RADIO
Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of the WR/CB Matchups article. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there are still plenty of opportunities to play other types of playoff contests. Hopefully, this article can help you make profitable decisions on this short slate.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Conference Championship Round
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Both the Chiefs and Ravens have been solid against the pass this season, giving up very few explosive performances to opposing WR groups. The most exploitable spot in the game is Kansas City slots against Baltimore, but the Chiefs have deployed a rotation at that spot all year. Any combination of Mecole Hardman Jr., Rashee Rice, Richie James Jr., or even Kadarius Toney (if he suits up) could see the most beneficial matchup. Rice is the best option.
Over in the NFC, the best matchup of the week belongs to Brandon Aiyuk, who has been hit-or-miss in smash spots this season. The Lions have been absolutely shredded by opposing LWRs this season, including getting torched by Mike Evans last week. Aiyuk could have a huge game.
All 49ers receivers have plus matchups, including Jauan Jennings. While Brian Branch has been outstanding, the Lions scheme allows for plenty of production to slots in the middle of the field. Jennings played well last week and could be in line for another large target share if Deebo Samuel misses the game. If Deebo plays, he also has an exploitable matchup. All of Brock Purdy's receiving options have ceilings this week.
On the other side of that game, the 49ers have given up a decent amount of production to opposing WR groups all year. The best matchup belongs to Jameson Williams, but Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds move around the formation as well. Keep in mind that the total in this game is a healthy 51 points, so the WR matchups are generally much better here than in the AFC.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
The Chiefs have one of the best CB groups in the NFL and have been stingy against WR groups all year. All Ravens WRs get a downgrade in what should be a run-heavy game plan for OC Todd Monken.
On the other side of that game, the Ravens have also been stout against opposing WRs this season. There's a reason Ravens DC Mike Macdonald is in high demand by teams searching for their next head coach. Outside receivers specifically get a downgrade. The health of Marlon Humphrey is also a factor, so make sure to check his status before game time.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week. This series will continue in two weeks for the Super Bowl.
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