Scouting the Routing: 2024 PLAYERS Championship

2 months ago by Ian McNeill

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After Scottie Scheffler slammed the door shut with a Sunday 66 around Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill, the word on all golf fans' minds is "repeat," as the World No. 1 now returns to another venue where he completed a five-shot demolition of a marquee field. Scheffler's new mallet putter has returned immediate life on the greens, as the best ball-striker we've seen in the last decade managed to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Putting in yesterday's final round.

A confident Scottie Scheffler will put fear into the hearts of many in the locker room this week at TPC Sawgrass, although this venue doesn't exactly need the external pressure of a surging all-time great to cause the best players in the world their share of nightmares. With some of the most iconic (and intimidating) golf shots of the entire season on tap for players this week, the man who's able to forge his name into the history books of past PLAYERS Champions will need to possess an iron nerve (and stomach), around one of the most penal golf courses on the PGA Tour.

Before we get into the illustrious odds board on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on TPC Sawgrass and the 2024 PLAYERS Championship!

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The Golf Course

TPC Sawgrass - Par 72; 7,121 yards

Past Champions

2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-17) over Tyrell Hatton
2022 - Cameron Smith (-13) over Anirban Lahiri
2021 - Justin Thoams (-14) over Lee Westwood
2019 - Rory McIlroy (-16) over Jim Furyk
2018 - Webb Simpson (-18) over Schauffele/Schwartzel/J. Walker
2017 - Si Woo Kim (-10) over Louis Oosthuizen and Ian Poulter

PGA National by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

Average Fairway Width -- 30.7 yards; 10th narrowest on the PGA Tour
Average Driving Distance -- 280.8 yards; 7th lowest on Tour
Driving Accuracy -- 60.0%; 16th lowest on Tour
Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.43; 3rd highest on Tour
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.044); 3rd toughest on Tour

No disrespect to Whistling Straits and Kiawah Island, but when I think of Pete Dye, I’m not exactly thinking of a 7500-yard, wide-open pasture where bombers like Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, and a 50-year-old Phil Mickelson can put on the type of airshows that are typically reserved for the after-hours at the back of a driving range.

Instead, my mind turns to an old-school, positional brand of golf; where thoughtless aggression is acutely punished, and tight doglegs and tricky angles force even the most skilled contestants to play by the designer’s rules. There is perhaps no better example of Dye’s overarching philosophy than TPC Sawgrass: an eclectic mix of double-doglegs, expansive bunkering, and vertical wooden bulkheads that meanders 7200 yards through the North Florida treeline.

Unlike last week at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass will give players ample opportunities to club down for position around this iconic layout. Five of the ten par fours here in Ponte Vedra measure under 425 yards, and even a couple of the par fives (2 and 16), will still be reachable to those who take the safer line with a shorter club off of the tee.

There is good reason for players to remain cautious this week, as very few venues on Tour put as much emphasis on keeping the ball in play. The average missed fairway around TPC Sawgrass will set you back over four-tenths of a stroke, and historically, nearly 6% of those misses have resulted in a trip to the drop zone.

As a result, the optimal driving profile we discuss at many marquee events (Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Riviera, etc.), shifts drastically this week at the PLAYERS Championship. Looking back over the last five seasons, you'll see names like Brian Harman, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, and Charles Howell III continually find their way to the tops of the Driving leaderboards -- notably all names who tend to do most of their annual damage on similarly short, positional courses.

With a past champions list that includes the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas all within the past four years, this talk of positional driving isn't meant to entirely preclude the bombers that routinely populate the SG: OTT leaderboards. However, keeping the ball in play remains priority one when assessing a player's off-the-tee prospects.

Scheffler and JT both finished well inside the top half of the field in driving accuracy, whilst Rory came into the week on one of the best off-the-tee runs of his career (rating over 5% above the field fairway average in each of his previous three starts). Obviously, elite all-around drivers of the ball will still receive a sizable boost to their overall profile, but those who rely exclusively on distance to succeed on Tour could be in for a rude awakening around Sawgrass's claustrophobic, highly penal corridors.

PGA National by the Numbers (Approach):

Green in Regulation Rate -- 62.8%; 16th lowest on the PGA Tour
Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.046); 4th toughest on Tour
Key Proximity Ranges:
- 125-150 yards (accounts for 18.9% of historical approach shots)
- 175-200 yards (16.7%)
- 150-175 yards (15.6%)

Moving onto iron play, where we can be a bit more general in our data sets. Unlike Bay Hill last week, Sawgrass features a fairly balanced proximity distribution, as no 25-yard approach range has historically crested the 20% mark of shots hit. As a result, I’ll be relying more on basic iron metrics like SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained as opposed to the specialized proximity distributions I've discussed in past weeks.

