What Does A Return Season Look Like For Rhys Hoskins? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

January 25, 2024

Rhys Hoskins recently signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers after missing all of 2023 following ACL surgery. What does a return season look like and can he be trusted by fantasy baseball managers in 2024?

It was a tough scene in 2023 spring training when Rhys Hoskins collapsed to the ground attempting to backpedal on a difficult fly ball behind first base in foul territory. Right away, the sight reeked of a blown ACL. That was indeed the case as not only did the injury end his 2023 season before it began but it also ended his six-year tenure with the Phillies.

Philadelphia decided not to qualify Hoskins with Bryce Harper set to handle everyday first-base duties and the Milwaukee Brewers have swooped in and signed the 30-year-old to a two-year, $34 million contract with an opt-out after the 2024 season. It's a nice short-term guarantee coming off a major knee injury for Hoskins with an opportunity to cash in long-term with a productive 2024 season.

Can Hoskins return and help steer the Brewers toward a second consecutive NL Central title? Can he return to form and reward risk-taking fantasy managers? Let's see what Hoskins' return means for the Brewers and fantasy managers alike.

What Does a Return Season Look Like For Rhys Hoskins?

If there was one thing Hoskins delivered in his Phillies tenure, it was consistency. He slugged between 27-34 home runs in each full season from 2018-2022 regardless of how many games he played. His 18 homers as a rookie across just 50 games was a monstrous 58-homer, 162-game pace. His 10 home runs from his COVID-shortened, 41-game 2020 season is a 39.5 home run pace while his 27 long balls in 106 games in 2021 was a 41-homer, full-season pace.

Add it up and Hoskins is a career .242 hitter with 148 home runs, a sizeable .250 isolated power, and a .794 OPS across 667 MLB games. Add in a hefty 13.5% walk rate and Hoskins' bat has produced 26% above the league average, as per his career 126 wRC+. Brewers first basemen combined to rank 28th in both OPS (.681) and wRC+ (83) last season. Clearly, Hoskins is a significant upgrade for Milwaukee.

That's if his knee is in shape and ready to go, the same question fantasy managers will stew over prior to draft day. Hoskins is currently being drafted as the 20th first-base eligible player at around pick No. 206. While RotoBaller also has Hoskins ranked 20th among first basemen, he certainly has the ability to outperform considering his consistency and 30-homer floor he has displayed throughout his career.

ATC is projecting a .789 OPS and a .340 wOBA from Hoskins in 2023, both of which are well below his career .845 OPS and .360 wOBA. They are also projecting his first sub-30 homer (or homer pace) with 25 long balls alongside 71 RBI across 115 games and 544 plate appearances. This appears to be a conservative projection for the slugger but an understandable one considering what Hoskins is returning from following a lost season.

Nonetheless, the floor is solid and the ceiling remains high for a player who has displayed plenty of consistent power in his career. If he is still available after pick No. 200, he makes plenty of sense, even if he isn't your primary first baseman.

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