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Once a fantasy baseball draft gets going, it's all too easy to fall into the trap of looking at a guy's numbers and trusting that's who he is. In truth, just as many players perform to their 30th or 70th percentiles as their 50th. You can't always believe what you see.
Three examples on 2024 draft boards are Jose Leclerc, Anthony Santander, and Andres Gimenez. All three are perceived as known quantities who will roughly repeat their 2023 performances, but that's not a particularly likely outcome for any of them.
So, will they be better or worse? Let's find out!
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Jose Leclerc (RP, TEX) ADP: 221.78
Fantasy managers want three things from closers: saves, strikeouts, and favorable ratios. Texas manager Bruce Bochy recently said there was a "strong possibility" of Leclerc opening the season as Texas' primary closer, a role he held during the club's World Series run.
Bochy is an old-school guy and Leclerc won him a ring, so he'll probably have a decent leash despite David Robertson's presence on the roster. Texas projects as a solid club, so save opportunities should be plentiful.
Assuming Leclerc has the job, his dominant stuff should take care of the rest. Leclerc features four pitches: fastball, slider, cutter, and change. All four contributed to his 28.8% K% and 2.68 ERA over 57 IP in 2023.
His fastball rates well above average with a 12.7% SwStr% and 50.6% Zone%, getting Leclerc ahead in the count or putting hitters away as needed. The offering also has a high spin rate, clocking in at 2,543 RPM last season. High-spin fastballs lend themselves to weak airborne contact, giving us a reason to believe Leclerc's 3.16 xERA over his 4.72 xFIP last year.
Leclerc's slider was a fantastic putaway pitch with a 22.3% SwStr% even if its 33% Zone% and 32.9% chase rate were underwhelming. This pitch is why Leclerc walks more batters than he'd like (12% BB% last season), but the strikeout upside cannot be underestimated.
His cutter works as a second, better fastball with a 13% SwStr% and 53.9% Zone% that gets Leclerc ahead or puts hitters away as needed. Finally, his changeup excels with a 40.7% chase rate and 17.7% SwStr% despite a low 33.8% Zone%.
Leclerc is the closer for a good team with strikeout stuff, and we cannot ask for any more in fantasy. He's a Champ at his current price outside of the top 200.
Anthony Santander (OF, BAL) ADP: 136.90
Santander was an important member of the Orioles last season, slashing .257/.325/.472 with 28 HRs in 656 PAs. It was a virtual repeat of his 2022 campaign, so fantasy managers expect something similar from the 29-year-old in 2024. They will likely be disappointed.
Santander is a "compiler," a guy who doesn't offer elite contact quality but puts up solid power numbers anyway thanks to a ridiculous volume of fly balls. His 12.7% HR/FB doesn't jump off the page, and we wouldn't expect it to given his 10.2% rate of Brls/BBE or 94.5 mph average airborne exit velocity. He still slugged 28 bombs because 49.7% of his batted balls were classified as flies. That's Joey Gallo territory.
This can be a great profile for fantasy managers to invest in: Rhys Hoskins and Pete Alonso are two success stories. However, it works best in hitter-friendly environments and Baltimore is anything but. Last season, Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranked 29th in HR factor for RHB with a 66. It's a poor fit.
The downside of these guys is a potentially terrible batting average, but that wasn't a problem for Santander last season with his .299 BABIP. His BABIP was .248 in 2022, and the spike to league average wasn't positive regression but unsustainable luck. Fly balls have the lowest BABIPs of all batted balls, and Santander's 18.2 IFFB% means roughly 1-in-5 are harmless pop-ups.
Santander had a .237 xBA per Statcast last season, and his .426 xSLG likely wouldn't produce enough homers to offset that in fantasy. The Orioles also have a ton of interesting prospects coming out of their farm system right now, and an early slump could see Colton Cowser and/or Heston Kjerstad taking his playing time.
At Santander's current ADP, you could take a reliable catcher like Cal Raleigh (133.72) or Willson Contreras (138.54) or choose elite upside in Hunter Greene (139.42), Jackson Chourio (140.14), or Wyatt Langford (140.48). With so many better options at a similar price, Santander is a Chump.
Andres Gimenez (2B, CLE) ADP: 110.78
Gimenez disappointed fantasy managers in 2023 by hitting .251/.314/.399 with 15 HRs and 30 SB. The category juice was there, but he was expected to be a batting average stalwart as well based on his 2022 line of .297/.371/.466. Based on his price, fantasy gamers are banking on a return to form.
Gimenez's 2022 was extremely lucky based on his .257 xBA and .400 xSLG that year, so we shouldn't expect him to reach that level again. His 2023 was also on the lucky side considering his .245 xBA and .367 xSLG, so even a repeat of last year's modest average is unlikely.
Gimenez doesn't have any oomph in his swing as his Statcast metrics show:
Yikes. The only good number above is his K%, and Gimenez's career-best 18.2% K% wasn't supported by his 12.3% SwStr% or 42.7% chase rate. There are two major reasons Gimenez lost contact quality relative to his 2022 season.
First, his FB% increased from 32.7 to 37.3. This would be good for most hitters, but Gimenez doesn't have the pop to do anything with fly balls. His IFFB% also increased from 12.4% to 14.7%, driving his BABIP down from .353 to .289.
Second, his LD% fell from 21.1 to 17.4. LD% takes a long time to stabilize and Gimenez's career rate is 18.4, so 2022 looks like the outlier here.
Gimenez is fast (29.2 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) and was successful on 83% of his SB attempts last year, so he'll continue running. How many opportunities will he get if he hits .240 and rarely walks, though? He'll also hurt you in the power categories and spent most of last season in the bottom half of Cleveland's weak lineup, reducing his counting stats.
Other options at this price point include Dylan Cease (110.17) and a boatload of strikeouts, reliable closers like Andres Munoz (108.33) and Pete Fairbanks (112.80), and even Esteury Ruiz (120.66). Gimenez cannot hit the ball with authority, making him a Chump.
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