This isn't to say iron play is any less important at TPC Sawgrass, however, as top five finishers here have gained a whopping 41% of their total strokes on approach. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more skewed distribution anywhere else on Tour; making elite iron play far and away the number one separator to look at when assessing player viability.

Since 2019, winners here at the PLAYERS have ranked as the 4th, 5th, 5th, and 6th best iron players for the week via Strokes Gained. Each of them had also recorded at least one top-three finish over the first two months of the season and carried an extended run of form with their approach play coming in.

Given the highly penal nature of its routing, and the historic proclivity for 90, 100, and even 500-1 long shots to find the winner's circle here, variance has long been the calling card of the PLAYERS Championship. However, with four straight winners coming in under 30-1 on the closing line, recent history has told us that the winner this week will not be sneaking up on anybody. The recent results on the PGA Tour do give life to the longshots this week, but I won't be interested in anyone who hasn't shown at least a hint of an elite ball-striking ceiling.

PGA National by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

Scrambling Percentage -- 53.9%; 3.6% below Tour Average
Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.039); 6th toughest on Tour
SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.033); 7th toughest on Tour

With Green in Regulation rates sitting much closer to Tour Average than the other two marquee events we've seen in the last month, it's hard to make a compelling case in favor of short game as nearly the same differentiating factor as we saw at Bay Hill or Riviera. The green complexes here at Sawgrass are far from the largest on Tour, but the receptiveness of the turf and an increased fraction of wedges/short irons we project make these complexes much more manageable than the concrete slabs players were looking at last week with long irons in hand.

In fact, we've routinely seen some of the more gifted ball-strikers in recent PLAYERS history have no problem cresting the 70% mark for the week in greens hit in regulation, and only 47% of top-ten finishers since 2019 have gained more than 1.5 strokes around the greens that week.

An elite short game should never be entirely discounted, but recent history at Sawgrass has shown us that a passable short game is all that's required to contend around TPC Sawgrass. I'll be placing a below-average weight on scrambling stats as a whole, and moreso looking to filter out players who have a severe deficiency in this particular area. These chipping areas do play as some of the more difficult on the PGA Tour, and will have no problem exposing those without the requisite around the green skill.

PGA National by the Numbers (Putting):

Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. feet
Agronomy -- TifEagle Bermudagrass w/ Poa Trivialis overseed
3-Putt Percentage: 3.5% (0.5% above Tour Average)
Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.006); 9th toughest on Tour

One potential pitfall to be aware of when looking back at long-term trends here at TPC Sawgrass is the shift this tournament saw in 2019 from its traditional spot on Mother's Day weekend to the middle of March. Not only have the softer conditions made Sawgrass play quite a bit longer than it had in previous iterations, but the two-month leap forward also saw the departure of pure bermudagrass greens. Over the last four PLAYERS Championships (and this week as well), we've seen overseeded green surfaces more akin to a TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, or Innisbrook than the granular Bermuda we typically associate with the Southeast.

Coincidentally in that time, three of the last four PLAYERS Champions have managed to capture this title whilst gaining less than two strokes for the week on the greens, but historically, putting has been the second most predictive metric to account for when projecting top 5/10/20 finishers in Ponte Vedra. Unless a player possesses a truly world-class ceiling with their ball-striking (Scottie Scheffler), it's hard to imagine anyone conquering this caliber of field without at least a bit of help with their flat-stick -- just be careful of leaning too heavily on more general Bermudagrass splits in the search for correlative past putting performances.

Key Stats Roundup:

Big week for Positional Driving stats like Fairways Gained, Good Drive Percentage, and Driving Accuracy, and players who excel in any of those three metrics will receive a bump in my modeling. However, I'll be primarily looking at players with a historic proclivity to raise their driving baselines around similarly positional setups (Colonial, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Innisbrook, etc.). These corollary tracks (along with historic driving splits around Sawgrass), are the best indicators we have for a player's off-the-tee viability around this sort of venue.
Iron play receives one of the highest weights a metric will ever have in my modeling, as it has historically dominated the other two tee-to-green metrics in predictiveness around TPC Sawgrass. SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created are the main metrics I'll be using, but will also look to GIR rates and Poor Shot Avoidance. An elite iron ceiling is almost a prerequisite for a spot on my betting card.
Because of the historic spike we've seen in GIR percentages we see at Sawgrass (at least as opposed to the last two marquee stops on Tour: Bay Hill and Riviera), I won't be weighing scrambling/around the green play nearly as heavily as I have in recent Signature Events. An elite short game is certainly a bonus, but I'm more concerned with filtering out those with completely no recent life around the greens. Simply serviceable has proven to be more than good enough to find success around Sawgrass's green complexes.
Unlike the last two weeks in Florida, Sawgrass's overseeded greens are much more comparable to the desert courses we saw in Palm Springs/Scottsdale earlier this season than your traditional pure Southeastern Bermudagrass. Innisbrook is another course that will feature similar agronomy on its greens, and historic PLAYERS putting splits are relevant (at least going back to 2019). Be careful when filtering for results past this tournament's move to March and other, grainier Bermuda complexes on the schedule.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Sam Burns

