (182) have produced more fantasy points for their managers than Jacobs and his 178.4. Over those nine weeks, Jacobs averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game, while Barkley and his 22.7 averaged more. Two very good reasons why Jacobs is a must-start are production and volume. We see the production, but Jacobs has had 18 or more carries in six of his last seven contests, resulting in six 20-plus point performances over that period.
I'm not sure if this week's game script will involve Jacobs getting the ball again on nine of the first 10 plays, but I do know that the Saints have allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs on the ground this season, the second-most. New Orleans is allowing 23.71 fantasy points per game against opposing backs this season, a number that is certainly going to increase here in Week 16.
Josh Jacobs got the ball on 9 of 10 plays on the @Packers opening drive. He ended it with a TD 💪
📺: #GBvsSEA on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BIe0i3GeGg— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2024
Jerome Ford - RB, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Some more prominent names may be available, but if you need a running back and are searching the waiver wire for help, check to see if Jerome Ford is available. On Sunday, Nick Chubb started looking pretty good against the Chiefs until he broke his foot. When Chubb exited, that opened the door once again for Ford, and he produced, albeit when no one started him.
Ford replaced an injured Chubb and broke off a 62-yard touchdown run while adding another 22 yards on his other six rushing attempts. Remember that when Chubb was on the IR, Ford was productive in his opportunities. Between Weeks 1 through 4, Ford had 10 or more fantasy points in three of those contests, including an 18.9-point performance opening weekend.
Jerome Ford said "SEE YA!" @Browns | @FedEx pic.twitter.com/mBsJ2Ltg2n
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Ford is positioning himself as a potential league-winner for fantasy managers as we head into the semi-finals. This week, Ford faces a Bengals defensive unit that has allowed 319 rushing yards and 166 receiving yards on 17 receptions to opposing backs over the last four weeks.
When you add those total yards up and throw in three rushing touchdowns, that works out to an average of 27.83 fantasy points against per game, the fifth-most. With no one expected to cut into Ford's volume, Ford will once again look to dodge Bengals defenders on his way to the end zone.
Week 16 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Rico Dowdle - RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a birth in the fantasy football championship on the line, I am looking to avoid risk the best I can. That also includes avoiding bad matchups whenever possible. Such is the case this week with Rico Dowdle as the Dallas Cowboys head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers.
Vita Vea is a bad man, we all know that. We also know that over the last four weeks, Tampa has allowed 13.90 fantasy points per game, second only to Detroit's 11.28 in fantasy futility against the running back position. Over that time, Tampa has allowed just 257 total yards, 184 on the ground, and just a single score.
The recent competition, or lack thereof, has helped the Buccaneers' stat line, but the way that Baker Mayfield has been performing as of late, Dowdle may see his game script flipped. Volume slowly disappears as CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson become more involved as the Cowboys play catchup in this one.
Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Since returning in Week 13, Pacheco has produced fantasy outings of 5.9, 8.1, and 5.7 points. That's an average of 6.6 fantasy points per game. For perspective, Sincere McCormick (9.7), Ray Davis (8.2), Jaleel McLaughlin (7.9), Jaylen Warren (7.4), Tank Bigsby (7.3), and Kendre Miller (6.9) are all outperforming Pacheco over the same period.
Looking at Week 15 and the Chiefs backfield split, both Pacheco and Kareem Hunt saw a snap share of 37%. Hunt and Pacheco each had 13 carries and one reception, while Hunt had an additional target. Kansas City isn't concerned about personal achievements; they want to get to the playoffs with that No. 1 seed and in search of the NFL's first three-peat.
Notable backfield snap share splits from Week 15:
Isaac Guerendo📈
Jerome Ford📈
Tyjae Spears📈
Kendre Miller📈
Ty Johnson📈
Tony Pollard📉
Isiah Pacheco📉 pic.twitter.com/MPM1ANW08R— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) December 16, 2024
Considering the backfield split and the matchup, it's hard to envision a scenario in which Pacheco hits double digits for fantasy managers. Houston is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points on a per-game basis, with 18.09. If you split that evenly, that is just over nine fantasy points. Simply put, better options are available, with less risk and more favorable matchups ahead.
Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
No team in the NFL has done a better job at frustrating fantasy managers this season with running back decisions than the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City enters Week 16 allowing just 15.26 fantasy points per game, the fewest in the NFL. That is two points fewer than the next closest team, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs have allowed 885 rushing yards this season through 14 games, 63.2 per contest, and just 292 receiving yards to the position, both also league-bests.
Mixon started the season like a man on a mission. Coming into Week 16, he sits 90 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards, which would be the fifth time in his nine-year career that he has hit that milestone. Mixon ran for 100 yards in five of his first six contests to start the season. However, over the last five weeks, he hit the century mark just twice.
It's not easy to sit a running back with 12 total touchdowns, so I get fantasy managers' refusal to sit him this week. Consider this more of a temper-your-expectations inclusion this week. When firing up Mixon in your lineups, make sure to add some solid floor plays to help mitigate the potential risk from this matchup.
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