2024 FFPC Dynasty Startup Rookie ADP Analysis

Kyle Lindemann takes a look at the 10 earliest-drafted fantasy football rookies in FFPC dynasty startup drafts and determines their outlooks for the 2024 season.

Fantasy football season is gearing up, and it's never too early to dive into those Average Draft Position (ADP) reports. The sharks in high-stakes leagues are already circling in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) waters, crafting their seasonal strategies. In this breakdown, I’m zeroing in on some fresh ADP trends for rookies in their 2024 dynasty startup drafts.

Today, I'm looking at many of the rookies in FFPC dynasty startup drafts. Sure, the draft landscape will shift as we inch closer to training camps and the 2024 NFL season, but snagging a sneak peek at where many of these rookies are currently getting picked is like getting the inside scoop at a fantasy football feast.

These ADP insights are pulled from the FFPC's FantasyPros Championship leagues over at the FFPC, where the stakes are as high as the competitive spirit. Whether you're into live or slow drafts, this format's calling your name with its Superflex format featuring full PPR and tight-end premium scoring, alongside beefy 20-player rosters with 10-player starting lineups.

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• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
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Fantasy Football Rookie ADP Early Check-In: Potential FFPC Targets and Pitfalls

Hitting on the right rookies is an important part of any dynasty startup draft as you are looking to add the cornerstone pieces of your team to contend for many years to come. However, knowing how many rookies to take and what rookies you should target is an underappreciated skill.

While you can certainly contend for a championship in Year 1 of the league with rookies on your roster, knowing your strategy -- whether to win now with older players or to play the long game with younger players -- is the most important of knowing if you should be drafting rookies early in your startup draft or not. Here are the 10 highest-drafted rookies in FFPC dynasty startup drafts (as of June 8, 2024) and their potential outlooks for 2024.

QB Caleb Williams - CHI (8.8 overall ADP): The No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft steps into as good of a situation as any QB drafted first overall in 40-plus years since the Baltimore (Indianapolis) Colts drafted John Elway and traded him to the Denver Broncos. Williams has a solid supporting cast around him in RB D'Andre Swift, WR DJ Moore, WR Keenan Allen, and rookie WR Rome Odunze to go alongside TE Cole Kmet. Add in a decent enough offensive line and it's understandable why expectations in Chicago will be high this season.

Williams has everything you want from a rookie quarterback in real life and for fantasy. Having said that, quarterback evaluation is difficult. While the odds suggest that Williams has to at least be serviceable at the NFL level, none of us know for sure. Williams offers a decent rushing floor for fantasy but doesn't quite have the same ceiling as other quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, or Jayden Daniels, whom he is usually drafted ahead of. If you draft Williams in the first round of your rookie draft, you're likely playing the long game.

From @SportsCenter: What we’ve seen from Caleb Williams and the Bears offense ahead of mandatory minicamp this week + Hard Knocks! pic.twitter.com/TXCsAOn9JY

— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) June 2, 2024

WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - ARI (12.6): It's awfully hard not to feel optimistic about Harrison Jr. He checks every box you want as a wide receiver prospect and steps into a situation with a good, established QB in Kyler Murray throwing him the ball. He could see the most targets on the team in 2024. While it does feel like MHJ is going pretty high in startups compared to other heralded WRs in seasons past like Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson, we've gotten a lot better as a community at identifying breakout WRs. It also comes with the realization that rookie WRs are often great bets in fantasy due to their ceilings in the second half of their rookie seasons. It wouldn't be fair to say that Marvin Harrison Jr. is a foolproof, 100% can't-miss type of NFL prospect, but he's as close as we're gonna get.

QB Jayden Daniels - WAS (21.7): Kliff Kingsbury steps in as the offensive coordinator for the Commanders for the 2024 season. While the oddsmakers suggest that Bears QB Caleb Williams is a better long-term player in dynasty than Daniels, one could argue that Daniels has a higher ceiling in a single season due to his potential rushing upside.

Last year at LSU, Daniels won the Heisman Trophy after combining for nearly 5,000 total yards and 50 touchdowns. He's got the potential to set the fantasy world on fire, but for dynasty purposes, there is a risk to his career (see Justin Fields). Daniels' 21.7 ADP is tough because in dynasty you need to stay liquid and focus on floor to avoid the bottom dropping out on player values, but his potential top-three upside at the QB position can't be ignored.

New OC Kingsbury ran a lot of fast-paced, heavy RPO offenses when he was Kyler Murray's head coach in Arizona and there's an excellent chance we will see more of the same in Washington. Since 2014, there have been six quarterbacks to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season in college who started at least 16 games during their first two seasons in the NFL. Those QBs averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game while finishing as a top-12 QB or better in 63.5% of the weeks they played. Daniels is set to start in Week 1 in 2024 and could make some serious waves for fantasy purposes immediately.