Sam Burns with two back-to-back birdies to reach 6-under & just 1 shot back of leader Shane Lowry @APInv pic.twitter.com/8F1hNVsfNJ

— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) March 8, 2024

If initial offerings are to be believed, it hasn't taken books long to renounce Sam Burns' status as one of the up-and-coming stars on the PGA Tour. After a largely disappointing run of results in 2023, Burns flew out of the gates in the New Year: recording finishes of 6th, 10th, 3rd, and 10th in four starts on the West Coast. That run of play earned him a spot as one of the community's more popular picks last week in Orlando, but a Sunday 78 turned a surefire top 10 into a tie for 30th by week's end.

At prices nearing 40-1 this week, however, I'm not at all opposed to buying Burns stock this week at Sawgrass, as the Louisiana native has shown a significant boost in his ball-striking profile over the last two months. Burns ranks inside the top 1o on Tour thus far in 2024 in Total Driving (bolstered by a nearly 70-spot improvement in driving accuracy compared to last year), and ranks inside the top 15 in Proximity from both 100-150 yards and 200 yards-plus.

Now, as we get settled in a part of the country where Burns has historically done his best work, these recent ball-striking returns have the potential to elevate his game alongside some of the biggest names in the sport. Sam has fared very well driving the ball around similarly positional layouts (Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Colonial, Austin CC, etc.), and you won't find a more prolific putter in the entire golfing world when filtering for green complexes with a similar poa overseed. Over his last 36 rounds at the likes of TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, Innisbrook, and right here at Sawgrass, Burns has gained nearly a full stroke PER ROUND on the greens.

With these sorts of putting baselines, the ball striking doesn't exactly have to be Scottie Scheffler-esque to make your way into contention, and Sam has made his way into contention more recently than you would think around TPC Sawgrass: entering the final round of the 2022 rendition in a tie for second. At 40-1, I think the pendulum has swung too far too fast on Burns. I'll gladly buy the dip here at a better course fit.

Brian Harman

Brian Harman ties the lead at 7-under with a birdie on the 11th. 📈

📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @APInv pic.twitter.com/BZBtroWpEV

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 8, 2024

Although our 2023 Open Champion couldn't quite reverse his historic struggles on the West Coast, a 12th-place finish at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational should sign to all comers that Brian Harman is ready to build on his illustrious trophy cabinet.

Harman recorded his best career finish around Bay Hill's 7,460-yard layout this past week, but maybe more impressively, he attained that finishing position without the aid of his best historic weapon. Harman lost a total of 2.1 strokes with his putter over four days in Orlando -- a roughly 3.5-stroke regression from his career-long Bermuda baselines. To compensate for this rare cold stretch on the greens, Harman finished fourth in the field on Approach (+5.6 Strokes Gained), and as always, barely put a foot wrong off of the tee: ranking third in Good Drive Percentage.

This precision-based approach off of the tee has served the UGA alum quite well over the course of his career at TPC Sawgrass, as Harman has gained strokes off of the tee in eight consecutive PLAYERS Championship starts (ranking 2nd in Total Driving in that time), and recorded three finishes of eighth or better since 2015. He's also found some of his best historic putting success on these overseeded green complexes: ranking third in this field in SG: Putting at the likes of PGA West, Innisbrook, TPC Scottsdale, and right here in Ponte Vedra.

Unlike the innate disadvantages his lack of length would have garnered him at venues like Bay Hill or Riviera over the last few weeks, the positional routing of TPC Sawgrass should be a very comfortable setup for the ever-reliable Harman. Keep in mind that throughout his storied history around Sawgrass, Harman has never once gained more than 2.5 strokes on Approach. If the iron play shows any sort of carryover from last week, the 70/1 pricetags I currently see on market make for one of the best values on the odds board.

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