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Hello everybody and welcome! 2024 spring training is almost underway and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great season-long props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has come up with a ton of season-long picks for us to choose from. In this article, we will cover some of my favorite futures home run plays for the 2024 season.
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MLBSZN Picks for 2024
Juan Soto MORE than 35.5 home runs - Juan Soto has yet to eclipse this total in his career; however, he is coming off of a 35 home run season in San Diego. He will also be entering his age-25 season, which is the beginning of the prime years for many hitters in the major leagues. He is leaving San Diego, known as a notorious pitcher's park, and will be headed to Yankee Stadium, which has a short porch in right field for left-handed hitters and is ranked second in terms of park factor for home runs, according to Statcast. He also has an opportunity to be protected by Aaron Judge if Judge hits behind Soto, which will force pitchers to pitch to him in big situations. This could be one of Soto's best seasons as a big leaguer, and 40 or more home runs is well within reach.
Mike Trout LESS than 31.5 home runs- The concern with Trout has always been his health as he has missed time in every season since 2017. He has also failed to eclipse this total in three of his previous four seasons due to these injuries. I do not like banking on injuries, but playing an under here for that reason seems quite reasonable. Trout has also lost the protection that came from Shohei Ohtani in the lineup this season. That means pitchers will be able to hone in on Trout and he likely will not see much to hit given these circumstances. He will also be entering his age-32 season and beginning to move out of his prime.
Freddie Freeman MORE than 26.5 home runs - Freddie Freeman is a pure hitter and has eclipsed this home run total in three of his previous four seasons, not including the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He has also averaged nearly 30 home runs per season across those four seasons. Shohei Ohtani will now be implemented into this lineup, which only makes it deeper and more likely that Freeman will see some solid pitches to hit this season. Dodger Stadium has also turned into quite the home run hitter's park as they ranked second from 2021-2023 in terms of home run park factor with a factor of 122, according to Statcast.
Randy Arozarena LESS than 23.5 home runs - I wanted to get to an over here with Randy Arozarena, but I just cannot recommend it. He has averaged over 634 plate appearances per season over the previous three seasons, yet he has failed to eclipse this total in all three seasons. Last season, he came very close, but only managed to hit 23 home runs across 654 plate appearances while playing in 154 games. This could have been his ceiling. The Rays also play in the 20th-ranked park for home runs, according to Statcast, so no favors are being given here. Add in the fact that the Rays lineup is not that deep with Josh Lowe expected to hit behind Arozarena this season, and you have a recipe for an under once again in 2024.
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