WR Malik Nabers - NYG (24.4): Some are worried about the Giants' long-term quarterback situation and understandably so. However, Nabers is the clear alpha in this team's pass-catching corps and the best way for the Giants to move the chains and score points this fall is going to be through their rookie WR.

He's such an explosive wide receiver who can win in the short areas of the field. While a YAC monster, Nabers also has the skill set to beat defenses deep on any given play. Nabers caught 89 balls for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs during his final season at LSU.

Just a reminder that Malik Nabers will be a foundational WR despite the landing spot pic.twitter.com/aHnrbxxA4l https://t.co/P8xbhqPTdr

— Dynasty Dad (@DynastyDadFF) May 30, 2024

WR Rome Odunze - CHI (36.3): Another talented WR to hit this year's rookie market, Odunze steps into a situation in Chicago where he's going to have to fend off DJ Moore and Keenan Allen for targets. Long-term, his outlook is great being that he will be attached to rookie QB Caleb Williams for the foreseeable future. Allen is a free agent after the 2024 season and Odunze could easily slide into the No. 2 role alongside Moore. Odunze finished his final college season at Washington with 92 receptions for 1,640 yards and 13 TDs.

QB Drake Maye - NE (44.2): The whole "Drake Maye vs. J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix" is going to tell us a lot about the nature vs. nurture debate when it comes to quarterbacks over the next few years. It's pretty clear that McCarthy's situation with HC Kevin O'Connell in the Minnesota offense with all those weapons and Nix with HC Sean Payton are better situations for fantasy production than Maye's currently.

Nonetheless, the Patriots turned over a new leaf this offseason after attempting to sign free-agent WR Calvin Ridley before he got a massive offer from the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots went all offense with every pick except for one in the draft and nabbed Maye, who is almost a full two rounds cheaper than Jayden Daniels and makes him a pretty big dynasty value at this point.

QB J.J. McCarthy - MIN (45.6): How soon does McCarthy see the field? While it's pretty clear that Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will start Week 1, the Vikings brought in QB Sam Darnold this offseason to be the team's starter and mentor McCarthy. McCarthy's prospect evaluation was a difficult one. He did everything that Michigan asked of him in college, but it never asked him to do too much. One of the biggest mistakes we make in scouting prospects every year is failing to realize that just because a prospect wasn't asked to do something in college, it means they can't do it in the pros.

McCarthy is an athletic signal-caller who has plenty of potential to score fantasy points with his legs, but he's barely 21 years old. How soon does he get under center? McCarthy is a fine investment for dynasty purposes at this point given all of the pieces around him in Minnesota: WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson, RB Aaron Jones, and a solid offensive line. Along with HC Kevin O'Connell calling the plays, it feels hard to imagine that McCarthy fails given the great situation he's in.

WR Xavier Worthy - KC (62.5): The fastest 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine, Worthy turned heads after he ran a blazing 4.21 time in Indianapolis and was all the talk of the NFL Combine. He measured in a little undersized at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, but Worthy brings some much-needed deep speed back to Kansas City since WR Tyreek Hill was traded.

Worthy doesn't come without warts. He produced best as a freshman in college and it's fair to question how a player considered so fast at 4.21 didn't account for more big plays in college. There is some risk to Worthy, but his high-end outcome is in a similar role to what Hill was in Kansas City. He will face some competition for targets with WR Marquise Brown, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice, and WR Mecole Hardman Jr., but head coach Andy Reid will figure out ways to get the ball in Worthy's hands.

Xavier Worthy can run the full route tree. This is from his Pro Day which was absolute fire 🔥pic.twitter.com/di0bai2uJ1

— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) May 27, 2024

WR Brian Thomas Jr. - JAC (65.0): Another prospect not without risk, but who has a high-ceiling potential type of outcome. Thomas crushed the NFL Combine and showcased some elite athleticism with a 9.97 Relative Athletic Score after measuring 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds and running a 4.34 40-yard dash time.

While speed isn't everything for wide receivers, Thomas brings an important deep-speed element to the Jaguars offense that has greatly been missing. He will compete for targets in a crowded pass-catching room alongside WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, and WR Gabe Davis. Thomas only had one big year in college in 2023 and that was while getting to play alongside WR Malik Nabers and catching passes from QB Jayden Daniels. Nonetheless, the potential for him to become the Jaguars' WR1 is there.

RB Jonathon Brooks - CAR (68.0): A player who would probably be going a lot higher had he not suffered a torn ACL late in the 2023 season, Brooks is a complete back and should eventually take over the Panthers backfield and have it all to himself. New head coach Dave Canales did some great things as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last year with RB Rachaad White and there is plenty of optimism for Brooks provided he can start playing in Week 1.

The Panthers offense needs to be a lot better in 2024 compared to last year, but Brooks is barely 21 years old and doesn't have much tread on his tires. There's some risk here if QB Bryce Young can't be fixed, but you've got the potential for five-plus high-end running back seasons if Brooks is the complete three-down back that many scouts feel he is.

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